XYZ is legendary investor and has outperformed the S&P 500 index for 12 years in a row. Suppose that N = 8,935 investment managers follow random uncorrelated strategies, each of which has a 50% probability of beating the S&P 500 index every year. Then, let X be the probability that at least two of the 8,935 managers will beat the S&P 500 for 12 years in a row simply by chance. Also, le tY be a constant equal to 0.01 (in other words Y is equal to 1%). Then the value of X divided by Y is equal to (Round your final answer to 2 decimal places, e.g. 1.13)
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- Suppose that there are two types of entrepreneur: skilled and unskilled. Skilled entrepreneurs have a probability p = 2/3 of success if they get the loan. Unskilled entrepreneurs have zero chance of being successful. Despite that, assume that unskilled entrepreneurs want to take up the loan, because it is cool to say you have a startup. The bank does not observe skill. The share of skilled entrepreneurs is s. Question 1: 1A). TRUE OR FALSE: If L = 2, R = 6, and s = 0.5, then the bank would have zero expected profits, but entrepreneurs would never take up the loan. 1B. ) TRUE OR FALSE: If the loan amount is L = 2, the payback amount is R = 3, and the share of skilled entrepreneurs is s = 0.9, then the bank will have positive expected profits.You are considering a $500,000 investment in the fast-food industry and have narrowed your choice to either a McDonald’s or a Penn Station East Coast Subs franchise. McDonald’s indicates that, based on the location where you are proposing to open a new restaurant, there is a 25 percent probability that aggregate 10-year profits (net of the initial investment) will be $16 million, a 50 percent probability that profits will be $8 million, and a 25 percent probability that profits will be −$1.6 million. The aggregate 10-year profit projections (net of the initial investment) for a Penn Station East Coast Subs franchise is $48 million with a 2.5 percent probability, $8 million with a 95 percent probability, and −$48 million with a 2.5 percent probability. Considering both the risk and expected profitability of these two investment opportunities, which is the better investment? Explain carefully.2. Kier, in The scenario, wants to determine how each of the 3 companies will decide on possible new investments. He was able to determine the new investment pay off for each of the three choices as well as the probability of the two types of market. If a company will launch product 1, it will gain 50,000 if the market is successful and lose 50,000 if the market is a failure. If a company will launch product 2, it will gain 25,000 if the market is successful and lose 25,000 if the market will fail. If a company decides not to launch any of the product, it will not be affected whether the market will succeed or fail. There is a 56% probability that the market will succeed and 44% probability that the market will fail. What will be the companies decision based on EMV? What is the decision of each company based on expected utility value?
- Consider the constant relative risk aversion utility of wealth function from Chapter 3 for an investor with gamma parameter equal to 0.25: U(W) = W^(0.25)/(0.25) = 4W^(0.25). Suppose this investor is faced with a 50-50 bet to receive nothing or to receive 1000 dollars. What's a fair price for this bet to the investor? I.e., what is the certainty equivalent wealth (CEW) associated with this bet, for this investorTrue/False a. Consider a strategic game, in which player i has two actions, a and b. Let s−i be some strategy profile of her opponents. If a IS a best response to s−i, then b is NOT a best response to s−i. b. Consider the same game in (a). If a IS NOT a best response to s−i, then a does NOT weakly dominates b. c. Consider the same game in (a). If a mixed strategy of i that assigns probabilities 13 and 23 to a and b, respectively, IS a best response to s−i, SO IS a mixed strategy that assigns probabilities 32 and 13 to a and b, respectively. d. Consider the same game in (a). If a mixed strategy of i that assigns probabilities 13 and 23 to a and b, respectively, is NOT a best response to some strategy profile of her opponents, s−i, NEITHER is a mixed strategy that assigns probabilities 32 and 13 to a and b, respectively. e. Consider the same game in (a). If a IS a best response to s−i, SO IS any mixed strategy that assigns positive probability to a. f. Consider the same game in (a). If a…Exercise 3: Risky Investment Charlie has von Neumann-Morgenstern utility function u(x) = ln x and has wealth W = 250, 000. She is offered the opportunity to purchase a risky project for price P = 160, 000. 1 1 With probability p = 2 the project will be a success and return V > 160, 000. With probability 1 −p = 2 the project will fail and be worthless (i.e. it returns 0). For simplicity assume there is no interest between the time of the investment and the time of its return, that is r = 0 . How large must V be in order for Charlie to want to purchase the risky project? [Hint: What is Charlie’s expected utility is she does not purchase the project? What is Charlie’s expected utility is she purchases the project?]
- Apple and Google are interested in hiring a new CEO. Both firms have the same set of final candidates for the CEO position: Indra, Cao, and Virginia. Both firms need to decide who to make a job offer to, and the hiring process is such that they each only make one job offer.If, say, Apple makes a job offer to Indra and Google makes a job offer to one of the other candidates, then Apple’s probability of success in hiring Indra is pIndra. The same is true for Google. If they both make a job offer to Indra, each has probability pIndra/2 of success. It has been estimated that pIndra = 20%, and pCao = pVirginia = 30% (Note that these probabilities need not add up to 100%).Suppose that both Apple and Google attach a valuation of 10 to successfully hiring Indra, and a valuation of 7 to successfully hiring each of the other candidates. A hiring attempt, if unsuccessful, has a valuation of zero. (a) Convert this story into a game by completing the following game table;GoogleIndra Cao…Apple and Google are interested in hiring a new CEO. Both firms have the same set of final candidates for the CEO position: Indra, Cao, and Virginia. Both firms need to decide who to make a job offer to, and the hiring process is such that they each only make one job offer. If, say, Apple makes a job offer to Indra and Google makes a job offer to one of the other candidates, then Apple’s probability of success in hiring Indra is pIndra. The same is true for Google. If they both make a job offer to Indra, each has probability pIndra/2 of success. It has been estimated that pIndra = 20%, and pCao = pVirginia = 30% (Note that these probabilities need not add up to 100%). Suppose that both Apple and Google attach a valuation of 10 to successfully hiring Indra, and a valuation of 7 to successfully hiring each of the other candidates. A hiring attempt, if unsuccessful, has a valuation of zero. Convert this story into a game by completing the following game table; Google…A risk-averse expected-utility maximizer has initial wealth w0 and utility function u. She facesa risk of a financial loss of L dollars, which occurs with probability π. An insurance companyoffers to sell a policy that costs p dollars per dollar of coverage (per dollar paid back in theevent of a loss). Denote by x the number of dollars of coverage.(a) Give the formula for her expected utility V (x) as a function of x.(b) Suppose that u(z) = −e−zλ, π = 1/4, L = 100 and p = 1/3. Write V (x)using these values. There should be three variables, x, λ and w. Find the optimal value of x,as a function of λ and w, by solving the first-order condition (set the derivative of the expectedutility with respect to x equal to zero). (The second-order condition for this problem holds butyou do not need to check it.) Does the optimal amount of coverage increase or decrease in λ,where λ > 0?(c) Repeat exercise (b), but with p = 1/6.(d) You should find that for either (b) or (c), the optimal coverage…
- In any year, the weather can inflict storm damage to a home. From year to year, thedamage is random. Let Y denote the dollar value of damage in any given year.Suppose that in 95% of the years Y = 0, but in 5% of the years Y = 20,000.a. What is the mean of the damage in any year?b. What is the standard deviation of the damage in any year?c. Consider an “insurance pool” of 100 people who homes are sufficientlydispersed so that, in any year, the damage to different homes can be viewed asindependently distributed random variables. What is the probability that ?exceeds $2000?Let U(x)= x^(beta/2) denote an agent's utility function, where Beta > 0 is a parameter that defines the agent's attitude towards risk. Consider a gamble that pays a prize X = 10 with probability 0.2, a price X = 50 with probability 0.4 and a price X = 100 with probability 0.4. Compute the agentís expected utility for such gamble and find the value of Beta such that the agentis risk neutral? Suppose B= 1, what is the certainty equivalent of the gamble described above? What is the Arrow-Pratt measure of absolute risk aversion?Farmer Brown faces a 25% chance of there being a year with prolongeddrought, with zero yields and zero profit, and he faces a 75% chance of a normal year, with good yields and$100,000 profit. These probabilities are well-known. Suppose that an insurance company offered a droughtinsurance policy that pays the farmer $100,000 if a prolonged drought occurs. Assume that the farmer’sutility function is u(c) = ln(c). He has initial wealth of $40,000. What is the economic intuition on why X > Y? Confine your answer to at most three sentences.