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Northern Arizona University *

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490C

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Industrial Engineering

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Apr 3, 2024

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docx

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2

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Individual* Simulation Forecasting Assignment Why : There are three main reasons for this assignment. 1. Understand how to compute simple forecasts that you need to make effective decisions 2. Understand know how to use Excel formulas properly, and that you can organize your work in a logical and straight-forward manner that is easy for your audience to follow; and 3. Have the ability to apply your forecasts using a written format to sell your ideas to others. What : You will create and submit two files for this assignment: an Excel file and a Word file. Please DO NOT submit a PDF, a different file type or a Google file link instead of an Excel file. I want to see the formulas that are used. Points will be deducted if a non-Excel file is submitted for the Excel portion of the assignment. Watch : Please watch the video Links to an external site. on forecasting before continuing. It will help you get through the assignment and complete it accurately. Excel portion of the assignment : Please complete the following forecasts for the simulation using Excel. Specifically, I want you to use information available on the Round 0 Courier, the Industry Conditions Report, the Situation Analysis Report, and the Capstone Team Member Guide to forecast the following: 1. Forecast demand for all 5 product segments, for each of the 8 rounds. 2. Forecast the “ideal spot” locations (or “sweet spot” locations) for each product segment, for each of the 8 rounds. 3. Estimate the cost to double capacity for each of your current products. 4. Estimate the cost to raise automation for each of your current products. 5. Calculate the gross margin for each of your current products. 6. Calculate the margin potential for each of your current products. Ensure that your Excel document is attractive, professional, and easy to follow. Be sure to include all Year 0 demand levels as well as the data you use to determine the costs to double capacity, raise automation, as well as how you calculate the margins. Your readers will always want to see the data. Don’t make them hunt up the numbers. Their time is valuable – don’t waste it.
Your deliverable will consist of two documents. Please compute all of the forecasts in Excel and ensure that your Excel document is attractive and easy to follow. Please DO NOT submit a PDF, a different file type or a Google file link instead of an Excel file. I want to see the formulas that are used. Points will be deducted if a non-Excel file is submitted for the Excel portion of the assignment.. Also, I want you to draft a one-page executive memo that details what knowledge you gleaned from completing these forecasts. Some things to consider when you are drafting your memo: Are certain product segments more attractive to you than others? If so, what makes those segments more attractive? Which product segments have customer expectations that are changing more rapidly than others? Given the growth in each product segments, when should you make revisions to your product or introduce new products? Consider your teams competitive strategy (low cost, differentiation, or life-cycle – see section 12 in The Team Member Guide). Review your margin potential calculations. What must your company do to generate such a high return? What variables and factors will determine if these margins can be attained? *Please note: I want each student to work alone on this assignment; you will have plenty of time to collaborate this semester on other deliverables. It is usually clear when two students have “shared” work so please don’t even go there!
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