METHOD 4 : STATISTICAL ANALYS I S So far this paper has discussed the use of bands or single ‘best guess’ estimates of the impact and probability of each risk to represent its importance. However, this simplifies reality. Now, here in the following table we try to identify and quantify the main issues in Iran oil and gas project, in respect of model 2(high, medium, law risk) TEFCEL ELEMENTS Input Tools & Techniques( Quantifying the time and cost): Output Technical/Technological Scope of contract (upstream/downstream) E&P? EPC? TK? WBS? Milestones? reports Model 2 1- Statement of claim Economic Delay in payment Financial/Fiscal tax? SSO? Retentions? Delay in financial injection to project Commercial Delay in delivering the material, Long lead items. Contractual Suspension in the project due to company, liquidated damage, guarantees (performance, advanced payment,…), delay in permissions, access, certificates? Approval of reports,… Environmental Political, social, cultural, varieties of stakeholders, Legal Suspension in project due to forcemajor, impact high Suspension in project due to forcemajor, Political, social, cultural, varieties of stakeholders, Delay in payment,Delay in delivering the material, Long lead items. Delay in financial injection to project low probability low high In Iran project due to some weak especially in scheduling and estimation of cost and time, the claim are so common. Changes in circumstance
Failure to identify changes to draft deliverables within the time specified in the project timeline will result in project delays.
Under present circumstances project would be delayed by 431 days, no way to deliver on project completion date of November 18th, 2003.
The following short case will give you a good idea of how risks surface in business and project planning and what companies do about it. Consider that you are the Risk Manager as you look at this case, as it will be a good exercise for the time when you will be that Risk Manager!
For example, a repair project that would better the environment could not occur for an extended period due to a delay.
Describe common practices to estimate the duration of project activities as well as real reasons that cause project delays.
By Tom Carlos PMP In a perfect world, every project would be "on time and within budget." But reality (especially the proven statistics) tells a very different story. It 's not uncommon for projects to fail. Even if the budget and schedule are met, one must ask "did the project deliver the results and quality we expected?" True project success must be evaluated on all three components. Otherwise, a project could be considered a "failure." Have you ever seen a situation where projects begin to show signs of disorganisation, appear out of control, and have a sense of doom and failure? Have you witnessed settings where everyone works in a silo and no one seems to know what the other team member is doing? What about
My partners and I have made a list of areas that might cause the project delays or failure with their respective outcomes. We have listed the risk below that can prevent the project to finish on time.
Design Consultants miscommunication within their own departments and changing of staff members delayed timeline as project wasn’t communicated when staff were exiting employment. So these activities had to commence from the beginning.
Speaking out the problem when it arises. Adding change, delays and other claims clause into the contract before the project starts.
In project management, contract almost related with every level of project, such as material buying, price negotiation, customer service and payments. Supplier is another important role in project management. If contractor could give a appropriate contact to supplier, it will helps on build stable relationship, with supplier, even more, it could bargain with price of materials. However, if contract not finish at each single phases of project, it will increase negotiation time, which means definitely time delay and cost overruns. With decent contract management of project, it will simply to avoid such fundamental problems. Another explanation for contract error is worker. Human resource is also important for basic project proceeding, and it has been included in contract management as well. Similarly, all potential possibilities need considered by manager. “careful consideration need to be finished when forming the initial contract, for about what might occur during its operation, this will guarantee that things are included in the contract documents that enable effective contract management”(OGC 2010)
The world of foreign policy is like a multi-sided game of chess. Moves are made with varying degrees of calculation and skill, and nothing happens in a vacuum. Everything that happens affects the other players' sets of options and levels of risk. In analyzing historical events in international relations, it is incumbent upon the analyst to take into consideration the historical and regional context to what happened.
During the late 1970’s to the early 1980’s, Iran went through a great revolution. It was during this time that the Shah Mohammad Reza was forced out of power. At the beginning of Mohammad Reza’s rule, he faced very few issues. However, once the Prime minister of Iran made the decision to nationalize the oil industry of Iran the problems began. Prior to this, the Anglo-Iranian Oil Company brought in great profits to Britain. Not only did it hinder their international relations, Shah Mohammad Reza saw this as a threat to his power. Shah Reza decided that in order to ensure that he would remain in power, he must take out the prime minister. This decision was a questionable one because the public held great favor for the prime minister. Together with the CIA, Shah Mohammad Reza took
the Arab members of OPEC had the drop in production that resulted world production to drop by 7.8% between September and November of 1973. Also, an exogenous oil price shock can be explained by studying the component of oil price increase that happened as a result of the Arab production cutbacks in 1973 and 1974. The third event the Iranian revolution occurred in November 1978. Iran had oil production of 6.1 million barrels a day in September 1978, but in January 1979, it was 6.1 million barrels a day; consequently, the drop caused total world oil production to decline by 8.9%. The fourth event was Iran-Iraq War.
This boom is due to the Joint Plan of Action, an initial agreement over the Islamic country’s nuclear programme reached by Iran and the so-called P5+1, namely the United States, Russia, China, France, Germany and the United Kingdom, on November 24, 2013. Teheran agreed to take the first steps to halt, and eventually roll back, its programme in exchange for sanctions relief for some of its industries, including the automotive, which is the country’s largest sector unrelated to petrochemicals. The ensuing boom shows the potential impact on the Iranian economy of a lasting deal, which would lift the limits to the country’s export of oil and gas. The return of Iranian oil on the global markets seems to be a matter of time.
Proper following and acknowledgement of the timeline is vital to the success of this project. If the project goes overtime, it can cause serious budget mess-ups and furthermore delays.