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全球大宗商品年报 莫尼塔全球宏观研究云平台 2015 年 1 月 6 日星期二 2015：原油再平衡元年 原油 核心提示 2014 年油价暴跌最核心的驱动因素在于供给的增加，而油价反弹同样只能 依赖供给出现减少。2015 年供给变化的可能路径主要有三种： 1）委内瑞 拉国内出现军事对抗导致其国内原油产量骤减；2）美国部分页岩油企业出 现破产倒闭；3）下半年美国原油产量增速减慢结合美元升值放缓。 这三种情形都将触发原油供需再归于平衡，从而支撑油价出现反弹。2015 年原油料呈现先跌后涨格局，我们预计布伦特全年中枢为 65 美元/桶。 报告摘要  油价暴跌缘起供给激增，反弹也必须依赖供给减少。14 年 7 月利比亚 恢复原油出口后产量激增，是本轮油价暴跌的导火索；而 OPEC 大打 价格战争夺市场份额，加剧了原油跌势。不过归根到底，页岩气革命 后美国产量大幅增长才是油价下跌的根本原因。短期内经济增长对于 原油需求的拉动有限，因此寄望油价反弹还必须依赖供给端的减少。  2015 年油价先跌后涨，全年中枢 65 美元/桶。15

RACISM AND ETHNIC DISCRIMINATION IN NICARAGUA Myrna Cunningham Kain With the collaboration of: Ariel Jacobson, Sofía Manzanares, Eileen Mairena, Eilen Gómez, Jefferson Sinclair Bush November 2006 Centro para la Autonomía y Desarrollo de los Pueblos Indígenas Center for Indigenous Peoples’ Autonomy and Development Racism and Ethnic Discrimination in Nicaragua November 2006 Contents 1. 2. Introduction Structure of the study 2.1 Scope and methodology 4 7 7 3. Racism

MODERN HISTORY -2012 Topic one – USA 1919-1941 Topic two – conflict in the pacific Topic three – Douglas MacArthur Topic Four – World War I TOPIC ONE – USA 1919-1941 USA 1920’S * the radio age * felt like istory had turned a corner and never going back * stock market * black Thursday November 24 1929 * the jazz age * a speakeasyyyyyyy How significant were the Republican policies in causing the great depression? The significance of the republic policies

Complete Listing of Chapter Opening Cases, Insight Cases, E-commerce in Action Cases, and Case Studies CHAPTER 1 THE REVOLUTION IS JUST BEGINNING Opening Case: Pinterest: A Picture Is Worth a Thousand Words Insight on Technology: Will Apps Make the Web Irrelevant? Insight on Business: Start-Up Boot Camp Insight on Society: Facebook and the Age of Privacy Case Study: The Pirate Bay: Searching for a Safe Haven CHAPTER 2 E-COMMERCE BUSINESS MODELS AND CONCEPTS Opening Case: Twitter’s Business

CHAPTER 1 Changing Nature of Human Resource Management After you have read this chapter, you should be able to: ● Identify four major HR challenges currently facing organizations and managers. List and define each of the seven major categories of HR activities. Identify the three different roles of HR management. Discuss the three dimensions associated with HR management as a strategic business contributor. Explain why HR professionals and operating managers must view HR management as an