The demand for a product of a company in each of the last twelve months is shown in the table below; Jan Feb Oct Nov Apr May Jun 50 Month Mar Jul Aug Sep Dec Jan Demand 37 40 41 37 45 43 47 56 52 55 54 Use the table to compute the following forecast demand for the company; a. Four months simple moving average b. Four months weighted moving average using the weight of 40%, 30% and 20% and 10%respectively.
Q: Ed Rogers owns an appliance store. Sales data on a particular model of a DVD player for the past six…
A: Absolute Error = | Actual sales - Forecast | MAD = Average of Absolute Error
Q: If your forecast for 2022 is 40, using the seasonal index below, what is your forecast for 2nd…
A: Seasonal forecast = Forecast for a period * Seasonal index of that period Given, Total forecast = 40…
Q: Month 1 2 3 7 8 9 10 11 12 Flat-Screen Sales 30 32 30 39 33 34 34 38 36 39 30 36 a) Determine the…
A: Find the given details below: Given Details: Month Flat Screen Sales 1 30 2 32 3 30 4…
Q: three-period moving average. A weighted average using weights of .50 (most recent), .20 and .30.…
A: forecasting is a method which helps to predict the unknown future based on the known past…
Q: (4) Weekly demand for dry pasta at a supermarket chain is as follows Week Demands 1 517 2 510…
A:
Q: Based on the above data calculate the demand for May using a five-month moving average Calculate the…
A: Forecasting is the process of predicting future demand based on previous demand and information.
Q: Data collected on the yearly demand for 50-pound bags of fertilizer at Wallace Garden Supply are…
A:
Q: Given the following demand data,a. Compute a weighted average forecast using a weight of .40 for the…
A: 4-period weighted average forecast: Formula: Answer:
Q: a. Compute a three-week moving average forecast for the arrival of medical clinic patients in week…
A: It is a method which calculates the overall demand of past & present in data set. It is useful…
Q: The following table contains the demand from the last 10 months:…
A:
Q: (a) Compute a weighted average forecast for the data listed below using a weight of 0.40 for the…
A:
Q: Sales of tablet computers at Ted Glickman's electronics store in Washington, D.C., over the past 10…
A: Error = Actual Demand - Forecast Absolute Error = Positive value of Error MAD = Average of…
Q: The demand data for Double T Computer Services appears below. The company wants you to forecast the…
A: THE ANSWER IS AS BELOW:
Q: The following table shows the actual demand observed over the last 11 years: Year 1 2 3 4 6. 7 8 10…
A:
Q: After using your forecasting model for six months, you decide to test it using MAD and a tracking…
A: Here we use formulae: Formulas: Tracking Signal (TS) is presented by:TS = RSFEMAD RSFE = Running…
Q: The MAD for Method 1= _____ thousand gallons (round response to three decimal places)
A: Demand is the amount of quantity of goods and services for which the people are willing to pay at…
Q: Pumpkin Pies Galore is trying to forecast sales of pies forthe month of December. Demand for pies in…
A: Given data Now, calculating Edith's forecast demand for the December Average for December =
Q: 2. Develop an aggregate plan for the following forecast eriod 2 3 5 6 1 4 8 Total recast 1,200 1,200…
A: Consideration: Negative inventory in opening and ending inventory represent Backlogs.
Q: The following table contains the demand from the last 10 months. Calculate the exponential smoothing…
A: Given: An initial trend forecast (T1) = 1.00 An initial exponentially smoothed forecast (F1) = 30.…
Q: a) Using a weighted moving average with three periods, determine the demand for period 13. Use 3, 2,…
A: Forecasting is the process of predicting future data based on previous or past data and information.…
Q: Khyber Teaching Hospital is considering the purchase of a new ambulance. The decision will rest…
A: Given that: Year Mileage 1 4000 2 5000 3 4400 4 4800 5 4700
Q: The following tabulations are actual sales of units for six months and a starting forecast in…
A:
Q: The following table shows the actual demand observed over the last 11 years: Year Demand 1 2 7 10 3…
A: Forecast for Year 4 = (Sum of Demand of Year 3,Year 2, Year 1) / 3 Year 4 5 6 7 8…
Q: Demand and forecast for 5 months are given below: Month Demand Forecast 1 50 46 2 52 52 3…
A: Tracking Signal is used to determine the larger deviation (in both plus and minus) of Error in…
Q: The number of cans of soft drinks sold in a machine each week is recorded below. Develop forecasts…
A: Given data: Period 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Actual value 155 145 155 162 180 165 172 149 170 172
Q: Below is a table containing data on product demand for the most recent five months along with the…
A: Given Information:
Q: A large Portland manufacturing would like to forecast the monthly demand for a piece of…
A: Given that: Month Actual Demand 1 14 2 17 3 20 4 21 5 25
Q: Sales of tablet computers at Ted Glickman's electronics store in Washington, D.C., over the past…
A: A) Formulae used : Forecast = (1 - smoothing factor) * Most recent period forecast) + (Smoothing…
Q: Two different forecasting techniques (F1 and F2) were used to forecast demand for cases of bottled…
A: Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) is one of the measures used to summarize historical errors in…
Q: Given is a historical time series for job services demand in the prior 6 months. Month Demand 1…
A: The weighted average is a forecasting method in which higher weight is given to the most recent data…
Q: Professor Z needs to allocate time among several tasks next week to include time for students'…
A:
Q: Below is a table containing data on product demand for the most recent five months along with the…
A: Forecasting is very important to determine the demand in the coming future and how a company can…
Q: Dave's Bar-B-Q operated a moble kitchen that serviced construction sites, office buildings, and…
A: From the given data, Let F3 = forecast value for third week of june Y2= 6 F2=4.7…
Q: (a) Suppose the data in the table below represents total revenues (in $ millions) for one real…
A: Below is the solution:-
Q: Weekly demand for dry pasta at a supermarket chain is as follows. Week Demands 1 517 2 510 3 557 4…
A: Forecast for 11 weeks with 5 weighted moving average method. Average of recent 5 data (demand) = D10…
Q: DEMAND FOR FERTILIZER YEAR (1,000S OF BAGS) 1 4 2 6 3 4 4 5 5 10 6…
A: Since we only answer up to 3 sub-parts, we’ll answer the first 3. Please resubmit the question and…
Q: Period Demand 1 40 2 40 3…
A: Assessing strategy in which the last time frame's actuals are utilized as this present period's…
Q: The table below shows actual demands for Fastway. Week Actual demand 20 63 21 62 22 67 23 66 24 67…
A: Formula for exponential smoothing model : Ft = At-1*alpha + (1-alpha)*Ft-1 The demand table is :…
Q: Suppose the weekly demand for a call centre is shown in the table below. Apply the moving average…
A: Find the given details below: Given details: Week Demand 1 300 2 360 3 410 4 289 5…
Q: Considering the fact that the number of students is relatively constant throughout the academic…
A: 1. The formula for 3 month weighted moving average IS- Ft = wt-1*Dt-12Dt-2 3Dt-3 Where, Ft =…
Q: 10. Quarterly demand for Jaguar XJ8’s at a Tacloban Auto dealership is forecast with the equation,…
A: Forecasting is used by companies to match supply with demand and to avoid opportunity costs issues.…
Q: Sales of tablet computers at Ted Glickman’s electron-ics store in Washington, D.C., over the past 10…
A: Formula:
Q: A manager uses this equation to predict demand for landscaping services: Ft= 10 + 5t. Over the past…
A:
Q: Two forecasting models were used to predict the future value of a time series. These are shown in…
A: Mean Absolute Deviation(MAD) and Mean Squared Error (MSE) are the two most commonly used…
Q: Use Excel to solve the below problems. 1. Construct an exponential forecasting calculator to find…
A: Since you have posted a question with multiple sub-parts, we will solve the first three sub-parts…
Q: The following table shows predicted product demand using your particular forecasting method along…
A: From the above given information, we have to compute the tracking signal of each period using the…
Q: The actual demand for the patients at EYE OPD of KTH for the first six weeks of this year follows…
A: Given data is
Q: Passenger miles flown on Northeast Airlines, a commuter firm serving the Boston hub, are shown for…
A:
Step by step
Solved in 4 steps with 4 images
- The Baker Company wants to develop a budget to predict how overhead costs vary with activity levels. Management is trying to decide whether direct labor hours (DLH) or units produced is the better measure of activity for the firm. Monthly data for the preceding 24 months appear in the file P13_40.xlsx. Use regression analysis to determine which measure, DLH or Units (or both), should be used for the budget. How would the regression equation be used to obtain the budget for the firms overhead costs?The file P13_42.xlsx contains monthly data on consumer revolving credit (in millions of dollars) through credit unions. a. Use these data to forecast consumer revolving credit through credit unions for the next 12 months. Do it in two ways. First, fit an exponential trend to the series. Second, use Holts method with optimized smoothing constants. b. Which of these two methods appears to provide the best forecasts? Answer by comparing their MAPE values.The file P13_22.xlsx contains total monthly U.S. retail sales data. While holding out the final six months of observations for validation purposes, use the method of moving averages with a carefully chosen span to forecast U.S. retail sales in the next year. Comment on the performance of your model. What makes this time series more challenging to forecast?
- Scenario 3 Ben Gibson, the purchasing manager at Coastal Products, was reviewing purchasing expenditures for packaging materials with Jeff Joyner. Ben was particularly disturbed about the amount spent on corrugated boxes purchased from Southeastern Corrugated. Ben said, I dont like the salesman from that company. He comes around here acting like he owns the place. He loves to tell us about his fancy car, house, and vacations. It seems to me he must be making too much money off of us! Jeff responded that he heard Southeastern Corrugated was going to ask for a price increase to cover the rising costs of raw material paper stock. Jeff further stated that Southeastern would probably ask for more than what was justified simply from rising paper stock costs. After the meeting, Ben decided he had heard enough. After all, he prided himself on being a results-oriented manager. There was no way he was going to allow that salesman to keep taking advantage of Coastal Products. Ben called Jeff and told him it was time to rebid the corrugated contract before Southeastern came in with a price increase request. Who did Jeff know that might be interested in the business? Jeff replied he had several companies in mind to include in the bidding process. These companies would surely come in at a lower price, partly because they used lower-grade boxes that would probably work well enough in Coastal Products process. Jeff also explained that these suppliers were not serious contenders for the business. Their purpose was to create competition with the bids. Ben told Jeff to make sure that Southeastern was well aware that these new suppliers were bidding on the contract. He also said to make sure the suppliers knew that price was going to be the determining factor in this quote, because he considered corrugated boxes to be a standard industry item. Is Ben Gibson acting legally? Is he acting ethically? Why or why not?Scenario 3 Ben Gibson, the purchasing manager at Coastal Products, was reviewing purchasing expenditures for packaging materials with Jeff Joyner. Ben was particularly disturbed about the amount spent on corrugated boxes purchased from Southeastern Corrugated. Ben said, I dont like the salesman from that company. He comes around here acting like he owns the place. He loves to tell us about his fancy car, house, and vacations. It seems to me he must be making too much money off of us! Jeff responded that he heard Southeastern Corrugated was going to ask for a price increase to cover the rising costs of raw material paper stock. Jeff further stated that Southeastern would probably ask for more than what was justified simply from rising paper stock costs. After the meeting, Ben decided he had heard enough. After all, he prided himself on being a results-oriented manager. There was no way he was going to allow that salesman to keep taking advantage of Coastal Products. Ben called Jeff and told him it was time to rebid the corrugated contract before Southeastern came in with a price increase request. Who did Jeff know that might be interested in the business? Jeff replied he had several companies in mind to include in the bidding process. These companies would surely come in at a lower price, partly because they used lower-grade boxes that would probably work well enough in Coastal Products process. Jeff also explained that these suppliers were not serious contenders for the business. Their purpose was to create competition with the bids. Ben told Jeff to make sure that Southeastern was well aware that these new suppliers were bidding on the contract. He also said to make sure the suppliers knew that price was going to be the determining factor in this quote, because he considered corrugated boxes to be a standard industry item. As the Marketing Manager for Southeastern Corrugated, what would you do upon receiving the request for quotation from Coastal Products?The owner of a restaurant in Bloomington, Indiana, has recorded sales data for the past 19 years. He has also recorded data on potentially relevant variables. The data are listed in the file P13_17.xlsx. a. Estimate a simple regression equation involving annual sales (the dependent variable) and the size of the population residing within 10 miles of the restaurant (the explanatory variable). Interpret R-square for this regression. b. Add another explanatory variableannual advertising expendituresto the regression equation in part a. Estimate and interpret this expanded equation. How does the R-square value for this multiple regression equation compare to that of the simple regression equation estimated in part a? Explain any difference between the two R-square values. How can you use the adjusted R-squares for a comparison of the two equations? c. Add one more explanatory variable to the multiple regression equation estimated in part b. In particular, estimate and interpret the coefficients of a multiple regression equation that includes the previous years advertising expenditure. How does the inclusion of this third explanatory variable affect the R-square, compared to the corresponding values for the equation of part b? Explain any changes in this value. What does the adjusted R-square for the new equation tell you?
- The file P13_02.xlsx contains five years of monthly data on sales (number of units sold) for a particular company. The company suspects that except for random noise, its sales are growing by a constant percentage each month and will continue to do so for at least the near future. a. Explain briefly whether the plot of the series visually supports the companys suspicion. b. By what percentage are sales increasing each month? c. What is the MAPE for the forecast model in part b? In words, what does it measure? Considering its magnitude, does the model seem to be doing a good job? d. In words, how does the model make forecasts for future months? Specifically, given the forecast value for the last month in the data set, what simple arithmetic could you use to obtain forecasts for the next few months?The file P13_26.xlsx contains the monthly number of airline tickets sold by the CareFree Travel Agency. a. Create a time series chart of the data. Based on what you see, which of the exponential smoothing models do you think will provide the best forecasting model? Why? b. Use simple exponential smoothing to forecast these data, using a smoothing constant of 0.1. c. Repeat part b, but search for the smoothing constant that makes RMSE as small as possible. Does it make much of an improvement over the model in part b?Suppose that a regional express delivery service company wants to estimate the cost of shipping a package (Y) as a function of cargo type, where cargo type includes the following possibilities: fragile, semifragile, and durable. Costs for 15 randomly chosen packages of approximately the same weight and same distance shipped, but of different cargo types, are provided in the file P13_16.xlsx. a. Estimate a regression equation using the given sample data, and interpret the estimated regression coefficients. b. According to the estimated regression equation, which cargo type is the most costly to ship? Which cargo type is the least costly to ship? c. How well does the estimated equation fit the given sample data? How might the fit be improved? d. Given the estimated regression equation, predict the cost of shipping a package with semifragile cargo.
- The file P13_28.xlsx contains monthly retail sales of U.S. liquor stores. a. Is seasonality present in these data? If so, characterize the seasonality pattern. b. Use Winters method to forecast this series with smoothing constants = = 0.1 and = 0.3. Does the forecast series seem to track the seasonal pattern well? What are your forecasts for the next 12 months?The file P13_29.xlsx contains monthly time series data for total U.S. retail sales of building materials (which includes retail sales of building materials, hardware and garden supply stores, and mobile home dealers). a. Is seasonality present in these data? If so, characterize the seasonality pattern. b. Use Winters method to forecast this series with smoothing constants = = 0.1 and = 0.3. Does the forecast series seem to track the seasonal pattern well? What are your forecasts for the next 12 months?Play Things is developing a new Lady Gaga doll. The company has made the following assumptions: The doll will sell for a random number of years from 1 to 10. Each of these 10 possibilities is equally likely. At the beginning of year 1, the potential market for the doll is two million. The potential market grows by an average of 4% per year. The company is 95% sure that the growth in the potential market during any year will be between 2.5% and 5.5%. It uses a normal distribution to model this. The company believes its share of the potential market during year 1 will be at worst 30%, most likely 50%, and at best 60%. It uses a triangular distribution to model this. The variable cost of producing a doll during year 1 has a triangular distribution with parameters 15, 17, and 20. The current selling price is 45. Each year, the variable cost of producing the doll will increase by an amount that is triangularly distributed with parameters 2.5%, 3%, and 3.5%. You can assume that once this change is generated, it will be the same for each year. You can also assume that the company will change its selling price by the same percentage each year. The fixed cost of developing the doll (which is incurred right away, at time 0) has a triangular distribution with parameters 5 million, 7.5 million, and 12 million. Right now there is one competitor in the market. During each year that begins with four or fewer competitors, there is a 25% chance that a new competitor will enter the market. Year t sales (for t 1) are determined as follows. Suppose that at the end of year t 1, n competitors are present (including Play Things). Then during year t, a fraction 0.9 0.1n of the company's loyal customers (last year's purchasers) will buy a doll from Play Things this year, and a fraction 0.2 0.04n of customers currently in the market ho did not purchase a doll last year will purchase a doll from Play Things this year. Adding these two provides the mean sales for this year. Then the actual sales this year is normally distributed with this mean and standard deviation equal to 7.5% of the mean. a. Use @RISK to estimate the expected NPV of this project. b. Use the percentiles in @ RISKs output to find an interval such that you are 95% certain that the companys actual NPV will be within this interval.