C207_Task 2_Final
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C207 Data Driven Decisions
College of Business, Western Governors University
August 27, 2023
lOMoARcPSD|17574477
A: Business Question
A business question that could be asked based upon the scenario given is whether MPC would maximize profits by developing a new drug line, exploring new applications for their existing drug line, or doing nothing at all. B: Relevant Data Values
The relevant data values for this decision tree analysis are present in the following table:
Probability of
Immediate Need
Demand Units
Low (Unfavorable
market)
High (Favorable
market)
Profit Per
Unit
LOW (Unfavorable
Market
HIGH
(Favorable
Market)
ALTERNATIVES
0.31
0.69
0.65
1355
4133
NEW DRUG LINE
0.39
0.61
0.77
1911
5577
EXISTING DRUG
W/CHANGES
0.23
0.77
0.87
258
657
NO CHANGES
This data table represents the three alternatives presented in the stated business question. For each alternative, both demand units and probability are given along with the profit per unit. The demand units and probability are presented in both favorable and unfavorable markets. We utilize this information to calculate both the Payoff and Expected Value for each alternative.
C1. Please see attached Excel spreadsheet for the completed decision tree analysis.
C2. Justification
Decision tree analysis are most useful when a company is doing risk assessment and wishes to make data driven decisions when there are multiple options to consider. A decision tree analysis is justified in this situation because it allows for comparison of all possible options in both favorable and unfavorable market conditions along with other market factors like demand and probability. “Decision trees use the weight of each risk and estimates to determine the potential impact for various alternatives.” (MindEdge Inc. 2022). In this scenario, MPC needs to make a decision that will keep them competitive in the market while maximizing their profits. The data revealed that by exploring some additional applications for their existing drug line, they would have an Expected Value of $3193.39, as opposed to Expected Values of $2126.68 for developing a new drug line, and $491.75 for leaving things as they are.
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