BUS-4072_FouchTashia_Week6Assignment

Problem 16A: ROLLED DOWN unit forecast for part C is 22, F is 2, I is 254, and L is 3. Can you please shows the answers in excel with the formula in it, becuase I need to practices this kinda question for my upcoming exam.

Problem 16A: ROLLED DOWN unit forecast for part C is 22, F is 2, I is 254, and L is 3.

Unit 4 Exercises Question 4.1 Use exponential smoothing with trend adjustment to forecast demand for period 11. Let a = 0.5, B = 0.3, and let the initial trend value be 12 and the initial forecast be 200. 田 Actual Period Demand 1 200 2 212 3 214 4 222 236 221 7 240 8 244 9 250 10 266 Question 4 2

need help with this question! Note:- • Do not provide handwritten solution. Maintain accuracy and quality in your answer. Take care of plagiarism. • Answer completely. • You will get up vote for sure.

Forecasting at Hard Rock Cafe Watch: Forecasting at Hard Rock Cafe # Foresting With the growth of Hard Rock Cafe-from one pub in London in 1971 to more than 185 restaurants in 74 countries today -came a corporatewide demand for better forecasting. Hard Rock uses long-range forecasting in setting a capacity plan and intermediate-term forecasting for locking in contracts for leather goods (used in jackets) and for such food items as beef, chicken, and pork. Its short-term sales forecasts are conducted each month, by cafe, and then aggregated for a headquarters view. The heart of the sales forecasting system is the point-of-sale (POS) system, which, in effect, captures transaction data on nearly every person who walks through a cafe's door. The sale of each entrée represents one customer; the entrée sales data are transmitted daily to the Orlando corporate headquarters' database. There, the financial team, headed by Todd Lindsey, begins the forecast process. Lindsey forecasts monthly…

Given below are the demands of a certain product over the past 10 weeks. Week | 1 2 3 4 | 5 67|89 | 10 Demand 50 64 66 68 67 63 69 67 65 66 (a) Forecast the demand for the 13th week using the following techniques: i. 3- week weighted moving average with weights 0.2, 0.3, and 0.5 ii. Exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant equal to 0.85 ii. Adjusted exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant equal to 0.85 and smoothing constant for trend equal to 0.65 (b) Compute for the accuracy of each model using the mean squared error. Based on the computed MSE, what is the best forecasting technique for this time series?

PROBLEM 2:The manager of a large manufacturer of industrial pumps prepare forecasts for a six- month period.  Month Demand Forecast     1     492               488     2     470   484     3     485               480     4     493               490     5     498               497     6                 492   493 Required: Compute for the MAD, MSE, and MAPE.

Actual sales data (in pounds) for roasted coffee beans at a grocery store are given in the table below: Week 1 2345 Actual Sales 180 201 165 174 192

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QUESTIONS: Quarterly demand for a washing machine is as shown. 1. After obtaining initial estimates for level, trend, and seasonal factors. forecast the demand for the first quarter of year III using Winter's model with a 6- - 0,25 where x is the last two digits of your student number. 2. Make a tracking signal analysis for the forecast and evaluate Maks Year I II Quarter 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 Demand 1900 1224 4000 5600 4800 1048 6200 8000

QUESTION 4 A company's focus should be on how to move from a demand-driven mentality to a forecast-driven mentality. True False

Problem 11-11 (Static) A manager is attempting to put together an aggregate plan for the coming nine months. She has obtained a forecast of expected demand for the planning horizon. The plan must deal with highly seasonal demand; demand is relatively high in periods 3 and 4, and again in period 8, as can be seen from the following forecasts.  Period 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Total Forecast 190 230 260 280 210 170 160 260 180 1,940   The department now has 20 full-time employees, each of whom produces 10 units of output per period at a cost of $6 per unit. Beginning inventory for period 1 is zero. Inventory carrying cost is $5 per unit per period, and backlog cost is $10 per unit per period. The manager has decided to use part-time workers to assist during seasonal peaks. The cost per unit, including hiring and training, is $11. The output rate is 10 units per worker per period for all workers. A maximum of 10 part-time workers can be used, and the same number of part-time workers…

•• 4.31 North Carolina, for the past 24 weeks are shown in the following table: Emergency calls to the 911 system of Durham, WEEK 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 CALLS 50 35 25 40 45 35 20 30 35 20 15 40 WEEK 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 CALLS 55 35 25 55 55 40 35 60 75 50 40 65 a) Compute the exponentially smoothed forecast of calls for each week. Assume an initial forecast of 50 calls in the first week, and use a = .2. What is the forecast for week 25? b) Reforecast each period using a = .6. c) Actual calls during week 25 were 85. Which smoothing con- stant provides a superior forecast? Explain and justify the measure of error you used. Px

Week 1 2 4 Forecast Method 1 0.90 1.05 0.97 1.22 Actual Demand 0.72 1.05 1.00 0.97 Week 1 2 3 4 Forecast Method 2 0.82 1.19 0.90 1.17 Actual Demand 0.72 1.05 1.00 0.97 0 The MAD for Method 1 = thousand gallons (round your response to three decimal places). The mean squared error (MSE) for Method 1 = thousand gallons (round your response to three decimal places). The MAD for Method 2 = thousand gallons (round your response to three decimal places). The mean squared error (MSE) for Method 2 = thousand gallons (round your response to three decimal places).

Compute for MAD, MSE and MAPE using Moving Average Model (past 3 Weeks), В. А. Exponential Smoothing Model (a = 0.2) С. What is your sales forecast for Period 8 using A and B? Period Actual Sales Forecast Error Error Error |Error %| 1 39 44 3 40 4 45 5 38 6. 43 7. 39 MAD MSE МАРЕ Compute for MAD, MSE, and MAPE using the Moving Average Model (past 3 weeks). Use two decimal places and do not put unit of measurement (UoM). (for example 35.00 or 35.40) MAD is Blank 1. MSE is Blank 2. MAPE is Blank 3%. Blank 1 Add your answer Blank 2 Add your answer Blank 3 Add your answer Compute for MAD, MSE, and MAPE using the Exponential Smoothening Model (a=0.2). Use two decimal places and do not put unit of measurement (UoM). (for example 35.00 or 35.40) MAD is Blank 1. MSE is Blank 2. MAPE is Blank 3%. Blank 1 Add your answer Blank 2 Add your answer Blank 3 Add your answer What is your sales forecast for period 8 using Moving Average Model and Exponential Smoothing Model? Use two decimal places and…

(White A) QUESTION: "Successful Companies examine the future outcome using previous evidence."Does RMG in Bangladesh employ this forecasting technique in order for their business to continue?

Answer number 4 only. Full solution. Unique answers only.

Problem 1 Forecasting • All analysis and calculations and report must be done in a single (ONE) Excel file.• Put your name at the top of the worksheet.• Make Excel do all of the calculations. (Instructor must be able to see your cell-reference formulas.)• Include report/answers below the forecasting calculations.       o Make sure answers are clear, complete and easy to find.       o Your report must include:                a. Presentation of forecasts                b. Explanation of why you chose each of the methods 1. Tom Simpson, Director of the Chamber of Commerce for Exeter township is investigating the past ten years oftourist visits to the area. The following data has been gathered on number of tourists who signed into the localinformation center. Year     Number of tourists1          7002          2483          6334          4585          14106          15887          16298          13019          145510        1989 Tom is interested in implementing a forecasting system and is…

On Week a) Item: P24 hand 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Forecast 30 30 30 40 40 40 45 45 Customer Orders 13 8 4 PAB 20 Available to Promise MPS b) Determine if each customer order will be accepted. Order Amount Week Accept (Y/N) 1 40 2 30 3 4 30 25 462M 3 Update the MPS time-phased record for accepted orders. Item: P24 Forecast Customer Orders Problem 3: The MPS planner at Murphy Motors uses MPS time-phased records for planning end-item production. The planner is currently working on a schedule for the P24, one of Murphy's top-selling motors. The planner uses a production lot size of 70 and a safety stock of 5 for the P24 motor. a) Complete the MPS time-phased record for product P24. Use the table on the left. b) Determine if Murphy Motors can accept each of the following customer orders. Update the MPS time- phased record for accepted orders. Order 1234 Amount 40 Desired Week 4 30 30 25 623 8 4 On Week hand 1 2 3 4 5 6 30 30 30 40 40 40 74 45 45 PAB 20 Available to Promise MPS On hand = 20

2. Calculate the exponential smoothing forecast for week eight using a=0.2.   Week Sales Forecast 1 39   2 44   3 40   4 45   5 38   6 43   7 39   a. 41.63 b. 39.98 c. 40.54 d. 40.03 Instruction: This is consists of one (1) multiple choice question. The question requires deep analysis. Choose  the appropriate response for the question. A detailed working out should accompany the responses.

Forecast February by: Arithmetic Average Weighted moving average, weights are 8 and 2. Which method is better based on MFE PERIOD Demand Sept. 60 Oct. 50 Nov. 60 Dec. 70 Jan. 60 Feb. ?

Question #2 Month  Demand 1 45 2 48 3 43 4 48 5 49 6 54 7 47 8 50 9 46 10 47       Using the table above, calculate two forecasts using the following method:-  First, for periods 4 through 10, develop the exponentially smoothed forecasts using a forecast for period 3 (F3) of 45.0 and an alpha of 0.4.  ii. Calculate the weighted moving average for periods 4 through 10, using weights of .70, .20, and .10, with 0.70 applied to the most recent data.   iii. Calculate the mean absolute deviation (MAD) for each forecasting procedure. Which forecasting procedure would you select? Why?

Weighted moving average using Excel:3.1 Calculate demand forecast for weeks 7-24 using 6 week weighted moving average with weights 0.55, 0.1, 0.1, 0.1, 0.1, 0.053.2 Calculate demand forecast for weeks 7-24 using 6 week weighted moving average with weights 0.2, 0.2, 0.2, 0.15, 0.15, 0.13.3 Plot the two weighted moving average forecasts together with the actual demand. Comment on the obtained graph.3.4 Using the forecasting error measures seen in class, evaluate the forecasting error of each method. Accordingly which method is better?

Question Four:                                                                             ABC Company sells home appliances. Daily sales for a six-day period were as follows: Day Sales Saturday 20 Sunday 24 Monday 30 Tuesday 40 Wednesday 36 Thursday 44   Forecast Friday sales volume using each of the following methods: A three-day moving average.   A four day weighted average using weights of 0.1, 0.2, 0.3 and 0.4 Exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant equal to 0.2, assuming Wednesday forecast of 42.             Determine a linear trend line equation for ABC Company. Use the trend equation to forecast Friday sales volume.

1.A firm has 77 units of a product on hand. Forecasts of demand are 26 units per week. An MPS quantity of 90 units is planned to arrive in period 3. Customer orders are 29 for period 1, 27 for period 2, and 19 for period 3.What is the projected on-hand inventory at the end of period 3? (use excel to show formulas)

CASE EIGHT GLASSES A DAY (EGAD) The EGAD Bottling Company has decided to introduce a new line of premium bottled water that will include several "designer" flavors. Marketing manager Georgianna Mercer is predicting an upturn in demand based on the new offerings and the increased public awareness of the health benefits of drinking more water. She has prepared aggregate forecasts for the next six months, as shown in the following table (quantities are in tankloads). Month May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Total Forecast 50 60 70 90 80 70 420 Production manager Mark Mercer (no relation to Georgianna) has developed the following information. (Costs are in thousands of dollars.) Regular production cost $1 per tankload 60 tankloads Regular production capacity Overtime production cost Subcontracting cost Holding cost Backordering cost Beginning inventory Question $1.6 per tankload $1.8 per tankload $2 per tankload per month Backlogs are not allowed 0 tankloads Among the strategies being considered are…

TOPIC 3  FORECASTING, SALES & OPERATIONS PLANNING| What do you understand by; I.qualitative and quantitative forecast method . ii. the role of forecasting in supply chain management iii. short range and Long range forecastsElaborate clearly for each answer.b. Given the demand and forecast values shown in the following Table Q3b, i.Determine the three-period moving average forecast for November. ii. Analyze the exponential smoothing forecast for November using a = 0.35. iii. Evaluate the forecast error for September. C. Elaborate the purpose of sales & operation planning, and describe the S&OP process.d. Calculate the available-to-promise for periods 1,3 and 5 for the Table Q3d below

Distinguish between Planning and Forecasting. Answer must briefly.