The Lubricant is an expensive oil newsletter to which many oil giants subscribe, including Ken Brown (see Problem 3-17 for details). In the last issue, the letter described how the demand for oil products would be extremely high. Apparently, the American consumer will continue to use oil products even if the price of these products doubles. Indeed, one of the articles in the Lubricant states that the chance of a favorable market for oil products was 70%, while the chance of an unfavorable market was only 30%. Ken would like to use these probabilities in determining the best decision. (a) What decision model should be used? (b) What is the optimal decision? (c) Ken believes that the $300,000 figure for the Sub 100 with a favorable market is too high. How much lower would this figure have to be for Ken to change his decision made in part (b)?

Practical Management Science
6th Edition
ISBN:9781337406659
Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Chapter14: Data Mining
Section14.2: Classification Methods
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9 The Lubricant is an expensive oil newsletter to which
many oil giants subscribe, including Ken Brown (see
Problem 3-17 for details). In the last issue, the letter
described how the demand for oil products would be
extremely high. Apparently, the American consumer
will continue to use oil products even if the price of
these products doubles. Indeed, one of the articles in
the Lubricant states that the chance of a favorable
market for oil products was 70%, while the chance
of an unfavorable market was only 30%. Ken would
like to use these probabilities in determining the best
decision.
(a) What decision model should be used?
(b) What is the optimal decision?
(c) Ken believes that the $300,000 figure for the Sub
100 with a favorable market is too high. How
much lower would this figure have to be for Ken
to change his decision made in part (b)?
Transcribed Image Text:9 The Lubricant is an expensive oil newsletter to which many oil giants subscribe, including Ken Brown (see Problem 3-17 for details). In the last issue, the letter described how the demand for oil products would be extremely high. Apparently, the American consumer will continue to use oil products even if the price of these products doubles. Indeed, one of the articles in the Lubricant states that the chance of a favorable market for oil products was 70%, while the chance of an unfavorable market was only 30%. Ken would like to use these probabilities in determining the best decision. (a) What decision model should be used? (b) What is the optimal decision? (c) Ken believes that the $300,000 figure for the Sub 100 with a favorable market is too high. How much lower would this figure have to be for Ken to change his decision made in part (b)?
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