Graded Problem Set 2
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ECO374: Forecasting and Time Series Econometrics
Department of Economics, University of Toronto
Graded Problem Set 2
Fall 2023
This Problem Set is based on the R file
Case Study 2.Rmd.
1.
Read into RStudio data on GDP, unemployment, target rate, CPI, from the file
Macro_data_can.csv
. The start of the data series should be adjusted to 2012-01-01. The data
should be converted to class xts (see R file
1c. Time Series in R with xts
).
2.
Using the Johansen test, obtain the number
r
of cointegration links.
3.
Perform Time-series validation for the following models, each with lags 1, 2, and 3:
a.
VAR model
b.
TVAR model with one threshold
c.
VEC model
4.
Write a brief comment stating the model that yields the smallest time series validation MSE for
each variable.
Submission details:
Submit one pdf file with your R code, computer output and graphs, generated by Markdown from
RStudio. The file should be uploaded to Quercus by the due date and time. There is 10% grade penalty
for each new day of late submission.
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Related Questions
Refer to the data file to answer the following questions.
1. Calculate the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at current prices for each quarter.
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The following table reports 2018 transactions that occurred in the United States. Prices in 2018 and 2016 (base year) are also given.
Use the worksheet to answer questions below. Please make sure to show any formulas you used, calculations and your work.
i. Which of the listed transactions should not be used in U.S. GDP calculation? Please include one reason for each transaction you think should not be included in U.S. GDP calculation.
ii. Based on the transactions you decided to include in U.S. GDP, calculate nominal GDP in 2018.
ii. Based on the transactions you decided to include in U.S. GDP, calculate real GDP in 2018.
iii. Calculate the GDP Deflator in 2018.
Price per
Unit in
Price per Unit Quantity in
Item
2016
in 2018
2018
(Base Year)
Bottles Wine from France
$15
$20
10
Boxes of Cereal produced in Battle Creek, MI
$5
$4
20
Used Tires
$12
$15
5
Shares of Twitter Stock
$8
$10
15
Hours of Swimming Lessons at the Y in
$4
$6
8
Kalamazoo, MI
GDP deflator in 2018 was...
Answer:
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The table provides information about the money wage rate and the CPI in the United States for the past five years.
*Real-time data provided by Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), Federal Reserve Bank of Saint Louis.
In July 2022, the nominal wage rate was $ ___ per hour. >>> Answer to the nearest 2 decimal places.
Screenshot attached
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The graph included below approximates United States business cycles between quarter one of 1947 and quarter three of 1951. The shaded region
denotes periods of six or more consecutive months of declining real gross domestic product (real GDP).
2170
2070
E
1970
1870
1770
1947
REAL GOP (Billions of dollars)
1948
1949
YEAR
1950
1951
Source: "Current-dollar and Real GDP Bureau of Economics Analysis, last modified May 1, 13, accessed May 15, 13, http://www.bea.gov/national/shs/gdplev.xls
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The following graph approximates business cycles in the United States from the first quarter of 1953 to the third quarter of 1957. The vertical blue bar
coincides with periods of 6 or more months of declining real gross domestic product (real GDP).
(?
2700
2600
2500
2400
2300
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
YEAR
Source: "Current-dollar and Real GDP," Bureau of Economics Analysis, last modified May 1, 13, accessed May 15, 13, http://www.bea.gov/national/xls/gdplev.xls.
Notice that real GDP trends upward over time but experiences ups and downs in the short run. These short-run fluctuations in real GDP are often
referred to as
True or False: Small ups and downs in real GDP follow a consistent, predictable pattern.
O True
O False
Which of the following probably occurred as the U.S. economy experienced increasing real GDP in 1954? Check all that apply.
O Car sales declined.
O The unemployment rate declined.
O Corporate profits increased.
O Consumer spending declined.
REAL GDP (Billions of dollars)
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Actual and Potential GDP (a FRED question): Using the FRED database, locatethe Congressional Budget Ofce’s measure of potential GDP by searching for“GDPPOT.” Using the “Add Data Series” option, add the series “GDPA” (realannual GDP) to this graph. Adjust the sliders to show the data from around1985 to the present.
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The country of Economica's GDP deflator and nominal GDP in three different years are shown in the table.
Year
Nominal GDP
GDP Deflator
year 1
$25128
122
year 2
$54566
108
year 3
$30967
100
The base year, i.e. the base period, is Year 3. For years 1-3, please obtain the real GDP. Round your answers to the nearest dollar.
What is the real GDP for year 1?
real GDP: $
What is the real GDP for year 2?
real GDP: $
What is the real GDP for year 3?
real GDP: $
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This table indicates the historical level of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the United States for 1921, 1922, and 1923.
Complete the table by (1) selecting the inflation rates for 1922 and 1923, and (2) indicating for each year whether there has been inflation, deflation, or hyperinflation.
Year
CPI
Inflation Rate
Change in Price Level
1921
17.9
—
—
1922
16.8
1923
17.1
What rates of inflation for 1924 would be consistent with disinflation between 1923 and 1924? Check all that apply.
1.7%
11.8%
51.8%
1.8%
What rates of inflation for 1924 would be consistent with hyperinflation? Check all that apply.
15.0%
-1.8%
100.0%
120.0%
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The seasonally adjusted data below depict the performance of the economy of the United
States in 1949.
Year/Quarter
1949/Q1
1949/Q2
1949/Q3
1949/Q4
Select one:
OA. Recession and disinflation.
Annual Percent Change Nominal GDP
-7.4
-5.2
+2.3
-3.3
Which of the following describes the performance of the economy of the United States in
1949?
OB. Expansion and disinflation.
OC. Expansion and deflation.
OD. Recession and deflation.
Annual Percent Change Real GDP
-5.4
-1.4
+4.2
-3.3
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20(1).pdt
它 ☆
5/6
001
Math It Graph It Write It
Business Cycle Question
Using the actual data from the table please construct a business cycle model. Remember to include the actual
adjusted GDP (2005 Dollars) as well as the GDP trend line. Number your horizontal axis, time, with 2000 as
the origin at one year increments. Label your vertical in 1000s of billions, just like the table. Use a number
line break on the vertical and number from $10,000 billion to $14,000 billion in 250 billion increments.
GDP in Billions,
Current Dollars
Year
GDP In Billions,
2005 Dollars
2000
9,951.5
11,216.4
2001
10,286.2
11,337.5
2002
10,642.3
11,543.1
2003
11,142.2
11,836.4
2004
11,533.3
12,246.9
2005
12,623.0
12,623.0
2006
13,377.2
12,958.5
2007
14,028.7
13,206.4
2008
14,291.5
13,161.9
2009
13,939.0
12,703.1
2010
14,526.5
13,088.0
http://www.bea.gov/national/
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Perform these same calculations for 2018 and 2019, and enter the results in the following table.
2017
2018
2019
Price
Cost
Price
Cost
Price
Cost
Quantity in Basket
(Dollars)
(Dollars)
(Dollars)
(Dollars)
(Dollars)
(Dollars)
Notebooks
10
20
1
3
Calculators
1
50
50
54
75
Large coffees
200
1
200
1
1
Energy drinks
100
200
4
Textbooks
10
100
1,000
120
150
Total cost
1,470
Price index
100
Suppose the base year for this price index is 2017.
In the last row of the table, calculate and enter the value of the CSPI for the remaining years.
Between 2017 and 2018, the CSPI increased by
Between 2018 and 2019, the CSPI increased by
%
Which of the following, if true, would illustrate why price indexes such as the CSPI might overstate inflation in the cost of going to college? Check all
that apply.
As the price of energy drinks increased relative to the price of coffee between 2017 and 2019, students decreased their consumption of
energy drinks and increased their consumption of coffee.
Professors…
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Please see below. I need help with these. True or false.
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Budget Analysis (9’)
The table below presents a brief summary of City A’s total spending, local GDP, and population changes. Read the table and answer the following questions.
2010
2020
Total spending ($ million)
89
104.12
Local GDP ($ millions)
110
134
Population
50,000
56,275
CPI deflators (2012=1)
0.96
1.05
Assuming City A’s population grows at a constant rate in the next decade. Based on the information in the table, estimate City A’s population in 2030.
Calculate per capita spending in 2010 and 2020, respectively, using constant dollars.
Calculate the compound annual growth rate of per capita spending from 2010 to 2020
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Problem 05-11 (algo)
Skyler is downloading labor market data for the most recent month, but her connection is slow. So far
this is all she has been able to collect:
Unemployment rate
Participation rate
Not in the labor force
Find the working-age population, the labor force, the number of employed workers, and the number of
unemployed workers.
Instructions: Enter your responses rounded to one decimal place.
Working-age population:
Labor force:
million
6%
62.5%
63.5 million
Number of employed workers:
Number of unemployed workers:
million
million
million
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The following graph approximates business cycles in the United States from the first quarter of 1955 to the third quarter of 1959. The vertical blue bar
coincides with periods of 6 or more months of declining real gross domestic product (real GDP).
2800
REAL GOP (Billions of dollars)
N
2700
2000
2500
2400
1055
1906
1967
True
YEAR
False
Source: "Current-dollar and Real GDP Bureau of Economics Analysis, last modified May 1, 13, accessed May 15, 13, http://www.bea.gov/national/xl/gdple.al
1958
Notice that real GDP trends upward over time but experiences ups and downs in the short run. These short-run fluctuations in real GDP are often
referred to as
1959
True or False: Short-term fluctuations in real GDP are irregular and unpredictable.
Car sales increased.
Consumer spending increased.
Total real income declined.
The unemployment rate increased.
Which of the following probably occurred as the U.S. economy experienced declining real GDP in 19577 Check all that apply.
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Comparison of the consumer price index over a longer period of time is problematic because:
O The index does not include imported goods and services
O Most people have a higher nominal income
Consumption patterns may have changed over time
O Price data from many years ago may be uncertain
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Fill in the missing values in the table below.
Instructions: Round your answers to 1 decimal place.
Nominal GDP
Real GDP
Price Index
Year
(Billions)
(Billions)
(Year 0 = 100)
%3D
1
15,214.4
101.7
2
15,270.6
103.8
16,405.3
15,604.7
4
15,862.2
107.4
5
17,643.1
16,232.2
6.
18,286.6
110.5
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The year 2015
Base Year Price Index = (120)
Base Year Output = (4 million)
The year 2016
Current Year Price Index = (140)
Current Year Output = (5 million)
1.Calculate the following:
Nominal G.D.P. in 2016
Real G.D.P. in 2016
2. Calculate MPS for the following data:
Y1=2000 S1=300
Y2=4000 S2=800
3.Calculate MPC for the following data:
Y1=2500 C1=1500
Y2=5000 C2=2500
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Q2. Go to the Statistics Canada website https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1810000501 to view the annual average Consumer Price Index for Canada. Change the Reference period years from 1999 to 2021 and click Apply to see the updated data table. Answer the following questions and provide data and calculations where necessary
In which ways might the CPI data on food not accurately reflect what is really happening to prices in this product category?
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Please give a detailed solution with an explanation for the following images. Please double-check your answers and sources before submitting the final answer. For the graph please make sure it is visible, clear, and label the coordinates too.
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Econ1101 Macro Principles -001
Homework: Homework - Chapter
Lindsay Cola &9/26/19 5:20 PM
6
Score: 0.33 of 1 pt
Save
13 of 25 (13 complete)
Text Problem 9
HW Score: 47.33 %, 11.83 of 25 pts
Question Help
In addition to the national Consumer Price Index (CPI) discussed in this chapter, the Bureau of Labor Statistics produces several regional CPI indices. These are constructed in the same way as the national CPI, just at a smaller scale: in a given
city, researchers gather prices for a bundle of goods every month and then construct an index to track price changes of that bundle within the city. The following table shows the CPI indices (base period 1982-1984 100) for San
Francisco-Oakland-San Jose and Los Angeles-Riverside-Orange County, from 2007 to 2014:
Year
Los Angeles-Riverside-Orange
Country
San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose
2007
216.048
217.338
2008
222.767
225.008
2009
224.395
223.219
2010
227.469
225.894
2011
233.390
231.928
2012
239.650
236.648
2013
245.023
239.207
2014
251.985…
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Make an inflation rate forecasts graph based on the description. I need help please. Based on our analysis of the last ten years of inflation data, we project that inflation rates in the Philippines under the Marcos administration will remain relatively stable over the next five years. From 2011 to 2020, inflation rates in the country ranged from 1.2% to 6.7%, with an average of 3.4%. For the next five years, we expect inflation rates to remain within the range of 2.5% to 4.5%, with an average of 3.5%.
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please also do the graph part of the question. thnkyouuuuuuuu
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A hypothetical country of Narnia produces only movies and popcorn. Quantities and prices of these goods
for the last several years are shown in the following table. The base year is 2017.
Year
2016
2017
2018
2019
Price
(Dollars per movie)
7.6%
7.5%
Movies
7.2%
7%
10.00
11.00
12.00
12.00
Quantity
Quantity
(Movies) (Dollars per bag) (Bags)
500
600
650
625
Popcorn
Refer to Table 23-5. What was the rate of inflation for Narnia in 2019? (Hint: round-off to the nearest
decimal point)
Price
5
4
5
6
1,000
900
950
925
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Set the GDP expenditure to search for the 4th Quarter data from last year (example Q4/2021). Set Prices: to “Current prices,” and set Seasonal adjustment: to “Seasonally adjusted at annual rates.” Click apply to view the data. There is a button to Download the data if you require.
The data below in Column A shows items from Canada’s national accounts in Qtr4 of 202x. The values are in x$1,000,000.
Use the expenditure approach to calculate the value of the GDP in column B.
Use the income approach to calculate the value of the GDP in column C.
Explain in your own words the reason why the aggregate GDP income equals the aggregate GDP expenditure.
GDP Category
(A)
Qtr4-202x Values
(B)
GDP from Expenditure
Approach
(C)
GDP from Income
Approach
Consumer consumption expenditure
1,385
Government consumption and expenditure
659
Rent and interest
347
Investments by businesses
535
Corporate profit…
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The following graph approximates business cycles in the United States from the first quarter of 1947 to the third quarter of 1951. The vertical blue bar coincides with periods of 6 or more months of declining real gross domestic product (real GDP).
1947194819491950195121702070197018701770REAL GDP (Billions of dollars)YEAR
Source: “Current-dollar and Real GDP,” Bureau of Economics Analysis, last modified May 1, 13, accessed May 15, 13, http://www.bea.gov/national/xls/gdplev.xls.
Notice that real GDP trends upward over time but experiences ups and downs in the short run. A period of declining real GDP, such as the blue-shaded period in 1948, is known as .
True or False: Small ups and downs in real GDP follow a consistent, predictable pattern.
True
False
Which of the following probably occurred as the U.S. economy experienced increasing real GDP in 1950? Check all that apply.
Industrial production declined.
Consumer spending increased.…
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The graph compares employment rates in three sectors of the economy, in the UK between
2000-2010. Summarize the information by selecting and reporting the main features and make
comparisons where relevant - write between 150 to 200 words.
Add a caption and comment on the information given.
Employment rates, by sector, in the UK economy, 2000-2010
...
60
40-
Public sector
- Private secor
-Selempkoyed
30-
20-
10
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005 2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
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- Refer to the data file to answer the following questions. 1. Calculate the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at current prices for each quarter.arrow_forwardThe following table reports 2018 transactions that occurred in the United States. Prices in 2018 and 2016 (base year) are also given. Use the worksheet to answer questions below. Please make sure to show any formulas you used, calculations and your work. i. Which of the listed transactions should not be used in U.S. GDP calculation? Please include one reason for each transaction you think should not be included in U.S. GDP calculation. ii. Based on the transactions you decided to include in U.S. GDP, calculate nominal GDP in 2018. ii. Based on the transactions you decided to include in U.S. GDP, calculate real GDP in 2018. iii. Calculate the GDP Deflator in 2018. Price per Unit in Price per Unit Quantity in Item 2016 in 2018 2018 (Base Year) Bottles Wine from France $15 $20 10 Boxes of Cereal produced in Battle Creek, MI $5 $4 20 Used Tires $12 $15 5 Shares of Twitter Stock $8 $10 15 Hours of Swimming Lessons at the Y in $4 $6 8 Kalamazoo, MI GDP deflator in 2018 was... Answer:arrow_forwardThe table provides information about the money wage rate and the CPI in the United States for the past five years. *Real-time data provided by Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), Federal Reserve Bank of Saint Louis. In July 2022, the nominal wage rate was $ ___ per hour. >>> Answer to the nearest 2 decimal places. Screenshot attachedarrow_forward
- The graph included below approximates United States business cycles between quarter one of 1947 and quarter three of 1951. The shaded region denotes periods of six or more consecutive months of declining real gross domestic product (real GDP). 2170 2070 E 1970 1870 1770 1947 REAL GOP (Billions of dollars) 1948 1949 YEAR 1950 1951 Source: "Current-dollar and Real GDP Bureau of Economics Analysis, last modified May 1, 13, accessed May 15, 13, http://www.bea.gov/national/shs/gdplev.xlsarrow_forwardThe following graph approximates business cycles in the United States from the first quarter of 1953 to the third quarter of 1957. The vertical blue bar coincides with periods of 6 or more months of declining real gross domestic product (real GDP). (? 2700 2600 2500 2400 2300 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 YEAR Source: "Current-dollar and Real GDP," Bureau of Economics Analysis, last modified May 1, 13, accessed May 15, 13, http://www.bea.gov/national/xls/gdplev.xls. Notice that real GDP trends upward over time but experiences ups and downs in the short run. These short-run fluctuations in real GDP are often referred to as True or False: Small ups and downs in real GDP follow a consistent, predictable pattern. O True O False Which of the following probably occurred as the U.S. economy experienced increasing real GDP in 1954? Check all that apply. O Car sales declined. O The unemployment rate declined. O Corporate profits increased. O Consumer spending declined. REAL GDP (Billions of dollars)arrow_forwardActual and Potential GDP (a FRED question): Using the FRED database, locatethe Congressional Budget Ofce’s measure of potential GDP by searching for“GDPPOT.” Using the “Add Data Series” option, add the series “GDPA” (realannual GDP) to this graph. Adjust the sliders to show the data from around1985 to the present.arrow_forward
- The country of Economica's GDP deflator and nominal GDP in three different years are shown in the table. Year Nominal GDP GDP Deflator year 1 $25128 122 year 2 $54566 108 year 3 $30967 100 The base year, i.e. the base period, is Year 3. For years 1-3, please obtain the real GDP. Round your answers to the nearest dollar. What is the real GDP for year 1? real GDP: $ What is the real GDP for year 2? real GDP: $ What is the real GDP for year 3? real GDP: $arrow_forwardThis table indicates the historical level of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the United States for 1921, 1922, and 1923. Complete the table by (1) selecting the inflation rates for 1922 and 1923, and (2) indicating for each year whether there has been inflation, deflation, or hyperinflation. Year CPI Inflation Rate Change in Price Level 1921 17.9 — — 1922 16.8 1923 17.1 What rates of inflation for 1924 would be consistent with disinflation between 1923 and 1924? Check all that apply. 1.7% 11.8% 51.8% 1.8% What rates of inflation for 1924 would be consistent with hyperinflation? Check all that apply. 15.0% -1.8% 100.0% 120.0%arrow_forwardThe seasonally adjusted data below depict the performance of the economy of the United States in 1949. Year/Quarter 1949/Q1 1949/Q2 1949/Q3 1949/Q4 Select one: OA. Recession and disinflation. Annual Percent Change Nominal GDP -7.4 -5.2 +2.3 -3.3 Which of the following describes the performance of the economy of the United States in 1949? OB. Expansion and disinflation. OC. Expansion and deflation. OD. Recession and deflation. Annual Percent Change Real GDP -5.4 -1.4 +4.2 -3.3arrow_forward
- 20(1).pdt 它 ☆ 5/6 001 Math It Graph It Write It Business Cycle Question Using the actual data from the table please construct a business cycle model. Remember to include the actual adjusted GDP (2005 Dollars) as well as the GDP trend line. Number your horizontal axis, time, with 2000 as the origin at one year increments. Label your vertical in 1000s of billions, just like the table. Use a number line break on the vertical and number from $10,000 billion to $14,000 billion in 250 billion increments. GDP in Billions, Current Dollars Year GDP In Billions, 2005 Dollars 2000 9,951.5 11,216.4 2001 10,286.2 11,337.5 2002 10,642.3 11,543.1 2003 11,142.2 11,836.4 2004 11,533.3 12,246.9 2005 12,623.0 12,623.0 2006 13,377.2 12,958.5 2007 14,028.7 13,206.4 2008 14,291.5 13,161.9 2009 13,939.0 12,703.1 2010 14,526.5 13,088.0 http://www.bea.gov/national/arrow_forwardPerform these same calculations for 2018 and 2019, and enter the results in the following table. 2017 2018 2019 Price Cost Price Cost Price Cost Quantity in Basket (Dollars) (Dollars) (Dollars) (Dollars) (Dollars) (Dollars) Notebooks 10 20 1 3 Calculators 1 50 50 54 75 Large coffees 200 1 200 1 1 Energy drinks 100 200 4 Textbooks 10 100 1,000 120 150 Total cost 1,470 Price index 100 Suppose the base year for this price index is 2017. In the last row of the table, calculate and enter the value of the CSPI for the remaining years. Between 2017 and 2018, the CSPI increased by Between 2018 and 2019, the CSPI increased by % Which of the following, if true, would illustrate why price indexes such as the CSPI might overstate inflation in the cost of going to college? Check all that apply. As the price of energy drinks increased relative to the price of coffee between 2017 and 2019, students decreased their consumption of energy drinks and increased their consumption of coffee. Professors…arrow_forwardPlease see below. I need help with these. True or false.arrow_forward
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