PS444

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University of California, Davis *

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115A

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Economics

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Feb 20, 2024

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Question 1: Risk Preferences A lvaro and Estela live in the village of Los Reyes in the state of Michoacan, Mexico 1 . They each have zero wealth, so their consumption is equal to the income they earn from their economic activity. Each of them must choose one (and only one) of the following three activities: Activity 1: Full time farming. Strawberry farming is risky because of a combination of weather and pests. Under full time farming, the farmer works 7 days per week on their farm. There is a 65 % probability of having a GOOD harvest and a 35 % chan c e of having a BAD harvest. If the harvest is GOOD, the farmer earns an income of $200. If the harvest is BAD, the farmer earns an income of only $50. Activity 2: Full time construction work. This activity has no risk. An individual who decides to work full time in construction earns $1 44 with certainty. Activity 3: Part-time farming. In this third activity, the farmer works during the week as a strawberry farmer and works in construction during the weekend. Since he is not able to work full time on the farm, the probability of having a GOOD harvest and earning $200 drops to 4 0%, and the probability of having a BAD harvest and earning only $50 increases to 6 0%. The individual also earns $25 with certainty as a construction worker (the person earns this $25 from construction in addition to his farm income under both a GOOD and BAD harvest). (a) What is the expected value of consumption for each activity? Report your answers in Table 1 below. Table 1 Activity Expected Value of Consumption: E(C) 1: Full time farming 2: Full time construction work 3: Part time farming 1 Mexico has become one of the leading exporters of strawberries in the past 15 years. Michoacan is the most important strawberry producing region in Mexico. (0.65×200)+(0.35×50) = 147.5 144 (0.40×200+25) + (0.60×50+25)= 135
We also know that A lavaro and Estela view risk differently, and that is why they have different utility functions (listed below). A lvaro : Estela : ?(𝐶) = 2𝐶 ?(𝐶) = √𝐶 (b) Using those utility function s , compute the certainty equivalent (CE), the risk premium (RP) and expected utility (EU) associated with each of the three activities for each individual. Report your answers in Table 2 below. Report precise final results, which means that you should use all decimals of your intermediate results to get your final answer. Round your final answers to TWO decimal places. Table 2 Individual Activity EU CE RP A lvaro 1: Full time farming A lvaro 2: Full time construction work A lvaro 3: Part time farming Estela 1: Full time farming Estela 2: Full time construction work Estela 3: Part time farming 295 147.5 147.5 288 144 144 270 135 135 11.66 136.25 68.13 12 144 72 11.20 125.44 62.75
(c) Which activity will be chosen by each individual? If an individual is indifferent between two activities (say A or B), write "Activity A OR Activity B" Table 3 Individual Choice of Activity A lvaro Estela (d) Which type of risk preferences describe each individual? (Risk Neutral, Risk Averse, or Risk Loving?) Table 4 Individual Risk Preferences A lvaro Estela Question 2: Conventional Insurance Continue to use the same context from question 1, but now consider conventional insurance. Juana is an insurance agent who offers conventional crop insurance contracts only to full time farmers. She is not interested in offering insurance to part time farmers. The contracts are straightforward. At the beginning of the season, farmers pay a premium of $52.5 . At the end of the season, Juana pays farmers an indemnity payment of $150 if the farmer had a BAD harvest. If the farmer had a GOOD harvest, Juana doesn’t pay the farmer anything. For parts a - d, assume the world is described by symmetric information. In other words, Juana can wri te and enforce a contract that requires the farmer to choose full time farming. (a) What is Juana ’s expected profit from this contract? ( Juana ’s profit is just the premium she collects from the farmer minus the indemnity payment she makes to the farmer). full time construction risk loving full time farming risk averse
(b) What is the expected consumption for an individual who chooses full-time farming with Juana ’s insurance contract (Activity 4)? (c) What is the expected utility associated with full-time farming with an insurance contract (Activity 4) for A lvaro and Estela ? Report TWO decimal places. Table 5 (d) Now assume that each individual can choose between the four available activities: Full Time Farming without Insurance (Activity 1 above), Full time construction work (Activity 2 above), Part Time Farming without insurance (Activity 3 above) and Full Time Farming with Juana ’s insurance contract (Activity 4). Which activity will each individual choose? If an individual is indifferent between two activities (say A or B), write "Activity A OR Activity B Table 6 Individual Choice of Activity A lvaro Estela Individual Expected Utility from Activity 4 A lvaro Estela 0 295 activity 1 OR activity 4 147.5 12.15 Activity 4
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