YEAR SALES (At) FORECAST (Ft) 1 450 410 2 495 3 518 4 563 5 584 6 ? a. Using exponential smoothing with a weight of α = 0.30, develop forecasts for years 2 through 6? b. Calculate the MAD for your data?

YEAR SALES (At) FORECAST (Ft) 1 450 410 2 495 3 518 4 563 5 584 6 ? a. Using exponential smoothing with a weight of α = 0.30, develop forecasts for years 2 through 6? b. Calculate the MAD for your data?

Practical Management Science

6th Edition

ISBN:9781337406659

Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Chapter13: Regression And Forecasting Models

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 42P: The file P13_42.xlsx contains monthly data on consumer revolving credit (in millions of dollars)...

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Concept explainers

Forecasting

Forecasting is a methodology that uses historical data as inputs to make well-informed predictions about the course of future trends. Forecasting is the method of making forecasts based on historical and current data, most commonly by trend analysis. In the business world, forecasting is a basic statistical task. Forecasting is used by businesses to decide how to allocate their budgets or prepare for expected expenditures in the future. Forecasts help managers formulate and execute production plans by providing forecasts. The primary goal of forecasting is to make accurate predictions.

Question

Sales of Volkswagen’s popular Beetle have grown steadily at auto dealerships in
Nevada during the past 5 years (see table below). The sales manager had predicted
before the new model was introduced that first year sales would be 410 VWs.
YEAR SALES (At) FORECAST (Ft)
1 450 410
2 495
3 518
4 563
5 584
6 ?

a. Using exponential smoothing with a weight of α = 0.30, develop forecasts for years
2 through 6?
b. Calculate the MAD for your data?

Leveraging special tenchniques in analyzing historical data to predict future trends. Forecasting covers the methods and types of forecasting and their application to case studies.

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