Final Performance and Final Report

The Decision Variables in a What If analysis provide the limitations for each variable. True False

Determine the seven steps to take in order to explore the problem using simulation.

Which of the following gambles has the largest objective risk? 20% chance of winning $100 and 80% chance of losing $100 50% chance of winning $10,000 and 50% chance of losing $10,000 50% chance of winning nothing and 50% chance of losing $100 50% chance of winning $100 and 50% chance of winning nothing

Suppose you want to mine for gold. Your decisions are to build a mine or not, and to hire a geologist or not. If you find gold, you will earn R2 million in profit; if you fail to find gold, you will lose R0.5 million. On the geologist's website, he states he predicts success 50% of the time and failure 50% of the time; when he predicts success, then you are 80% likely to actually succeed; when he predicts failure, then you are 90% likely to actually fail. The geologist costs R0.1 million. You estimate without a geologist you have a 45% chance of success. Use a decision tree to maximize your expected value.

A company is operating in two unrelated businesses. The first one is making common salt, which is sold in one kilogram consumer packs. The second business is making readymade garments. The owner of the businesses has decided to implement Materials Requirement Planning (MRP) in one of the two businesses, which is likely to give him greater benefit. Assuming that the current turnover and profits of both the units are comparable, compare the relative benefits and limitations of Materials Requirement Planning (MRP) for these two businesses.

A salesperson uses three different airlines. The probabilities of switching from one airline to another in consecutive flights are shown below. If the last flight was on Delta, what is the probability that the next was on American?   American Delta Southwest American 0.5 0.25 0.25 Delta 0.2 0.6 0.2 Southwest 0.3 0.3 0.4 A   0.5 B   0.2 C   0.25 D   0.6

Discuss how likely it is that 70% of students will pass a college  course with a B or an A. Then, consider the following questions: Would you look at data showing the success rate of previous courses? Would you check whether the current GPA of students in your class is high or low?   What other data would you like to have before you determine the probability of 70% of students passing this course with a B or an A?

How would I calculate the expected values for probabilities that aren't a single value such as 1-4% and >4%?

The company is considering whether or not they should drill the land. The cost of drilling is estimated to be $4 million. The company believes there are three possible findings after drilling the land: dry, wet and gushing. The probabilities for these outcomes are 0.5, 0.3 and 0.2, respectively. If the land is found to be dry, it obviously offers no profit. If the land is wet, it brings a potential profit of $10 million. If gushing, the potential profit from the land is $30 million. Answer the following questions, Q1 and Q2. Q1: Draw a decision tree to show the decision for this company based on the EMV criterion. Nodes and arcs are provided below and you can make more of them by using "copy" and "paste" Q2: The company has the option of using some new technology and equipment combined with seismic survey data to learn the presence of oil (dry, wet or gushing) before drilling the land. However, it requires $2.3 million investment for the technology, equipment, and required analysis. Is…