In the table below x denotes the X-Tract Company’s projected annual profit (in $1,000). The table also shows the probability of earning that profit. The negative value indicates a loss. x f(x) x = profit -100 0.01 f(x) = probability -200 0.04 0 100 0.26 200 0.54 300 0.05 400 0.02 8 What is the expected value of profit? a $136 b $142 c $148 d $154

In the table below x denotes the X-Tract Company’s projected annual profit (in $1,000). The table also shows the probability of earning that profit. The negative value indicates a loss. x f(x) x = profit -100 0.01 f(x) = probability -200 0.04 0 100 0.26 200 0.54 300 0.05 400 0.02 8 What is the expected value of profit? a $136 b $142 c $148 d $154

Managerial Economics: A Problem Solving Approach

5th Edition

ISBN:9781337106665

Author:Luke M. Froeb, Brian T. McCann, Michael R. Ward, Mike Shor

Publisher:Luke M. Froeb, Brian T. McCann, Michael R. Ward, Mike Shor

Chapter17: Making Decisions With Uncertainty

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 8MC

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You are currently a worker earning $60,000 per year but are considering becoming an entrepreneur. You will not switch unless you earn an accounting profit that is on average at least as great as your current Salary. You look into opening a small grocery store. Suppose that the store has annual cost of $150,000 for labor, $60,000 for rent and $30,000 for equipment. There is one-half probability that revenues will be $20,000 and a half probability that revenue will be $420,000 a. In the low revenue Situation, what will your accounting profit or loss be? b. In the high revenue situation, what will your accounting profit or loss be? c. On average, how much do you expect your revenue to be?
4.7 Hudson Corporation is considering three options for managing its data processing operation: continuing with its own staff, hiring an outside vendor to do the managing (referred to as outsourcing), or using a combination of its own staff and an outside vendor. The cost of the operation depends on future demand. The annual cost of each option (in thousands of dollars) depends on demand as follows: Demand Staffing Options High Medium Low Own staff 650 650 600 Outside vendor 900 600 300 Combination 800 650 500 If the demand probabilities are 0.2, 0.5, and 0.3, and the table below shows the total cost of the different options, construct a risk profile for the optimal decision in the table. Option Total Cost Own Staff 635 Outside Vendor 570 Combination 635
A wheel of fortune in a gambling casino has 54 different slots in which the wheel pointer can stop. Four of the 54 slots contain the number 9. For a 1 dollar bet on hitting a 9, if he or she succeeds, the gambler wins 10 dollars plus the return of the 1 dollar bet. What is the expected value of this gambling game? What is the meaning of the expected value result?
A major proposed industry in the future is the provision of global satellite wifi. However, the actual willingness to pay for such a service is unknown. Assume there's a 40% chance that there are 1 billion people willing to pay $100/year for a service that would cost $60/year to provide and a 60% chance that those people would be willing to pay $10/year for a service that would cost $60/year to provide. Assume that the enterprise involved with this risky industry has an interest rate or discount rate of 20%.a. What is the expected value, annually, of providing this service?b. Assume that you could spend $75 billion to launch a testbed of the program, that could then either be scrapped if the willingness to pay were $10 or continue at normal cost afterward (for simplicity, assume that the program will last forever and generate constant annual returns if it is continued) if the willingness to pay were $100. What is the net expected value of this testbed?
You are currently a worker earning $60,000 per year but are considering becoming an entrepreneur. You will not switch unless you earn an accounting profit that is on average at least as great as your current Salary. You look into opening a small grocery store. Suppose that the store has annual cost of $150,000 for labor, $60,000 for rent and $30,000 for equipment. There is one-half probability that revenues will be $20,000 and a half probability that revenue will be $420,000 a. WHat is your accounting and economic profit? b. Will you quit your job and try your hand at being an entrepreneur? c. Suppose the government imposes a 25 percent tax on accounting profits: this tax is only levied if a firm is earning positive accounting profits. What will your after tax accounting profit be in the low revenue case?
Y = 30 - 25X + error What is the expected value of Y when X is 0? Y = 10 + 13.57*X + error By how much does the expected value of Y change if X increases by 18.02 units? (Round your answer to two decimal places: ex: 123.45)
Consider a lottery with three possible outcomes: $120 with probability 0.3, $80 with probability 0.2 and $50 with probability 0.5. What is the expected value of the lottery? What is its variance? (Please submit answers as integers, for example, 189 or 32) the expected value of the lottery is ———— the variance is ————
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A plaintiff believes that there is a 30% chance that he will winIf he wins, he will gain $50,000. It costs him $5000 in non‐recoverable litigation costs to take the case to court. If the plaintiff is risk‐neutral, which of the following is true? A) The plaintiff will take the case to court with an expected net‐gain of $10,000 B) The plaintiff will take the case to court with an expected net‐gain of $15,000 C) The plaintiff will not take the case to court because he is afraid of losing. D) None of the above
Exercise 3: Risky Investment Charlie has von Neumann-Morgenstern utility function u(x) = ln x and has wealth W = 250, 000. She is offered the opportunity to purchase a risky project for price P = 160, 000. 1 1 With probability p = 2 the project will be a success and return V > 160, 000. With probability 1 −p = 2 the project will fail and be worthless (i.e. it returns 0). For simplicity assume there is no interest between the time of the investment and the time of its return, that is r = 0 . How large must V be in order for Charlie to want to purchase the risky project? [Hint: What is Charlie’s expected utility is she does not purchase the project? What is Charlie’s expected utility is she purchases the project?]
4.25 The Gorman Manufacturing Company must decide whether to manufacture a component part at its Milan, Michigan, plant or purchase the component part from a supplier. The resulting profit is dependent upon the demand for the product. The following payoff table shows the projected profit (in thousands of dollars): State of Nature Low Demand Medium Demand High Demand Decision Alternative s1 s2 s3 Manufacture, d1 -20 40 100 Purchase, d2 10 45 70 The state-of-nature probabilities are P(s1) = 0.35, P(s2) = 0.35, and P(s3) = 0.30. Use a decision tree to recommend a decision.Recommended decision: Use EVPI to determine whether Gorman should attempt to obtain a better estimate of demand.EVPI: $
Prospect X = ($4, 0.04 ; $15, 0.05 ; $24, 0.01 ; $38, p) What is the expected value of prospect X? (Hint 1: To answer this question, you'll need to first determine the value of "p"). (Hint 2: To determine "p", remember that probabilities sum to 1). (Note: The answer may not be a whole number; please round to the nearest hundredth) (Note: The numbers may change between questions, so read carefully)