Textbook Problem

Juvenile Delinquency According to a study at the Oregon Social Learning Center, boys who had been arrested by age 14 were 17.9 times more likely to become chronic offenders than those who had not.⁸⁴ Use these data to estimate the percentage of chronic offenders who had been arrested by age 14 in a city where 0.1% of all boys have been arrested by age 14. [HinT: Use Bayes’ formula rather than a tree.]