The following monthly sales (in thousands of AUS dollars) of chocolate boxes have been recorded for January, February, March, and April, respectively: 8, 8, 5, 9. Focusing on sales forecast accuracy for the month of April only, explain which of the following forecasting method would you recommend: the Naïve method, the Average method, or the Simple exponential smoothing method (assuming alpha=0.8 and initial state of 7)?
Q: The Carbondale Hospital is considering the purchase of a new ambulance. The decision will rest…
A: C) Using a two-period weighted moving average method the forecast for a period is calculated as the…
Q: The Pro Apparel company manufactures baseball-stylecaps with various team logos. The caps come in an…
A: Forecasting is a tool to recognize problems and opportunities in the business and turning it into…
Q: Using a 3 period moving average, what is the forecast for day 8?
A: 3 period moving average is a forecasting model which helps to identify the forecast as the average…
Q: Based on the above data calculate the demand for May using a five-month moving average Calculate the…
A: Forecasting is the process of predicting future demand based on previous demand and information.
Q: a. Compute a three-week moving average forecast for the arrival of medical clinic patients in week…
A: It is a method which calculates the overall demand of past & present in data set. It is useful…
Q: Given a 3-quarter period of actual and forecast demand as shown in the table. The company ABC sets a…
A: A forecasting method is a managerial tool which help to predict the unknown future based on…
Q: How did you get 106 for 7/1/2021? For the forecast, how would you calculate an exponential…
A: Exponential smoothing is a forecasting model which considering the actual demand and forecasting…
Q: Time left 0:30:19 The sales of XYZ company for the previous three periods are 45,42, and 43…
A: The following is the data provided: Period Data January 45 February 42 March 43 The…
Q: A pizza chain has had sales for take-out food over the last four evenings—Monday, Tuesday,…
A: A naïve forecast uses the actual demand for the previous day as the forecast demand for the next…
Q: Forecasted Year Sales Sales 2005 455 415.00 2006 510 427.00 2007 516 451.90 2008 570 471.13 2009 585…
A: Given that: Smoothing constant = 0.6 Starting Forecast = 415 and Year Sales 2005 455 2006 510…
Q: An operations manager at a grocery store has tracked the sales of a specific item over the last ten…
A: Given Data- Period Demand 1 24 2 23 3 26 4 36 5 26 6 30 7 32 8 26 9 25 10 28
Q: Zeus Computer Chips Inc. used to have major contracts to produce the Centrino-type chips. The market…
A:
Q: The number of heart surgeries performed at Heartville General Hospital has increased steadily over…
A: Note: - As we can answer only up to three subparts we will answer the first three subparts(1, 2, and…
Q: Complete the "Forecast for tomorrow" column in the table above. Use an exponential smoothing…
A:
Q: Daily high temperatures in st. Louis for the last week were as follows:…
A: Given information:Temperatures in last week is 33,33,38,36,43,23,28
Q: Given the following history, use a three-quarter moving average to forecast the demand for the third…
A: Given data is
Q: b) What is this year's forecast using a three-year weighted moving average with weights of 0.5, 0.3,…
A: The concept of Operation Management: Operation management is the management that applies to a…
Q: Week Cheeseburger Sales 1 354 2 344 3 368 4 317 5 361 Based on historical observations…
A:
Q: ) Using the 3-year moving average, provide the forecast from periods 4 through 12 (round your…
A: Forecasting is a technique used to predict future outcomes on the basis of past data. In businesses…
Q: Auto sales at Carmen's Chevrolet are shown below. Using a 3-week weighted moving average (w₁-0.5,…
A: Forecasting is a technique used to predict future outcomes on the basis of past data. In businesses…
Q: Passenger miles flown on Northeast Airlines, a commuter firm serving the Boston hub, are shown for…
A: Find the given details below: Given details: Week Actual Passenger Miles(in 1000) 1 17 2 21…
Q: The Carbondale Hospital is considering the purchase of a new ambulance. The decision will rest…
A: Note:-We’ll answer the first three subparts of the question since the exact one wasn’t specified.…
Q: The operations manager using a combination of methods has forecast sales of Lomi Cup Orders at the…
A: Given data is
Q: (Round your answers to 2 decimal places.) Complete the table above, filling in the "Forecast for…
A: Forecast refers to the estimation of the future happening according to the previous and current data…
Q: What should be our forecast accuracy target if there is a high degree of volatility in customer…
A: Forecasting is the process of estimating the future demand according to the historic or previous…
Q: Sales of Volkswagen's popular Beetle have grown steadily at auto dealerships in Nevada during the…
A: Given table- Year Sales 1 450 2 502 3 520 4 570 5 575
Q: Given the following history, use a three-quarter moving average to forecast the demand for the third…
A: 3 -period moving average forecast = At-1+At-2+At-33 Where, At-1= Actual data of previous period t…
Q: hovo uses the ZX-81 chip in some of its laptop computers. The prices for the chip during the last 12…
A: a) b)
Q: Maria sells banana que every afternoon. She sells her product everyday except during Sundays. The…
A:
Q: Using exponential smoothing with a weight of 0.6 on actual values: (a) If sales are $45,000 and…
A: Serial No Years Actual sales(At) Forecast sales(Ft) F1 2017 45000 - F2 2018 50000 45000 F3…
Q: A police station had to deploy a police officer for an emergency multiple times in the last four…
A: Exponential smoothing is a univariate time series forecasting approach that may be expanded to…
Q: Predict the forecast for week 35 using an exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant of 0.20.
A: Forecasting is the process of prediction in which sales demand is estimated using historic…
Q: (a) Compute the forecast sale using a = 0.20 and a = 0.35 respectively, (b) solve for MAD, SSE, MSE,…
A: Forecasting is the process of estimating the future demand using previous or historic data or…
Q: (a) Suppose the data in the table below represents total revenues (in $ millions) for one real…
A: Below is the solution:-
Q: Develop a forecast of enrolment beginning 2014 to 2021 using 3-years moving average forecast…
A: Forecasting is a technique that helps the business to predict the unknown future using the known…
Q: I got super lost on this one, the correct answers are shown but not how they solved or got to the…
A: Formula: Answer:
Q: Forecasting Historical records show the past ten Hood Lacrosse games having the following…
A: Forecasting is the process of prediction in which sales demand is estimated using historic…
Q: Can you either overestimate or underestimate the actual sales number for a poor forecast?
A: A forecast is a foresight of whatever will occur. While usually practiced in the circumstances of…
Q: Given the following history, use a three-quarter moving average to forecast the demand for the third…
A: The solution for the above is mentioned in the below excel spreadsheet as follows.
Q: West Indies Batting Inc is again on the rise due to the increasing sale of cricket bats throughout…
A: Note: - Since we can answer only up to three subparts we will answer the first three subparts(1, 2,…
Q: MSE
A: 3 period moving average = First month + Second month + Third month 3
Q: Assume that the initial forecast for February is $85,000 and the initial trend adjustment is 0. The…
A: Unadjusted forecast = alpha*actual income of previous period+(1-alpha)*forecast of the previous…
Q: Passenger miles flown on Northeast Airlines, a commuter firm serving the Boston hub, are shown for…
A: Given, Week 1 2…
Q: Interpret the MAD of the most accurate among the forecasting models below. A. Naïve approach; B.…
A: Find the Given details below: Given Details: Month Demand (100 Liters) 1 39 2 47 3 39 4…
Q: 9. For a specific model of a shoe brand, Carrefour (NIZWA) experienced a sales of 1000 units, 1100…
A: Formulas used: Weighted moving average = ∑widi where w is the weight. d is the actual demand/sales i…
Q: 1 The demand for automobiles at Crescent Auto Dealers for the past 8 weeks is as follows.…
A: Find the Given details below: Given details: Week Auto Demand Weights 1 9 0.1 2 11 0.3 3…
The following monthly sales (in thousands of AUS dollars) of chocolate boxes have been recorded for January, February, March, and April, respectively: 8, 8, 5, 9. Focusing on sales forecast accuracy for the month of April only, explain which of the following
Trending now
This is a popular solution!
Step by step
Solved in 2 steps with 1 images
- Under what conditions might a firm use multiple forecasting methods?Scenario 4 Sharon Gillespie, a new buyer at Visionex, Inc., was reviewing quotations for a tooling contract submitted by four suppliers. She was evaluating the quotes based on price, target quality levels, and delivery lead time promises. As she was working, her manager, Dave Cox, entered her office. He asked how everything was progressing and if she needed any help. She mentioned she was reviewing quotations from suppliers for a tooling contract. Dave asked who the interested suppliers were and if she had made a decision. Sharon indicated that one supplier, Apex, appeared to fit exactly the requirements Visionex had specified in the proposal. Dave told her to keep up the good work. Later that day Dave again visited Sharons office. He stated that he had done some research on the suppliers and felt that another supplier, Micron, appeared to have the best track record with Visionex. He pointed out that Sharons first choice was a new supplier to Visionex and there was some risk involved with that choice. Dave indicated that it would please him greatly if she selected Micron for the contract. The next day Sharon was having lunch with another buyer, Mark Smith. She mentioned the conversation with Dave and said she honestly felt that Apex was the best choice. When Mark asked Sharon who Dave preferred, she answered, Micron. At that point Mark rolled his eyes and shook his head. Sharon asked what the body language was all about. Mark replied, Look, I know youre new but you should know this. I heard last week that Daves brother-in-law is a new part owner of Micron. I was wondering how soon it would be before he started steering business to that company. He is not the straightest character. Sharon was shocked. After a few moments, she announced that her original choice was still the best selection. At that point Mark reminded Sharon that she was replacing a terminated buyer who did not go along with one of Daves previous preferred suppliers. Ethical decisions that affect a buyers ethical perspective usually involve the organizational environment, cultural environment, personal environment, and industry environment. Analyze this scenario using these four variables.Scenario 4 Sharon Gillespie, a new buyer at Visionex, Inc., was reviewing quotations for a tooling contract submitted by four suppliers. She was evaluating the quotes based on price, target quality levels, and delivery lead time promises. As she was working, her manager, Dave Cox, entered her office. He asked how everything was progressing and if she needed any help. She mentioned she was reviewing quotations from suppliers for a tooling contract. Dave asked who the interested suppliers were and if she had made a decision. Sharon indicated that one supplier, Apex, appeared to fit exactly the requirements Visionex had specified in the proposal. Dave told her to keep up the good work. Later that day Dave again visited Sharons office. He stated that he had done some research on the suppliers and felt that another supplier, Micron, appeared to have the best track record with Visionex. He pointed out that Sharons first choice was a new supplier to Visionex and there was some risk involved with that choice. Dave indicated that it would please him greatly if she selected Micron for the contract. The next day Sharon was having lunch with another buyer, Mark Smith. She mentioned the conversation with Dave and said she honestly felt that Apex was the best choice. When Mark asked Sharon who Dave preferred, she answered, Micron. At that point Mark rolled his eyes and shook his head. Sharon asked what the body language was all about. Mark replied, Look, I know youre new but you should know this. I heard last week that Daves brother-in-law is a new part owner of Micron. I was wondering how soon it would be before he started steering business to that company. He is not the straightest character. Sharon was shocked. After a few moments, she announced that her original choice was still the best selection. At that point Mark reminded Sharon that she was replacing a terminated buyer who did not go along with one of Daves previous preferred suppliers. What should Sharon do in this situation?
- Scenario 4 Sharon Gillespie, a new buyer at Visionex, Inc., was reviewing quotations for a tooling contract submitted by four suppliers. She was evaluating the quotes based on price, target quality levels, and delivery lead time promises. As she was working, her manager, Dave Cox, entered her office. He asked how everything was progressing and if she needed any help. She mentioned she was reviewing quotations from suppliers for a tooling contract. Dave asked who the interested suppliers were and if she had made a decision. Sharon indicated that one supplier, Apex, appeared to fit exactly the requirements Visionex had specified in the proposal. Dave told her to keep up the good work. Later that day Dave again visited Sharons office. He stated that he had done some research on the suppliers and felt that another supplier, Micron, appeared to have the best track record with Visionex. He pointed out that Sharons first choice was a new supplier to Visionex and there was some risk involved with that choice. Dave indicated that it would please him greatly if she selected Micron for the contract. The next day Sharon was having lunch with another buyer, Mark Smith. She mentioned the conversation with Dave and said she honestly felt that Apex was the best choice. When Mark asked Sharon who Dave preferred, she answered, Micron. At that point Mark rolled his eyes and shook his head. Sharon asked what the body language was all about. Mark replied, Look, I know youre new but you should know this. I heard last week that Daves brother-in-law is a new part owner of Micron. I was wondering how soon it would be before he started steering business to that company. He is not the straightest character. Sharon was shocked. After a few moments, she announced that her original choice was still the best selection. At that point Mark reminded Sharon that she was replacing a terminated buyer who did not go along with one of Daves previous preferred suppliers. What does the Institute of Supply Management code of ethics say about financial conflicts of interest?Scenario 3 Ben Gibson, the purchasing manager at Coastal Products, was reviewing purchasing expenditures for packaging materials with Jeff Joyner. Ben was particularly disturbed about the amount spent on corrugated boxes purchased from Southeastern Corrugated. Ben said, I dont like the salesman from that company. He comes around here acting like he owns the place. He loves to tell us about his fancy car, house, and vacations. It seems to me he must be making too much money off of us! Jeff responded that he heard Southeastern Corrugated was going to ask for a price increase to cover the rising costs of raw material paper stock. Jeff further stated that Southeastern would probably ask for more than what was justified simply from rising paper stock costs. After the meeting, Ben decided he had heard enough. After all, he prided himself on being a results-oriented manager. There was no way he was going to allow that salesman to keep taking advantage of Coastal Products. Ben called Jeff and told him it was time to rebid the corrugated contract before Southeastern came in with a price increase request. Who did Jeff know that might be interested in the business? Jeff replied he had several companies in mind to include in the bidding process. These companies would surely come in at a lower price, partly because they used lower-grade boxes that would probably work well enough in Coastal Products process. Jeff also explained that these suppliers were not serious contenders for the business. Their purpose was to create competition with the bids. Ben told Jeff to make sure that Southeastern was well aware that these new suppliers were bidding on the contract. He also said to make sure the suppliers knew that price was going to be the determining factor in this quote, because he considered corrugated boxes to be a standard industry item. Is Ben Gibson acting legally? Is he acting ethically? Why or why not?Scenario 3 Ben Gibson, the purchasing manager at Coastal Products, was reviewing purchasing expenditures for packaging materials with Jeff Joyner. Ben was particularly disturbed about the amount spent on corrugated boxes purchased from Southeastern Corrugated. Ben said, I dont like the salesman from that company. He comes around here acting like he owns the place. He loves to tell us about his fancy car, house, and vacations. It seems to me he must be making too much money off of us! Jeff responded that he heard Southeastern Corrugated was going to ask for a price increase to cover the rising costs of raw material paper stock. Jeff further stated that Southeastern would probably ask for more than what was justified simply from rising paper stock costs. After the meeting, Ben decided he had heard enough. After all, he prided himself on being a results-oriented manager. There was no way he was going to allow that salesman to keep taking advantage of Coastal Products. Ben called Jeff and told him it was time to rebid the corrugated contract before Southeastern came in with a price increase request. Who did Jeff know that might be interested in the business? Jeff replied he had several companies in mind to include in the bidding process. These companies would surely come in at a lower price, partly because they used lower-grade boxes that would probably work well enough in Coastal Products process. Jeff also explained that these suppliers were not serious contenders for the business. Their purpose was to create competition with the bids. Ben told Jeff to make sure that Southeastern was well aware that these new suppliers were bidding on the contract. He also said to make sure the suppliers knew that price was going to be the determining factor in this quote, because he considered corrugated boxes to be a standard industry item. As the Marketing Manager for Southeastern Corrugated, what would you do upon receiving the request for quotation from Coastal Products?
- The Baker Company wants to develop a budget to predict how overhead costs vary with activity levels. Management is trying to decide whether direct labor hours (DLH) or units produced is the better measure of activity for the firm. Monthly data for the preceding 24 months appear in the file P13_40.xlsx. Use regression analysis to determine which measure, DLH or Units (or both), should be used for the budget. How would the regression equation be used to obtain the budget for the firms overhead costs?The file P13_42.xlsx contains monthly data on consumer revolving credit (in millions of dollars) through credit unions. a. Use these data to forecast consumer revolving credit through credit unions for the next 12 months. Do it in two ways. First, fit an exponential trend to the series. Second, use Holts method with optimized smoothing constants. b. Which of these two methods appears to provide the best forecasts? Answer by comparing their MAPE values.The owner of a restaurant in Bloomington, Indiana, has recorded sales data for the past 19 years. He has also recorded data on potentially relevant variables. The data are listed in the file P13_17.xlsx. a. Estimate a simple regression equation involving annual sales (the dependent variable) and the size of the population residing within 10 miles of the restaurant (the explanatory variable). Interpret R-square for this regression. b. Add another explanatory variableannual advertising expendituresto the regression equation in part a. Estimate and interpret this expanded equation. How does the R-square value for this multiple regression equation compare to that of the simple regression equation estimated in part a? Explain any difference between the two R-square values. How can you use the adjusted R-squares for a comparison of the two equations? c. Add one more explanatory variable to the multiple regression equation estimated in part b. In particular, estimate and interpret the coefficients of a multiple regression equation that includes the previous years advertising expenditure. How does the inclusion of this third explanatory variable affect the R-square, compared to the corresponding values for the equation of part b? Explain any changes in this value. What does the adjusted R-square for the new equation tell you?
- The following monthly sales of chocolate boxes (in thousands of AUS dollars) have been recorded for January, February, March, and April, respectively: 9.5, 8, 9, 9. Examining the forecasting accuracy for the month of April only: Explain which of the following forecasting method would you recommend: (i) the Naïve method, (ii) the Average method, or (iii) the Simple exponential smoothing method (assuming alpha= 0.8 and initial state (in December) of 8.5)?14 Community General Hospital finds itself treating many bicycle accident victims. Data from the last seven 24-hour periods is shown below: Day Bicycle Victims 1 8 2 14 3 8 4 14 5 18 6 15 With an alpha value of 0.31 and a starting forecast in day 3 equal to the 21 , what is the exponentially smoothed forecast for day 4? (Round to two decimal places) 15 What is the exponentially smoothed forecast for day 5? (Round to two decimal places)Following table shows the weekly sales of smart phones at electronic retail store: Week Number of smart phones Sold Forecast using 3 period moving average Error Forecast using exponential smoothing (with α =0.4) Error 1 48 2 41 3 55 4 64 5 62 6 55 7 8 Answer the following questions based on the data given above. Show all your calculations. What is the expected sales for the 7th week based on 3 period moving average. What is the forecast for the 8th week using the same method if the actual sales for week 7 happens to be 70? What is the expected sales for the 7th week based on exponential smoothing with α = 0.3? Which of the above two forecasting method is better based on MSE? Explain why?