Applying the Value-at-Risk Method You use today’s spot rate of the Brazilian real to forecast the spot rate of the real for one month ahead. Today’s spot rate is $0.4558. Use the VaR method to determine the maximum percentage loss of the Brazilian real over the next month based on a 95 percent confidence level. Use the spot exchange rates at the end of each of the last six months to conduct your analysis. Forecast the exchange rate that would exist under these conditions.
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