A decision maker has prepared the following payoff table. Alternative Buy Rent Lease Best decision Payoff Using the Maximin criterion, what is the best decision and the expected payoff? Buy States of Nature High 95 90 55 OF Low -5 45 50 Lease Rent Buy
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tHE ANSWER I GOT WAS ( BUY & 95) WHICH WAS INCORRECT
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- Dwayne Whitten, president of Whitten Industries, is considering whether to build a manufacturing plant in north Texas. His decision is summarized in the following table: Alternatives Favorable Market Unfavorable Market Build large plant $400,000 −$300,000 Build small plant $120,000 −$15,000 Don't Build $0 $0 Market Probability 0.40 0.60 a) The correct decision tree for Dwayne is shown in Figure ____ (all payoffs are in thousands). b) To maximize the return, Dwayne's decision should be to ______ . c) For Dwayne, the expected value of perfect information (EVPI) = $___________ (enter your answer as a whole numA payoff table is given as: S1 S2 S3 D1 250 750 500 D2 300 -250 1200 D3 500 500 600 (a) What choice should be made by the optimistic decision maker? (b) What choice should be made by the conservative decision maker? (c) What decision should be made under minimal regret? (d) If the probabilities of d1, d2, and d3 are .2, .5, and .3, respectively, then what choice should be made under expected value?The following payoff table provides profits based on various possible decision alternatives adn various levels of demand at Robert Klassan's print shop: decision low high alt 1 $10,000 $36,000 alt 2 $6,000 $38,000 alt 3 -$2500 $52,000 The probability of low demand is 0.40 whereas the probability of high demand is 0.60. a) The alternative that provides Robert the greatest expected monetary value is _________ The EMV for this decision is $_______ b) The expected value with perfect information (EVwPI)= $______ c) The expected value of perfect information (EVPI) for Robert= $________
- Consider the following payoff table for three product decisions (A, B, and C) and three future market conditions (payoffs = P millions) Assume that is now possible for the company to estimate a probability of 0.40 that market condition1 will exist, 0.40 for market condition 2 and a probability of 0.20 that market condition 3 will exist in the future. Determine the best decision using expected value. Determine the expected value of perfect information (EVPI)?Determine the best decision using expected opportunity loss.Adam has been offered to open up a Service station. However, the size of the establishment will be based on his decision. The annual return and investment required will be based on both size and market condition. To help out in the decision making, Adam has done the analysis and the expected profit/loss are shown in the table: Develop a decision table for this? What is the maximax decision? What is the equally likely decision? Develop a decision tree. Assume each outcome is equally likely, then find the highest expected monetory value (EMV).Robert Ragsdale is trying to decide if he should purchase repair and replacement insurance on a new laptop computer that he is planning to purchase. The policy costs $400.00 at the time of purchase, and over the next three years will replace the laptop if it is stolen or repair it if it is broken. The following table contains the total costs of this decision. Which alternative is best, according to each of the following decision criteria? Maximin Maximax Laplace Minimax regret
- DECISION THEORY. A man has to decide wheter to resign or not from his present position and apply for a job offering him 2x his present salary, that is if he passes the qualifying test. At present, he receives $3000 monthly compensation. The offer from another company has a condition that he will not be allowed to take the qualifying test, he will immediately be taken in and have a monthly pay of $6000. If he fails, he will remain jobless, he feels that his chance of passing the test is 35%. Suppose he decides to base his decision on expected value, should he resign from his post or not?The following payoff table provides profits based on various possible decision alternatives and various levels of demand. ALTERNATIVE DEMAND LOW MEDIUM HIGH Alternative 1 40 80 150 Alternative 2 80 120 130 Alternative 3 100 100 100 a. Which alternative should be chosen using the equally likely decision criterion? b. Set-up the opportunity loss table. c. Which alternative should be chosen using the minimax regret criterion?Today’s Electronics specializes in manufacturing modern electronic components. It also builds the equipment that produces the components. Phyllis Weinberger, who is responsible for advising the president of Today’s Electronics on electronic manufacturing equipment, has developed the following table concerning a proposed facility: Payoffs Outcomes Large facility 550,000 -310,000 Medium-sized facility 300,000 -100,000 Small facility 200,000 -32,000 No facility 0 0 Develop an opportunity loss table. What is the minimax regret decision? Note:- Do not provide handwritten solution. Maintain accuracy and quality in your answer. Take care of plagiarism. Answer completely. You will get up vote for sure.
- A small building contractor has recently experienced two successive years in which work opportunities exceeded the firm’s capacity. The contractor must now make a decision on capacity for next year. Estimated profits under each of the two possible states of nature are as shown in the tablebelow. Which alternative should be selected if the decision criterion is:a. Maximax?b. Maximin?c. Laplace?d. Minimax regret?NEXT YEAR’SDEMANDAlternative Low HighDo nothing $50* $60Expand 20 80Subcontract 40 70Determine the course of action that has the highest expected payoff for this decision treeThe owner of Pearl Automotive Dealers is trying to decide whether to expand his current facility. If he expands and customer demand turns weak, there is a chance he could lease part of his newly constructed facility to another dealer.If he doesn’t expand and strong demand occurs, he could attempt to lease another facility across town. Analyze the decision tree in Figure A8. What is the best set of decisions and the expected payoff?
