What is the forecast for week 16, using a two-period moving average? Round your answer to the nearest cent. $ What is the forecast for week 16, using a three-period moving average? Round your answer to the nearest cent. $ Compute MSE for the two- and three-period moving average models to determine the best model. Do not round intermediate calculations. Round your answers to two decimal places. 2-period MA 3-period MA MSE

What is the forecast for week 16, using a two-period moving average? Round your answer to the nearest cent. $ What is the forecast for week 16, using a three-period moving average? Round your answer to the nearest cent. $ Compute MSE for the two- and three-period moving average models to determine the best model. Do not round intermediate calculations. Round your answers to two decimal places. 2-period MA 3-period MA MSE

Practical Management Science

6th Edition

ISBN:9781337406659

Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Chapter13: Regression And Forecasting Models

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 40P: The Baker Company wants to develop a budget to predict how overhead costs vary with activity levels....

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The Baker Company wants to develop a budget to predict how overhead costs vary with activity levels. Management is trying to decide whether direct labor hours (DLH) or units produced is the better measure of activity for the firm. Monthly data for the preceding 24 months appear in the file P13_40.xlsx. Use regression analysis to determine which measure, DLH or Units (or both), should be used for the budget. How would the regression equation be used to obtain the budget for the firms overhead costs?
The following two demand sets are to be used to test two different basic exponential smoothingmodels. The first model uses 0.1, and the second uses 0.5. In both cases, the modelshould be initialized with a beginning forecast value of 50; that is, the ESF forecast for period 1made at the end of period 0 is 50 units. In each of the four cases (two models on two demandsets), compute the average forecast error and MAD. What do the results mean?Demand Set I Demand Set IIPeriod Demand Period Demand1 51 1772 46 2833 49 3904 55 4225 52 5106 47 6807 51 7168 48 8199 56 92710 51 10 7911 45 11 7312 52 12 8813 49 13 1514 48 14 2115 43 15 8516 46 16 2217 55 17 8818 53 18 7519 54 19 1420 49 20 16
A restaurant wants to forecast its weekly sales. Historical data (in dollars) for fifteen weeks are shown below. Use Excel and the Moving Averagetemplate to answer the following questions. Time Period Observation 1 1,536 2 1,521 3 1,403 4 1,250 5 1,142 6 1,313 7 1,501 8 1,301 9 1,289 10 1,521 11 1,472 12 1,500 13 1,654 14 1,569 15 1,300 Plot the data and provide insights about the time series. The correct graph is -Select-graph Agraph Bgraph Cgraph DItem 1 . A. B. C. D. What is the forecast for week 16, using a two-period moving average? Round your answer to the nearest cent. $ What is the forecast for week 16, using a three-period moving average? Round your answer to the nearest cent. $ Compute MSE for the two- and three-period moving average models to determine the best model. Do not round intermediate calculations. Round your answers to two decimal places. 2-period MA…
The table below shows the sales of widgets (in units) over the past 5 years. Using exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant of 0.2, what is the forecast for next year? The initial forecast (for 5 years ago) was 1,200 units. Forecast: Time Sales 5 years ago 1,140 4 years ago 1,220 3 years ago 1,450 2 years ago 1,090 Last year 1,150 (Do not round intermediate calculations, round your final answer to the nearest whole number.)
Explain in between 400 and450 words the differences between forecasting and budgeting and also define the following terms: Double-loop Feedback and Feed -back loop explaining this as it applies in the Control Circle.
The sales and profit of a clothing organization are represented in the table below. This given data is used in forecasting and mainly decision making, accordingly: Sales , x ( in millions of dollars) Profits, y (in millions of dollars) 1.5 0.1 3.5 0.12 5.4 0.13 6.5 0.17 8 0.21 10 0.27 11 0.25 12 0.24 15 0.28 16 0.30 16.5 0.356 21 0.44 22 0.475 State three advantages of forecasting within an organization. What type of forecasting is being done within this organization? Explain why. pleasse make sure the answer is correct 100%
Canton Supplies, Inc., is a service firm that employs approximately 100 people. Because of the necessity of meeting monthly cash obligations, the chief financial officer wants to develop a forecast of monthly cash requirements. Because of a recent change in equipment and operating policy, only the past seven months of data are considered relevant. The change in operations has had a great impact on cash flow. What forecasting model do you recommend? Use the Moving Average and Exponential Smoothing Excel templates or other Excel tools to help you answer this question. Cash Required Cash Required Month ($1,000) Month ($1,000) 1 186 5 233 2 219 6 241 3 216 7 204 4 270 Find the best number of months to use in a moving average forecast based on MSE. Do not round intermediate calculations. Round your answers to two decimal places. Number of months MSE 2 3 4 The model is the best. Find the best single exponential smoothing model by…
A restaurant wants to forecast its weekly sales. Historical data (in dollars) for fifteen weeks are shown below. Use Excel and the Moving Average template to answer the following questions. Time Period Observation 1 1,575 2 1,568 3 1,454 4 1,400 5 1,220 6 1,384 7 1,602 8 1,315 9 1,376 10 1,515 11 1,346 12 1,588 13 1,674 14 1,564 15 1,378 Plot the data and provide insights about the time series. The correct graph is . A. B. C. D. What is the forecast for week 16, using a two-period moving average? Round your answer to the nearest cent. $ What is the forecast for week 16, using a three-period moving average? Round your answer to the nearest cent. $ Compute MSE for the two- and three-period moving average models to determine the best model. Do not round intermediate calculations. Round your answers to two decimal places. 2-period MA 3-period MA MSE
Sarah has been custom manufacturing sweaters now for 7 years. Her annual sales are shown below. Year Sales 1 178 2 215 3 233 4 301 5 337 6 330 7 361 What are her forecasted sales for year 8 using a 3 year moving average? What are her forecasted sales for year 8 using a 5 year weighted average where w1=.4, w2=.3, w3=.15, w4=.1, w5=.05? What are her forecasted sales for year 8 using exponential smoothing? Assume year 7 forecast was 323. Select your own alpha. Which forecast method is the best for Sarah to use based on MAD? Why?
What is the strategic importance of forecasting for a business such as Pinkie Ice Cream ? What are the possible challenges faced by organizations that do not utilize forecasting in the planning of their operations?
What should be our forecast accuracy target if there is a high degree of volatility in customer orders and long lead times? We have a new chief sales officer who is proposing that we should forecast in dollars, not in units/cases. I have never heard of anyone forecasting in dollars. It is true that dollarized forecasts can help Sales in knowing precisely what sales target they should be hitting. But, is it the best practice?
What are the advantages and disadvantages of aggregating demand from a forecasting view? Are there other things that should be considered when going from multiple DCs to a DC?