The November 24, 2001, issue of The Economist published economic data for 15 industrialized nations. Included were the percent changes in gross domestic product (GDP), industrial production (IP), consumer prices (CP), and producer prices (PP) from Fall 2000 to Fall 2001, and the unemployment rate in Fall 2001 (UNEMP). An economist wants to construct a model to predict GDP from the other variables. A fit of the model GDP = , + P,IP + 0,UNEMP + f,CP + P,PP + € yields the following output: The regression equation is GDP = 1.19 + 0.17 IP + 0.18 UNEMP + 0.18 CP – 0.18 PP Predictor Coef SE Coef тР Constant 1.18957 0.42180 2.82 0.018 IP 0.17326 0.041962 4.13 0.002 UNEMP 0.17918 0.045895 3.90 0.003 CP 0.17591 0.11365 1.55 0.153 PP -0.18393 0.068808 -2.67 0.023 Predict the percent change in GDP for a country with IP = 0.5, UNEMP = 5.7, CP = 3.0, and PP = 4.1. a. b. If two countries differ in unemployment rate by 1%, by how much would you predict their percent changes in GDP to differ, other things being equal? C. CP and PP are both measures of the inflation rate. Which one is more useful in predicting GDP? Explain. d. The producer price index for Sweden in September 2000 was 4.0, and for Austria it was 6.0. Other things being equal, for which country would you expect the percent change in GDP to be larger? Explain.
The November 24, 2001, issue of The Economist published economic data for 15 industrialized nations. Included were the percent changes in gross domestic product (GDP), industrial production (IP), consumer prices (CP), and producer prices (PP) from Fall 2000 to Fall 2001, and the unemployment rate in Fall 2001 (UNEMP). An economist wants to construct a model to predict GDP from the other variables. A fit of the model GDP = , + P,IP + 0,UNEMP + f,CP + P,PP + € yields the following output: The regression equation is GDP = 1.19 + 0.17 IP + 0.18 UNEMP + 0.18 CP – 0.18 PP Predictor Coef SE Coef тР Constant 1.18957 0.42180 2.82 0.018 IP 0.17326 0.041962 4.13 0.002 UNEMP 0.17918 0.045895 3.90 0.003 CP 0.17591 0.11365 1.55 0.153 PP -0.18393 0.068808 -2.67 0.023 Predict the percent change in GDP for a country with IP = 0.5, UNEMP = 5.7, CP = 3.0, and PP = 4.1. a. b. If two countries differ in unemployment rate by 1%, by how much would you predict their percent changes in GDP to differ, other things being equal? C. CP and PP are both measures of the inflation rate. Which one is more useful in predicting GDP? Explain. d. The producer price index for Sweden in September 2000 was 4.0, and for Austria it was 6.0. Other things being equal, for which country would you expect the percent change in GDP to be larger? Explain.
Linear Algebra: A Modern Introduction
4th Edition
ISBN:9781285463247
Author:David Poole
Publisher:David Poole
Chapter7: Distance And Approximation
Section7.3: Least Squares Approximation
Problem 31EQ
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Transcribed Image Text:The November 24, 2001, issue of The Economist published economic data for 15
industrialized nations. Included were the percent changes in gross domestic product (GDP),
industrial production (IP), consumer prices (CP), and producer prices (PP) from Fall 2000
to Fall 2001, and the unemployment rate in Fall 2001 (UNEMP). An economist wants to
construct a model to predict GDP from the other variables. A fit of the model
GDP = , + P,IP + 0,UNEMP + f,CP + P,PP + €
yields the following output:
The regression equation is
GDP = 1.19 + 0.17 IP + 0.18 UNEMP + 0.18 CP – 0.18 PP
Predictor
Coef SE Coef
тР
Constant
1.18957 0.42180 2.82 0.018
IP
0.17326 0.041962 4.13 0.002
UNEMP
0.17918 0.045895 3.90 0.003
CP
0.17591 0.11365 1.55 0.153
PP
-0.18393 0.068808 -2.67 0.023
Predict the percent change in GDP for a country with IP = 0.5, UNEMP = 5.7, CP =
3.0, and PP = 4.1.
a.
b.
If two countries differ in unemployment rate by 1%, by how much would you predict
their percent changes in GDP to differ, other things being equal?
C.
CP and PP are both measures of the inflation rate. Which one is more useful in
predicting GDP? Explain.
d.
The producer price index for Sweden in September 2000 was 4.0, and for Austria it
was 6.0. Other things being equal, for which country would you expect the percent
change in GDP to be larger? Explain.
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