The forecasting staff for the Prizer Corporation has developed a model to predict sales of its air-cushioned-ride snowmobiles. The model specifies that sales S vary jointly with disposable personal income Y and the population between ages 15 and 40, Z, and inversely with the price of the snowmobiles P. Based on past data, the best estimate of this relationship isS = k (YZ/ P)where k has been estimated (with past data) to equal 100.a. If Y = $11,000, Z = $1,200, and P = $20,000, what value would you predict for S?b. What happens if P is reduced to $17,500?c. How would you go about developing a value for k?d. What are the potential weaknesses of this model?

The forecasting staff for the Prizer Corporation has developed a model to predict sales of its air-cushioned-ride snowmobiles. The model specifies that sales S vary jointly with disposable personal income Y and the population between ages 15 and 40, Z, and inversely with the price of the snowmobiles P. Based on past data, the best estimate of this relationship isS = k (YZ/ P)where k has been estimated (with past data) to equal 100.a. If Y = $11,000, Z = $1,200, and P = $20,000, what value would you predict for S?b. What happens if P is reduced to $17,500?c. How would you go about developing a value for k?d. What are the potential weaknesses of this model?

Managerial Economics: Applications, Strategies and Tactics (MindTap Course List)

14th Edition

ISBN:9781305506381

Author:James R. McGuigan, R. Charles Moyer, Frederick H.deB. Harris

Publisher:James R. McGuigan, R. Charles Moyer, Frederick H.deB. Harris

Chapter5: Business And Economic Forecasting

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 1E: The forecasting staff for the Prizer Corporation has developed a model to predict sales of its...

See similar textbooks

Similar questions

Estimate the double-log (log linear) time trend model for log cruise ship arrivals against log time. Estimate a linear time trend model of cruise ship arrivals against time. Calculate the root mean square error between the predicted and actual value of cruise ship arrivals. Is the root mean square error greater for the double log non-linear time trend model or for the linear time trend model?
Eastman Publishing Company is considering publishing an electronic textbook about spreadsheet applications for business. The fixed cost of manuscript preparation, textbook design, and web site construction is estimated to be $172,000. Variable processing costs are estimated to be $5 per book. The publisher plans to sell single-user access to the book for $42. Through a series of web-based experiments, Eastman has created a predictive model that estimates demand as a function of price. The predictive model is demand = 4,000 − 6p, where p is the price of the e-book. (a) Construct an appropriate spreadsheet model for calculating the profit/loss at a given single-user access price taking into account the above demand function. What is the profit estimated by your model for the given costs and single user access price (in dollars). $ (b) Use Goal Seek to calculate the price (in dollars) that results in breakeven. (Round your answer to the nearest cent.) $ (c) Use a data table that varies…
The following ACF plots were produced for raw data of monthly sales of two different variables, A and B. a) Explain which variable is likely to be easier to forecast. b) Explain how your answer to part a) would change if these were residuals of an ARIMA model instead of “raw data of monthly sales”.
Consider the simple regression model: y=0.56+1.56x+u Using this and assuming the estimated Var(y)=0.64 and the estimated Var(x)=3.07, what is the estimated Var(x+y)?
The models below have been estimated using monthly data for the period 2000: 1-2020: 12. The natural logarithm of the variables used in this model is taken and the transaction is made. D08 is the dummy variable that takes a value of 1 in 2008 and after and 0 in other periods. s.e. indicates the standard error. Comment on the coefficients of variables D08 and (X2t * D08) in the model (3) above.
a- Write down the economic function for the above estimation by using the information obtained from above table .b- Write down the economic model for the above estimation by using the information obtained from above table . c- Write down the econometric model for the above estimation by using the information obtained from above table .
TRUE OR FALSE. A model with heterosdasticity problem most likely has insignificant parameter estimates.
Is it true of false that the classical errors in variables (CEV) assumption is that the measurement error is correlated with the unobserved true value of the explanatory variable.
An independent variable in a model is also called:a. explained variable.b. unexplained variable.c. explanatory variable.d. dependent variable.
What conditions must non-linear time series models, such as vector autoregressive models, satisfy in order to use impulse response functions
A researcher has a sample of 6 annual observations {94, 104, 102, 99, 111 and 107} for the CPI in country Z for the period 2015 to 2020, and wants to forecast CPI for the years 2021, 2022 and 2023. The researcher uses 3 different forecasting models: A, B and C. Model A is an AR(1) model with no drift and with an estimated autoregressive coefficient = 0.7. Model B is a MA(1) model with no constant and with an estimated MA coefficient = -0.4 (note the minus !). Model C is a random walk model with no drift. The error terms over the 2015-2020 period were estimated to have the values: {3, -1, 2, 4, -3, 1}. a. Compute the 2021, 2022 and 2023 forecasted values for the consumer price index based on the three models. Show the formulas and the details of your calculations, and explain all the related symbols. b. Suppose that the actual values of the CPI over the 2021, 2022 and 2023 were {108, 114, 105}. Calculate the Root mean square error of the three model forecasts over the 2021-2023…
Comprehensively state the criteria and process of selecting appropriate models for time series forecasting.