Troubling Auto Parts Inc. has the following estimates for its new gear assembly project: Price $2,100 per unit; variable costs = $420 per unit; fixed costs = $5.0 million; quantity = 88,000 units. Suppose the company believes all of its estimates are accurate only to within ±15 percent. What values should the company use for the four variables given here when it performs its best-case scenario analysis? What about the worst-case scenario? (Do not round intermediate calculations and round your answer to the nearest whole number, e.g., 32.) Base Best Worst Scenario Unit Sales Unit Price Unit Variable cost Fixed Costs
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- The J.R. Ryland Computer Company is considering a plant expansion to enable the company to begin production of a new computer product. The companys president must determine whether to make the expansion a medium- or large-scale project. Demand for the new product is uncertain, which for planning purposes may be low demand, medium demand, or high demand. The probability estimates for demand are 0.20, 0.50, and 0.30, respectively. Letting x and y indicate the annual profit in thousands of dollars, the firms planners developed the following profit forecasts for the medium-and large-scale expansion projects. a. Compute the expected value for the profit associated with the two expansion alternatives. Which decision is preferred for the objective of maximizing the expected profit? b. Compute the variance for the profit associated with the two expansion alternatives. Which decision is preferred for the objective of minimizing the risk or uncertainty?Hemmingway, Inc. is considering a $5 million research and development (R&D) project. Profit projections appear promising, but Hemmingway’s president is concerned because the probability that the R&D project will be successful is only 0.50. Furthermore, the president knows that even if the project is successful, it will require that the company build a new production facility at a cost of $20 million in order to manufacture the product. If the facility is built, uncertainty remains about the demand and thus uncertainty about the profit that will be realized. Another option is that if the R&D project is successful, the company could sell the rights to the product for an estimated $25 million. Under this option, the company would not build the $20 million production facility. The decision tree follows. The profit projection for each outcome is shown at the end of the branches. For example, the revenue projection for the high demand outcome is $59 million. However, the cost of the R&D project ($5 million) and the cost of the production facility ($20 million) show the profit of this outcome to be $59 – $5 – $20 = $34 million. Branch probabilities are also shown for the chance events. Analyze the decision tree to determine whether the company should undertake the R&D project. If it does, and if the R&D project is successful, what should the company do? What is the expected value of your strategy? What must the selling price be for the company to consider selling the rights to the product? Develop a risk profile for the optimal strategy.Southland Corporation’s decision to produce a new line of recreational products resulted in the need to construct either a small plant or a large plant. The best selection of plant size depends on how the marketplace reacts to the new product line. To conduct an analysis, marketing management has decided to view the possible long-run demand as low, medium, or high. The following payoff table shows the projected profit in millions of dollars: What is the decision to be made, and what is the chance event for Southland’s problem? Construct a decision tree. Recommend a decision based on the use of the optimistic, conservative, and minimax regret approaches.
- Flanders Manufacturing is considering purchasing a new machine that will reduce variable costs per part produced by $0.15. The machine will increase fixed costs by $18,250 per year. The information they will use to consider these changes is shown here.The Siler Construction Company is about to bid on a new industrial construction project. To formulate their bid, the company needs to estimate the time required for the project. Based on past experience, management expects that the project will require at least 24 months, and could take as long as 48 months if there are complications. The most likely scenario is that the project will require 30 months. a. Assume that the actual time for the project can be approximated using a triangular probability distribution. What is the probability that the project will take less than 30 months? b. What is the probability that the project will take between 28 and 32 months? c. To submit a competitive bid, the company believes that if the project takes more than 36 months, then the company will lose money on the project. Management does not want to bid on the project if there is greater than a 25% chance that they will lose money on this project. Should the company bid on this project?Thaler Company bought 26,000 of raw materials a year ago in anticipation of producing 5,000 units of a deluxe version of its product to be priced at 75 each. Now the price of the deluxe version has dropped to 35 each, and Thaler is now deciding whether to produce 1,500 units of the deluxe version at a cost of 48,000 or to scrap the project. What is the opportunity cost of this decision? a. 175,000 b. 375,000 c. 48,000 d. 26,000
- Boxer Production, Inc., is in the process of considering a flexible manufacturing system that will help the company react more swiftly to customer needs. The controller, Mick Morrell, estimated that the system will have a 10-year life and a required return of 10% with a net present value of negative $500,000. Nevertheless, he acknowledges that he did not quantify the potential sales increases that might result from this improvement on the issue of on-time delivery, because it was too difficult to quantify. If there is a general agreement that qualitative factors may offer an additional net cash flow of $150,000 per year, how should Boxer proceed with this Investment?I know that its the thing to do, insisted Pamela Kincaid, vice president of finance for Colgate Manufacturing. If we are going to be competitive, we need to build this completely automated plant. Im not so sure, replied Bill Thomas, CEO of Colgate. The savings from labor reductions and increased productivity are only 4 million per year. The price tag for this factoryand its a small oneis 45 million. That gives a payback period of more than 11 years. Thats a long time to put the companys money at risk. Yeah, but youre overlooking the savings that well get from the increase in quality, interjected John Simpson, production manager. With this system, we can decrease our waste and our rework time significantly. Those savings are worth another million dollars per year. Another million will only cut the payback to about 9 years, retorted Bill. Ron, youre the marketing managerdo you have any insights? Well, there are other factors to consider, such as service quality and market share. I think that increasing our product quality and improving our delivery service will make us a lot more competitive. I know for a fact that two of our competitors have decided against automation. Thatll give us a shot at their customers, provided our product is of higher quality and we can deliver it faster. I estimate that itll increase our net cash benefits by another 2.4 million. Wow! Now thats impressive, Bill exclaimed, nearly convinced. The payback is now getting down to a reasonable level. I agree, said Pamela, but we do need to be sure that its a sound investment. I know that estimates for construction of the facility have gone as high as 48 million. I also know that the expected residual value, after the 20 years of service we expect to get, is 5 million. I think I had better see if this project can cover our 14% cost of capital. Now wait a minute, Pamela, Bill demanded. You know that I usually insist on a 20% rate of return, especially for a project of this magnitude. Required: 1. Compute the NPV of the project by using the original savings and investment figures. Calculate by using discount rates of 14% and 20%. Include salvage value in the computation. 2. Compute the NPV of the project using the additional benefits noted by the production and marketing managers. Also, use the original cost estimate of 45 million. Again, calculate for both possible discount rates. 3. Compute the NPV of the project using all estimates of cash flows, including the possible initial outlay of 48 million. Calculate by using discount rates of 14% and 20%. 4. CONCEPTUAL CONNECTION If you were making the decision, what would you do? Explain.Baghdad Company produces a single product. They have recently received the result of a market survey that indicates that they can increase the retail price of their product by 10% without losing customers or market share. All other costs will remain unchanged. If they enact the 10% price increase, what will be their new break-even point in units and dollars? Their most recent CVP analysis is:
- Emerald Island Company is considering building a manufacturing plant in County Kerry. Predicting sales of 100,000 units, Emerald Isle estimates the following expenses: An Irish firm that specializes in marketing will be engaged to sell the manufactured product and will receive a commission of 10% of the sales price. None of the U.S. home office expense will be allocated to the Irish facility. Required: 1. If the unit sales price is 2, how many units must be sold to break even? (Hint: First compute the variable cost per unit.) 2. Calculate the margin of safety ratio. 3. Calculate the contribution margin ratio.Shelby Industries has a capacity to produce 45.000 oak shelves per year and is currently selling 40,000 shelves for $32 each. Martin Hardwoods has approached Shelby about buying 1,200 shelves for a new project and is willing to pay $26 each. The shelves can be packaged in bulk; this saves Shelby $1.50 per shelf compared to the normal packaging cost. Shelves have a unit variable cost of $27 with fixed costs of $350,000. Because the shelves dont require packaging, the unit variable costs for the special order will drop from $27 per shelf to $25.50 per shelf. Shelby has enough idle capacity to accept the contract. What is the minimum price per shelf that Shelby should accept for this special order?Nico Parts, Inc., produces electronic products with short life cycles (of less than two years). Development has to be rapid, and the profitability of the products is tied strongly to the ability to find designs that will keep production and logistics costs low. Recently, management has also decided that post-purchase costs are important in design decisions. Last month, a proposal for a new product was presented to management. The total market was projected at 200,000 units (for the two-year period). The proposed selling price was 130 per unit. At this price, market share was expected to be 25 percent. The manufacturing and logistics costs were estimated to be 120 per unit. Upon reviewing the projected figures, Brian Metcalf, president of Nico, called in his chief design engineer, Mark Williams, and his marketing manager, Cathy McCourt. The following conversation was recorded: BRIAN: Mark, as you know, we agreed that a profit of 15 per unit is needed for this new product. Also, as I look at the projected market share, 25 percent isnt acceptable. Total profits need to be increased. Cathy, what suggestions do you have? CATHY: Simple. Decrease the selling price to 125 and we expand our market share to 35 percent. To increase total profits, however, we need some cost reductions as well. BRIAN: Youre right. However, keep in mind that I do not want to earn a profit that is less than 15 per unit. MARK: Does that 15 per unit factor in preproduction costs? You know we have already spent 100,000 on developing this product. To lower costs will require more expenditure on development. BRIAN: Good point. No, the projected cost of 120 does not include the 100,000 we have already spent. I do want a design that will provide a 15-per-unit profit, including consideration of preproduction costs. CATHY: I might mention that post-purchase costs are important as well. The current design will impose about 10 per unit for using, maintaining, and disposing our product. Thats about the same as our competitors. If we can reduce that cost to about 5 per unit by designing a better product, we could probably capture about 50 percent of the market. I have just completed a marketing survey at Marks request and have found out that the current design has two features not valued by potential customers. These two features have a projected cost of 6 per unit. However, the price consumers are willing to pay for the product is the same with or without the features. Required: 1. Calculate the target cost associated with the initial 25 percent market share. Does the initial design meet this target? Now calculate the total life-cycle profit that the current (initial) design offers (including preproduction costs). 2. Assume that the two features that are apparently not valued by consumers will be eliminated. Also assume that the selling price is lowered to 125. a. Calculate the target cost for the 125 price and 35 percent market share. b. How much more cost reduction is needed? c. What are the total life-cycle profits now projected for the new product? d. Describe the three general approaches that Nico can take to reduce the projected cost to this new target. Of the three approaches, which is likely to produce the most reduction? 3. Suppose that the Engineering Department has two new designs: Design A and Design B. Both designs eliminate the two nonvalued features. Both designs also reduce production and logistics costs by an additional 8 per unit. Design A, however, leaves post-purchase costs at 10 per unit, while Design B reduces post-purchase costs to 4 per unit. Developing and testing Design A costs an additional 150,000, while Design B costs an additional 300,000. Assuming a price of 125, calculate the total life-cycle profits under each design. Which would you choose? Explain. What if the design you chose cost an additional 500,000 instead of 150,000 or 300,000? Would this have changed your decision? 4. Refer to Requirement 3. For every extra dollar spent on preproduction activities, how much benefit was generated? What does this say about the importance of knowing the linkages between preproduction activities and later activities?