Probability Distribution of Forecasts Assume that the following regression model was applied to historical quarterly data: e t = a 0 + a 1 I N T t + a 2 I N F t − 1 + μ t where: e t = percentage change in the exchange rate of the Japanese yen in period t INT t = average real interest rate differential (U.S. interest rate minus Japanese interest rate) over period t INF t − 1 = inflation differential (U.S. inflation rate minus Japanese inflation rate) in the previous period a 0 , a 1 , a 2 = regression coefficients μ t = error term Assume that the regression coefficients were estimated as follows: a 0 = 0.0 a 1 = 0.9 a 2 = 0.8 Also assume that the inflation differential in the most recent period was 3 percent. The real interest rate differential in the upcoming period is forecasted as follows: If Stillwater, Inc., uses this information to forecast the Japanese yen’s exchange rate, what will be the probability distribution of the yen’s percentage change over the upcoming period?

FindFind

International Financial Management

14th Edition
Madura
Publisher: Cengage
ISBN: 9780357130698
FindFind

International Financial Management

14th Edition
Madura
Publisher: Cengage
ISBN: 9780357130698

Solutions

Chapter 9, Problem 19QA
Textbook Problem

Probability Distribution of Forecasts Assume that the following regression model was applied to historical quarterly data: e t = a 0 + a 1 I N T t + a 2 I N F t 1 + μ t

where: e t = percentage change in the exchange rate of the Japanese yen in period t

INT t =

average real interest rate differential (U.S. interest rate minus Japanese interest rate) over period t

INF t 1 = inflation differential (U.S. inflation rate minus Japanese inflation rate) in the previous period a 0 , a 1 , a 2 = regression coefficients μ t = error term

Assume that the regression coefficients were estimated as follows: a 0 = 0.0 a 1 = 0.9 a 2 = 0.8

Also assume that the inflation differential in the most recent period was 3 percent. The real interest rate differential in the upcoming period is forecasted as follows:

Chapter 9, Problem 19QA, Probability Distribution of Forecasts Assume that the following regression model was applied to

If Stillwater, Inc., uses this information to forecast the Japanese yen’s exchange rate, what will be the probability distribution of the yen’s percentage change over the upcoming period?

This textbook solution is under construction.

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