Answered: 1. Demand forecast of products by…

Business

Operations Management

1. Demand forecast of products by market

Practical Management Science

6th Edition

ISBN:9781337406659

Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Chapter13: Regression And Forecasting Models

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 42P: The file P13_42.xlsx contains monthly data on consumer revolving credit (in millions of dollars)...

See similar textbooks

Related questions

Q: Given the Actual Demand from January to June of 2021, along with the forecasts based on three (3)…

A: Find the Given details below: Given details: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Actual 960 1230 1520…

Q: Week Passengers 440 11 446 12 451 13 455 14 464 15 996 474 17 476 18 482 a. Explain why an averaging…

A: After observing the data, we can see that there is an upward increasing trend. In case the average…

Q: When forecasting demand for new products, sometimes i rms will use demand data from similar existing…

A: Demand forecasting is the technique used by managers to forecast the expected future demand and…

Q: Following are two weekly forecasts made by two different methods for the number of gallons of…

A: Given - Week Forcast Actual Demand 1 0.95 0.72 2 1.08 1.00 3 0.95 1.07 4 1.22 0.97

Q: Following are two weekly forecasts made by two different methods for the number of gallons of…

A: A robust measure of how to spread out a set of data is the median absolute deviation (MAD). The…

Q: List the types of forecasts?

A: Forecasting refers to the techniques that are used for making the prediction based on the present…

Q: Following are two weekly forecasts made by two different methods for the number of gallons of…

A: Formula to solve this problem: - MAD=Sum of errornMSE = Sum of Squared errorn

Q: 1. Calculate a forecast of the above demand using a three-month and a five-month moving average in a…

A: Since you have posted multiple questions, as per guideline we have answered the first three…

Q: 17. Statistical and observational methods, where adequate data or settings are available in which to…

A: Forecasting: It means the prediction of the future period. The prediction will be done based on the…

Q: EXERCISE 9 - FORECASTING Question 1 The following data summarizes the historical demand for a…

A: Given- Month Actual Demand March 20 April 25 May 40 June 35 July 30 August 45

Q: a. Plot the monthly sales data. Do you observe any trend, cycles or random variations? b. Forecast…

A: Forecasting is a technique that uses recorded data as inputs to make instructed estimates that are…

Q: Following are two weekly forecasts made by two different methods for the number of gallons of…

A: The MSE measures how near a regression line is to a set of points. On the other hand, a robust…

Q: The MAD for Method 1= _____ thousand gallons (round response to three decimal places)

A: Demand is the amount of quantity of goods and services for which the people are willing to pay at…

Q: Discussion #1 & #2

A: As per the Bartleby Honor code we are not supposed to answer more than 1 question at a time. Please…

Q: Consider the following actual (A,) and forecast (F,) demand levels for a commercial multiline…

A: The forecast for period 5 can be computed as follows:

Q: a) Using a weighted moving average with three periods, determine the demand for period 13. Use 3, 2,…

A: Forecasting is the process of predicting future data based on previous or past data and information.…

Q: (a) What are the optimal values? (b) Develop a visualization comparing the forecasts with the…

A: There are many methods to find the optimal forecasted values like the moving averages method,…

Q: Bradley’s Copiers sells and repairs photocopy machines.The manager needs weekly forecasts of service…

A: Given data, Week Actual Services level 1 29 2 27 3 41 4 18 5 33 Exponential…

Q: Passenger miles flown on Northeast Airlines, a commuter firm serving the Boston hub, are shown for…

Q: What is meant by the term tracking the forecast? In which two ways can forecasts go wrong?

A: Tracking the forecast means comparing the actual demand with the forecasted demand. It is used to…

Q: Explain the trade-off between responsiveness and stability in a forecasting system that uses…

A: Forecasting is the process of making assumptions of the future on the basis of past and present data…

Q: Consider the data below which includes sales data and the forecasts that would have been made using…

A: Given data is

Q: ii. The last seven weeks of sales at KC car dealership can be seen in Table 2 below. Table 2 Week…

A: Week Sales 1 25 2 30 3 27 4 31 5 27 6 29 7 30 8

Q: 4. Simple Exponential Smoothing: Use a smoothing parameter, α = 0.3. Month Ft 1 2 3 4 5 678 9 10 No.…

A: Exponential smoothing is a forecasting model which using the actual demand and forecasting f=demand…

Q: The MAD for Method 1 = enter your response here thousand gallons (round your response to three…

A: Forecasting is a technique used to predict future outcomes on the basis of past data. In business…

Q: Following are two weekly forecasts made by twodifferent methods for the number of gallons of…

A: MAD stands for Mean Absolute Deviation: Mean absolute deviation (MAD) of a data set is that the…

Q: a. Plot the monthly data b. Forecast September sales using: i. A linear trend equation ii. A…

A: THE ANSWER IS AS BELOW:

Q: What are the pros and cons of doing that

A: Sales forecasting refers to the process of estimation of future expected sales, based upon the…

Q: Two different forecasting models were used to forecastsales of a popular soda on a college campus.…

A: Solution - Introduction - [1] Forecasting Model - Forecasting models are one of the numerous methods…

Q: The company's sales history (in thousands of units) is shown in the table below. Use exponential…

A: Concept and formulas used: FIT = Forcast Including Trend FIT = Ft + Tt Ft = FITt-1 + a…

Q: Forecasting is utilized in which of the following areas? A) product demand B. process design (c) new…

A: Efficiency is the ability to reduce or eliminate the wastage of resources, money, and time in an…

Q: What should be our forecast accuracy target if there is a high degree of volatility in customer…

A: Thank you for you question. As per our guidelines, We will be answering the first question for you…

Q: 2)Auto sales over a 4-month period were forecasted as follows: 89, 98, 105, and 97. The actual…

A: Auto sales over a 4-month period - Month Actual Forecast 1 92 89 2 96 98 3 101 105 4 100…

Q: 1. A dry cleaner uses exponential smoothing to forecast equipment usage at its main plant. August…

A: Since you have asked multiple questions, we will solve the first question with its sub-parts for…

Q: Weekly demand for an item averaged 100 units over the past year. Actual demand forthe next eight…

Q: 3. The weekly demand for units manufactured by the Orion Company Limited has been as follows: Week 1…

A: Formula:

Q: Sales Month (000 units) Feb. 19 Mar. 18 Apг. May 15 20 Jun. 18 Jul. 22 Aug. 20 a. Plot the monthly…

A: The known data is given below:

Q: QUESTIONS All Ans to 3 Decimal Places Use the Naiive method to forecast for Feb -Aug 2021 2…

A: As per our guidelines, we are supposed to answer only three sub-parts if multiples sub-parts are…

Q: The number of daily calls for the repair of Speedy copy machines has been recorded as follows: a.…

A: Formula:

Q: Gasoline sales Times Series week sales (1000s of gallons 1 17 2 21 3 19 4 23 5 18 6…

A: Find the Given details below: Given details: week sales (1000s of gallons) 1 17 2 21 3 19…

Q: Q.2.2 Compare and contrast between the grassroots forecasting technique and the Delphi method. Q.2.2…

A: The grassroots strategy asks those nearest to the end client to figure out what they will sell in…

Q: What is Use a naive method to make a forecast?

A: Naïve method of forecasting is a simple forecasting method where the sales or demand of the previous…

Q: QUESTION 9 Use the table below to answer the following questions (Choose only the letter) Periods…

A: Given data- Periods Observations 1 24 2 34 3 36 4 37 5 41 6 44 7 45

Q: Given the following sales data: week 1: 203 week 2: 185 week 3: 164 week 4: 151 week 5: 115 Forecast…

A: Given Sales Data - Week 1 203 Week 2 185 Week 3 164 Week 4 151 Week 5 115

Q: If actual recent demand was 41.5, using the focus forecasting approach, the forecast technique to…

A: THE ANSWER IS AS BELOW:

Q: Bradley's Copiers sells and repairs photocopy machines. The manager needs weekly forecasts of…

A: Given data-

Q: irlines company approaches you to suggest ossible methods for an effective Forecast and 's…

A: Forecasting refers to making predictions regarding the future variables. It is widely used in…

Concept explainers

Forecasting in Business

Forecasting is the process of predicting the future based on the past and the present data and circumstances. In other words, forecasting is the act of making a detailed analysis of future events based on the decisions made in the past as well as the present. Forecasting plays a very important role in operational management as it helps in planning and decision-making. It is not only important for the success of a business but also contributes to individual growth and success. Many business organizations or companies have failed due to the shortcomings of their forecasting.

Question

1. Demand forecast of products by market (demand forecast could be for four seasons/periods) 2. Facility opening costs by region and transportation costs between each pair of sites. 3. Inventory costs by site and as a function of quantity 4. Sales price of product in different regions excel sheet examples

Leveraging special tenchniques in analyzing historical data to predict future trends. Forecasting covers the methods and types of forecasting and their application to case studies.

Expert Solution

This question has been solved!

Explore an expertly crafted, step-by-step solution for a thorough understanding of key concepts.

SEE SOLUTION Check out a sample Q&A here

Step 1

VIEW

Step 2

VIEW

Step by step

Solved in 2 steps

SEE SOLUTION Check out a sample Q&A here

Knowledge Booster

Learn more about

Need a deep-dive on the concept behind this application? Look no further. Learn more about this topic, operations-management and related others by exploring similar questions and additional content below.

Similar questions

The file P13_42.xlsx contains monthly data on consumer revolving credit (in millions of dollars) through credit unions. a. Use these data to forecast consumer revolving credit through credit unions for the next 12 months. Do it in two ways. First, fit an exponential trend to the series. Second, use Holts method with optimized smoothing constants. b. Which of these two methods appears to provide the best forecasts? Answer by comparing their MAPE values.
The Baker Company wants to develop a budget to predict how overhead costs vary with activity levels. Management is trying to decide whether direct labor hours (DLH) or units produced is the better measure of activity for the firm. Monthly data for the preceding 24 months appear in the file P13_40.xlsx. Use regression analysis to determine which measure, DLH or Units (or both), should be used for the budget. How would the regression equation be used to obtain the budget for the firms overhead costs?
The file P13_22.xlsx contains total monthly U.S. retail sales data. While holding out the final six months of observations for validation purposes, use the method of moving averages with a carefully chosen span to forecast U.S. retail sales in the next year. Comment on the performance of your model. What makes this time series more challenging to forecast?
Under what conditions might a firm use multiple forecasting methods?
4 .Substitute for Problem # 4 on in attachment)-Calculate the MAD,revised MAD and the Revised Forecast for months 1-6 for the following three groups,where the Forecast stands for Forecast Demand.Has your forecast improved ? Tell me how would you go about improving the revised forecast( for each of the three groups)without actually doing so? Estate Planning Group Auditing and Accounting Group Business Consulting Group Month Actual Demand Forecast Actual Demand Forecast Actual Demand Forecast 1 100 125 270 230 140 135 2 90 125 240 230 130 135 3 110 125 280 230 160 135 4 115 125 260 230 180 135 5 130 125 300 230 200 135 6 115 125 220 230 190 135
1. Using MAD as the criterion, which of the following models would you use for thegiven time series data? Why?A. Naïve approach;B. 5-month SMA model;C. WMA model with weights 0.1, 0.3, and 0.6; orD. ES model with α = 0.5 and a forecast of 3,500 liters in the first month.NOTE: In answering Item 1, mention the whole description of the model; i.e., not just“SMA model”, but “SMA model with n = ...”; not just “WMA model”, but “WMA modelwith weights ...”; not just “ES model”, but “ES model with α = ...”.
1. Omar has heard from some of his customers that they will probably cut back on order sizes in thenext quarter. The company he works for has been reducing its sales force due to falling demand andhe worries that he could be next if his sales begin to fall off. Believing that he may be able to convince his customers not to cut back on orders, he turns in an optimistic forecast of his next quartersales to his manager. What are the pros and cons of doing that?
Following are two weekly forecasts made by two different methods for the number of gallons of gasoline, in thousands, demanded at a local gasoline station. Also shown are actual demand levels, in thousands of gallons: Week Forecast Method 1 Actual Demand 1 0.90 0.70 2 1.05 1.00 3 0.95 1.00 4 1.20 1.00 Week Forecast Method 2 Actual Demand 1 0.80 0.70 2 1.20 1.00 3 0.90 1.00 4 1.11 1.00 The MAD for Method 1 = 0.1250.125 thousand gallons (round your response to three decimal places). The mean squared error (MSE) for Method 1 = nothing thousand gallons2 (round your response to three decimal places).
Bradley's Copiers sells and repairs photocopy machines. The manager needs weekly forecasts of service calls so that he can schedule service personnel. Use the actual demand in the first period for the forecast for the first week so error measurement begins in the second week. The manager uses exponential smoothing with alpha = 0.5 Forecast the number of calls for week 6, which is next week. Week Actual service calls 1 28 2 36 3 38 4 25 5 25 The forecast for week 6 is ___ service calls (round to two decimals and show your work)
Following are two weekly forecasts made by two different methods for the number of gallons of gasoline, in thousands, demanded at a local gasoline station. Also shown are actual demand levels, in thousands of gallons:    Week Forecast Method 1 Actual Demand 1 0.90 0.70 2 1.05 1.00 3 0.95 1.00 4 1.20 1.00    Week Forecast Method 2 Actual Demand 1 0.80 0.70 2 1.20 1.00 3 0.90 1.00 4 1.11 1.00 The MAD for Method 1 = nothing thousand gallons (round your response to three decimal places).
Following are two weekly forecasts made by two different methods for the number of gallons of gasoline, in thousands, demanded at a local gasoline station. Also shown are actual demand levels, in thousands of gallons. FORECAST Week Method 1    Method 2 Actual Demand 1 0.90 .80 .70 2 1.05 1.20 1.00 3 0.95 .90 1.00 4 1.20 1.11 1.00 What are the MAD and MSE for each method?
4-Forecasting using Exponential Smoothing The first five periods of demand data are shown in the following table .Let the smoothing coefficient, alpha, equal 0.2.Compute the exponentially smoothed forecasts for periods one through four .Initialize the procedure with a forecast value for   period one of 37. Period    Aggregate Demand    Forecast demand 0                      -                                  - 1                     38                              37 2                     42 3                     40 4                     36 5                     42 Determine the Running Sum of Forecast Errors (RSFE), the Mean Absolute Deviation, MADt-1,and the Tracking Signal(TS) at the end of each period. Let the initial MADt-1   for period 0 be equal to 2.