HW6

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University of Illinois, Urbana Champaign *

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Course

522

Subject

Industrial Engineering

Date

Dec 6, 2023

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pdf

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7

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IE 522 HW06 1. The file TSLA.csv on canvas contains TSLA stock prices in a certain period. Assume that the daily log returns of TSLA are i.i.d. 1.1. (0.5 point) Compute the daily log returns of TSLA using adjusted close prices. Denote the true distribution of TSLA’s log return by F . F is unknown. You’ll use the empirical cdf ˆ F to estimate F . Plot the empirical cdf ˆ F . 1
1.2. (0.5 point) You want to estimate the true kurtosis θ of F , which is unknown. Give a point estimate of θ by computing the sample kurtosis of the n = 1257 daily log returns. 1.3. (0.5 point) A point estimate is not enough. You want to construct a confidence interval for θ . You need to learn more about the sample kurtosis T = g ( X 1 , · · · , X n ) = 1 n QQQQQQQ n i =1 ( X i ¯ X n ) 4 ( 1 n QQQQQQQ n i =1 ( X i ¯ X n ) 2 ) 2 , n = 1257 . As a function of a random sample { X 1 , · · · , X n } from F , T is random. What you computed in 1.2 is only a numeric realization of T . You want to find out the sampling distribution of T . This sampling distribution is unknown, but can be estimated using resampling. Use resampling to simulate B = 5000 values of the sample kurtosis from the empirical cdf ˆ F . Construct a histogram of the sample kurtoses (use 30 bins). 2
1.4. (0.5 point) Estimate the standard error of the sample kurtosis T . 1.5. (0.5 point) Estimate the probability that the sample kurtosis is greater than or equal to 6. 1.6. (0.5 point) Estimate the 0.025 quantile and 0.975 quantile of T . 1.7. (0.5 point) Construct the 95% approximate confidence interval for the kurtosis θ of TSLA’s daily log return. 3
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