AProjectACTIVITY2-32-43-54-54-6SLo6hus77-87-98-109-10ⒸfindConstructfind thethe following Chorracteristics:OPTIMISTICthe1133462513thePESSIMISTICnetwork554+766837MOST LIKELY34435465Critical path and Variance for each Eventat 95% probabilitydurationProject

A network diagram is a visual representation which helps to calculate the project duration and…

Answered: A Project ACTIVITY 2-3 has 3-5 4-5 4-6…

Practical Management Science

6th Edition

ISBN:9781337406659

Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Chapter10: Introduction To Simulation Modeling

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 55P

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Similar questions

Suppose that you want to invest $10,000 in the stock market by buying shares in one of two companies: A and B. Shares in company A though risky, could yield a 50% return on investment during the next year. If the stock market if conditions are not favorable (bear market) the stock may lose 20% of it value. Company B provides safe investments with 15% return in a bull market and only 5% in a bear market Ali the applications you have consulted are predicting a 60% chance for a bull market and 40% for a bear market. Where you invest your money? Construct a decision tree.
Let Xi be the price (in dollars) of stock i one year fromnow. X1 is N(15, 100) and X2 is N(20, 2025). Today I buythree shares of stock 1 for $12/share and two shares of stock2 for $17/share. Assume that X1 and X2 are independentrandom variables.a Find the mean and variance of the value of my stocksone year from now.b What is the probability that one year from now I willhave earned at least a 30% return on my investment?c If X1 and X2 were not independent, why would it bedifficult to answer parts (a) and (b)?
Your company needs to make an important decision thatinvolves large monetary consequences. You have listedall of the possible outcomes and the monetary payoffsand costs from all outcomes and all potential decisions.You want to use the EMV criterion, but you realize thatthis requires probabilities and you see no way to findthe required probabilities. What can you do?
Pete is considering placing a bet on the NCAA playoffgame between Indiana and Purdue. Without any furtherinformation, he believes that each team has an equal chanceto win. If he wins the bet, he will win $10,000; if he loses,he will lose $11,000. Before betting, he may pay Bobby$1,000 for his inside prediction on the game; 60% of thetime, Bobby will predict that Indiana will win and 40% ofthe time, Bobby will predict that Purdue will win. WhenBobby says that IU will win, IU has a 70% chance ofwinning, and when Bobby says that Purdue will win, IU hasonly a 20% chance of winning. Determine how Pete canmaximize his total expected profit. What is EVSI? What isEVPI?
Use the table below to answer the questions that follow and caculate the Expected Monetary Value(EMV) of the different outcomesDECISION TABLE WITH CONDITIONAL VALUESSTATE OF NATUREFAVORABLE OUTCOME UNFAVORABLE OUTCOMEALTERNATIVES ($) ($)Start a big Company 2,000,000 -500,000Start a small company 800,000 -200,000Build Nothing 0 0Probabilities 0.3 0.7Calculate the following The EMV Maximin criterion Maximax criterion Minimax criterion
Please show the steps by using the formula for each Salalah Methanol company management is considering three competing investment Projects Option1: Starting a unit in Sohar, Option 2: Starting a unit in Musandam and Option 3: Starting a unit in Muscat. The initialinvestment for all the projects are 11000 and the cost of capital is 4.05% Year Sohar Musandam Muscat 1 1100 2160 3225 2 3100 3260 4250 3 3800 4360 5475 4 4600 5460 6300 5 5100 6900 7000 Use the information below and help the management in choosing the most desirable Project using a. Payback period b. Discounted payback c. Net Present value d. Profitability Index. You have to suggest to the management which project to choose and why
2. Using the following table, perform ALL FIVE of the techniques for Decision Making under Uncertainty: Maximax, Maximin, Hurwicz Realism (α = 0.7), LaPlace and Minimax Regret. You must show your work for obtaining the points. PROFIT ($) STRONG MARKET FAIR MARKET POOR MARKET Large facility 550,000 110,000 -310,000 Medium-sized facility 300,00 129,000 -100,000 Small facility 200,000 100,000 -32,000 No facility 0 0 0
Based on Babich (1992). Suppose that each week each of 300 families buys a gallon of orange juice from company A, B, or C. Let pA denote the probability that a gallon produced by company A is of unsatisfactory quality, and define pB and pC similarly for companies B and C. If the last gallon of juice purchased by a family is satisfactory, the next week they will purchase a gallon of juice from the same company. If the last gallon of juice purchased by a family is not satisfactory, the family will purchase a gallon from a competitor. Consider a week in which A families have purchased juice A, B families have purchased juice B, and C families have purchased juice C. Assume that families that switch brands during a period are allocated to the remaining brands in a manner that is proportional to the current market shares of the other brands. For example, if a customer switches from brand A, there is probability B/(B + C) that he will switch to brand B and probability C/(B + C) that he will switch to brand C. Suppose that the market is currently divided equally: 10,000 families for each of the three brands. a. After a year, what will the market share for each firm be? Assume pA = 0.10, pB = 0.15, and pC = 0.20. (Hint: You will need to use the RISKBINOMLAL function to see how many people switch from A and then use the RISKBENOMIAL function again to see how many switch from A to B and from A to C. However, if your model requires more RISKBINOMIAL functions than the number allowed in the academic version of @RISK, remember that you can instead use the BENOM.INV (or the old CRITBENOM) function to generate binomially distributed random numbers. This takes the form =BINOM.INV (ntrials, psuccess, RAND()).) b. Suppose a 1% increase in market share is worth 10,000 per week to company A. Company A believes that for a cost of 1 million per year it can cut the percentage of unsatisfactory juice cartons in half. Is this worthwhile? (Use the same values of pA, pB, and pC as in part a.)
Suppose you currently have a portfolio of three stocks, A, B, and C. You own 500 shares of A, 300 of B, and 1000 of C. The current share prices are 42.76, 81.33, and, 58.22, respectively. You plan to hold this portfolio for at least a year. During the coming year, economists have predicted that the national economy will be awful, stable, or great with probabilities 0.2, 0.5, and 0.3. Given the state of the economy, the returns (one-year percentage changes) of the three stocks are independent and normally distributed. However, the means and standard deviations of these returns depend on the state of the economy, as indicated in the file P11_23.xlsx. a. Use @RISK to simulate the value of the portfolio and the portfolio return in the next year. How likely is it that you will have a negative return? How likely is it that you will have a return of at least 25%? b. Suppose you had a crystal ball where you could predict the state of the economy with certainty. The stock returns would still be uncertain, but you would know whether your means and standard deviations come from row 6, 7, or 8 of the P11_23.xlsx file. If you learn, with certainty, that the economy is going to be great in the next year, run the appropriate simulation to answer the same questions as in part a. Repeat this if you learn that the economy is going to be awful. How do these results compare with those in part a?
Stocks with high market betas have higher expected returns than stocks with low market betas. This evidence is inconsistent withI. The weak form efficient market hypothesisII. The semi-strong form efficient market hypothesisIII. The strong form efficient market hypothesis a) I, II, and III b) I and II c) I d) None of I, II, and III
On Monday, a certain stock closed at $10 per share. Before the stock market opens on Tuesday, you expect the stock to close at $9, $10, or $11 per share, with respective probabilities 0.3, 0.3, and 0.4. Looking ahead to Wednesday, you expect the stock to close 10 percent lower, unchanged, or 10 percent higher than Tuesday’s close, with the following probabilities. Tuesday's Close 10 Percent Lower Unchanged 10 Percent Higher $9 0.4 0.3 0.3 10 0.2 0.2 0.6 11 0.1 0.2 0.7 Early on Tuesday, you are directed to buy 100 shares of the stock before Thursday. All purchases are made at the end of the day, at the known closing price for that day, so your only options are to buy at the end of Tuesday or at the end of Wednesday. You wish to determine the optimal strategy for whether to buy on Tuesday or defer the purchase until Wednesday, given the Tuesday closing price, to minimize the expected purchase price. Develop and evaluate a decision tree. a-1. Determine the optimal…
A large corporation collected data on the reasons both middle managers and senior managers leave the company. Some managers eventually retire, but others leave the company prior to retirement for personal reasons including more attractive positions with other firms. Assume that the following matrix of one-year transition probabilities applies with the four states of the Markov process being retirement, leaves prior to retirement for personal reasons, stays as a middle manager, stays as a senior manager. Retirement leaves-personal middle manager senior manager retirement 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 leaves-personal 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 middle manager 0.03 0.07 0.80 0.10 senior manager 0.08 0.01 0.03 0.88 a.What states are considered absorbing states? Why? b.Compute the matrix NR: c. What percentage of the current middle managers will eventually retire from the company?

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