Use sensitivity analysis to determine which decision is the best when the probability of S1 is 31%, 67%, and 81%. OC.D.A D, B. C B, C, D OB, D, C OA, B, D States States of Nature (1-P) Decision s1 ABCD 15 17 19 22 $2 -8 0 -2 -9
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- Your company must decide whether to introduce a new product. The sales of the product will be either at a high (success) or low (failure) level. The conditional value for this decision is as follows Decision High Low Introduce $4,000,000 -$2,000,000 Do Not Introduce 0 0 Probability 0.3 0.7 You have the option to conduct a market survey to sharpen you market demand estimate. The survey costs $200,000. The survey provides incomplete information about the sales, with three possible outcomes: (1) predicts high sales, (2) predicts low sales, or (3) inconclusive. Such surveys have in the past provided these results Result High Low Predicts High 0.4 0.1 Inconclusive 0.4 0.5 Predicts Low 0.2 0.4 c) Draw the complete decision tree, including the survey option. Explain where the values on the decision tree come fromAssume that alternatives A, B,C, D are considered. Alternative C is better than each of the other 3 alternatives in all the 10 attributes considered, except one, but this one C is by far the worst. Which of the decision making models below would be the mostly likely to result in aliminating alternative C? a) addictive weighting b) dominance c) satisficing d) disjunctive resolutionConstruct a decision tree and answer the following questions: What is the EMV of each decision alternative? Which action should be selected? What is the expected value with perfect information? What is the expected value of perfect information?
- Need answer fast - In a decision problem under uncertainty where Return-On-Investment (ROI) is the objective pursued, valid decision criteria are (check all that applies) (a) Maximin Regret (b) Minimin (c) Maximax (d) Minimax.Eloise runs a small business called GraphX, which creates one-of-a-kind holographic stickers for well-known rock bands. Currently, Eloise is glad that none of her competitors have figured out how to mimic her way of creating holographic effects. Eloise currently has a _____________ that she hopes is ___________. A.Competitive advantage; sustainable B.Profit model; strategic C.Tactical plan; ethical D.Strategic plan; semi-permanent E.Competitive advantage; innovative F.Profit model; innovativeSelect the least accurate statement. A) The expected monetary value (EMV) criterion represents the long-run average of uncertain outcomes, so it should only be used for recurring decisions. b) For each possible decision and each possible outcome, the payoff table lists the associated monetary value. c)The certainty equivalent is the certain dollar amount a risk-averse decision maker would accept in order to avoid a gamble altogether. D) For a risk-averse decision maker, the certainty equivalent is less than the expected monetary value (EMV).
- Which of the following does NOT apply to decision making under uncertainty? a. Minimax regret b. Maximin return c. Maximize expected return d. Maximax returnMaximax, Maximin, Minimax RegretLearning material: Watch this videoLab Scenario:Imagine a local entrepreneur is considering starting a business and has three options: open a coffeeshop, a bookshop, or a fusion coffee-bookshop. The entrepreneur is uncertain about the market'sreaction to these businesses. The possible market conditions are: favorable, neutral, and unfavorable.Data (Payoff Table in USD):Business Option Favorable Market Neutral Market Unfavorable MarketCoffee Shop 150,000 70,000 -30,000Bookshop 100,000 60,000 -20,000Fusion Shop 130,000 80,000 -10,000Positive values represent profits, and negative values represent losses.Assignment Steps:1. Maximax (Optimist's Criterion) Approach:For each business option, identify the maximum possible payoff.First Question What is the business option with the highest of these maximum payoffs? (5points)2. Maximin (Pessimist's Criterion) Approach:For each business option, identify the minimum possible payoff.Second Question What is the…decribe the steps in the rational decision making process with example,include points : Recognizing and defining the decision situation,Identifying alternatives,Evaluating alternatives,Selecting the best alternative,Implementing the chosen alternative,Following up and evaluating the results.
- A graph that helps decision makers use probability theory by showing the expected values of decisions in varying circumstances is known as a(n) a. Gantt chart b. probability curve c. bar graph d. decision tree In the rational model of decision making, evaluation of alternatives a. is the last step. b. should be as objective as possible. c. can only be done with the help of a decision tree. d. is the only step that requires subjective rationalityAnswer A.2 a-e a-c is in the picture here is d and e d) What is the qually likely decision? e) Develop a decision tree. Assume each outcome is equally likely, then find the highest EMV.You often hear about the trade-off between risk and reward. Is this trade-off part of decision making under uncertainty when the decision maker uses theEMV criterion? For example, how does this work in investment decisions?