In real life it is possible that people are risk-averse in some situations, and risk-loving in some other situations. The payoffs and probabilities were chosen so that each event had the same expecled value. creasing order of the risk involved the four events were True False
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- The data from 200 machined parts are summarizedas follows:y yesdepth of boreE, noabovebelowedge conditioncoarsetarget15target10moderatesmooth25205080(a) What is the probability that a part selected has a moderateedge condition and a below-target bore depth?(b) What is the probability that a part selected has a moderateedge condition or a below-target bore depth?(c) What is the probability that a part selected does not have amoderate edge condition or does not have a below-targetbore depth?(d) Construct a Venn diagram representation of the events inthis sample space.Probability Possible Rate of Return 0.25 -0.10 0.15 0.00 0.35 0.10 0.25 0.25 a. Under what conditions can the standard deviation be used to measure the relative risk of two investments? b. Under what conditions must the coefficient of variation (CoVar) be used to measure the relative risk of two investments?Question 2An investor is to purchase one of three types of real estate, as illustrated inFigure below. The investor must decide among an apartment building, anoffice building, and a warehouse. The future states of nature that willdetermine how much profit the investor will make are good economicconditions and poor economic conditions. The profits that will result fromeach decision in the event of each state of nature are shown in Table below: Assume that it is now possible to estimate a probability of 0.60 that goodeconomic conditions will exist and a probability of .40 that poor economicconditions will exist. a) Determine the best decision by using expected opportunity loss. b) Develop a decision tree, with expected values at the probability nodes. c) Compute the expected value of perfect information.
- a. If the decision maker knows nothing about the probabilities of the fourstates of nature, what is the recommended decision using:i. the optimistic approachii. the conservative approachiii. the minimax regret approachiv. the Laplace methodSuppose that there are two types of workers: high and low. Employers cannot distinguish between different types during an interview. Employers value high type at $200,000 and low type at $100,000. Employers are in a competitive market (i.e. zero profit applies). High type workers have a reservation wage of 140,000 and low type workers have a reservation wage of 80,000. Suppose that 50% of all workers are high type. The productivities, reservation wages, and the probabilities are common knowledge). What wage would the employers offer? Please explain the solution!12. Weighted average of probabilities is classified as A. average rate of return B. expected rate of return C. past rate of return D. weighted rate of return
- . If you examine the decision tree in Figure 9.12 (orany other decision trees from PrecisionTree), you willsee two numbers (in blue font) to the right of each endnode. The bottom number is the combined monetaryvalue from following the corresponding path throughthe tree. The top number is the probability that thispath will be followed, given that the best strategy isused. With this in mind, explain (1) how the positiveprobabilities following the end nodes are calculated,(2) why some of the probabilities following the endnodes are 0, and (3) why the sum of the probabilitiesfollowing the end nodes is necessarily 1.The project manager of Good Public Relations gatheredthe data shown in Table 7.15 for a new advertisingcampaign.a. How long is the project likely to take? b. What is the probability that the project will take more than38 weeks?c. Consider the path A–E–G–H–J. What is the probability thatthis path will exceed 38 weeks?Question10: He game matrix table arranged in terms of player A is given. by solving the game with the graphic method; 2-)Find the probability of playing B's 1st strategy. 2-)Find the probability of playing B's 2nd strategy. 3-) find the expected game value.
- They need to be probabilities and there should be six answer 1-a-b etcusing 'standard Normal Table ' , calculate the following probabilities. 1. Pr(z < -1.12) 2. Pr(z >2.32) 3.pr(1.22 < z >2.53) 4.pr(-3.22 < z < 0.22) 5.pr(-2.36 < z < -0.50)2.4 The opening 2018 World Cup odds against being the winning team specified by espn.com were 9/2 for Germany, 5/1 for Brazil, 11/2 for France, 20/1 for England, and 7/1 for Spain. Find the corresponding prior probabilities of winning for these five teams.