Concept explainers
Based on Marcus (1990). The Balboa mutual fund has beaten the Standard and Poor’s 500 during 11 of the last 13 years. People use this as an argument that you can beat the market. Here is another way to look at it that shows that Balboa’s beating the market 11 out of 13 times is not unusual. Consider 50 mutual funds, each of which has a 50% chance of beating the market during a given year. Use simulation to estimate the probability that over a 13-year period the best of the 50 mutual funds will beat the market for at least 11 out of 13 years. This probability turns out to exceed 40%, which means that the best mutual fund beating the market 11 out of 13 years is not an unusual occurrence after all.
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Practical Management Science, Loose-leaf Version
- A martingale betting strategy works as follows. You begin with a certain amount of money and repeatedly play a game in which you have a 40% chance of winning any bet. In the first game, you bet 1. From then on, every time you win a bet, you bet 1 the next time. Each time you lose, you double your previous bet. Currently you have 63. Assuming you have unlimited credit, so that you can bet more money than you have, use simulation to estimate the profit or loss you will have after playing the game 50 times.arrow_forwardAssume a very good NBA team has a 70% chance of winning in each game it plays. During an 82-game season what is the average length of the teams longest winning streak? What is the probability that the team has a winning streak of at least 16 games? Use simulation to answer these questions, where each iteration of the simulation generates the outcomes of all 82 games.arrow_forwardIf you own a stock, buying a put option on the stock will greatly reduce your risk. This is the idea behind portfolio insurance. To illustrate, consider a stock that currently sells for 56 and has an annual volatility of 30%. Assume the risk-free rate is 8%, and you estimate that the stocks annual growth rate is 12%. a. Suppose you own 100 shares of this stock. Use simulation to estimate the probability distribution of the percentage return earned on this stock during a one-year period. b. Now suppose you also buy a put option (for 238) on the stock. The option has an exercise price of 50 and an exercise date one year from now. Use simulation to estimate the probability distribution of the percentage return on your portfolio over a one-year period. Can you see why this strategy is called a portfolio insurance strategy? c. Use simulation to show that the put option should, indeed, sell for about 238.arrow_forward
- The game of Chuck-a-Luck is played as follows: You pick a number between 1 and 6 and toss three dice. If your number does not appear, you lose 1. If your number appears x times, you win x. On the average, use simulation to find the average amount of money you will win or lose on each play of the game.arrow_forwardYou have 5 and your opponent has 10. You flip a fair coin and if heads comes up, your opponent pays you 1. If tails comes up, you pay your opponent 1. The game is finished when one player has all the money or after 100 tosses, whichever comes first. Use simulation to estimate the probability that you end up with all the money and the probability that neither of you goes broke in 100 tosses.arrow_forwardBig Hit Video must determine how many copies of a new video to purchase. Assume that the companys goal is to purchase a number of copies that maximizes its expected profit from the video during the next year. Describe how you would use simulation to shed light on this problem. Assume that each time a video is rented, it is rented for one day.arrow_forward
- Suppose you simulate a gambling situation where you place many bets. On each bet, the distribution of your net winnings (loss if negative) is highly skewed to the left because there are some possibilities of really large losses but not much upside potential. Your only simulation output is the average of the results of all the bets. If you run @RISK with many iterations and look at the resulting histogram of this output, what will it look like? Why?arrow_forwardWhat price do farmers get for their watermelon crops? In the third week of July, a random sample of 42 farming regions gave a sample mean of = $6.88 per 100 pounds of watermelon. Assume that σ is known to be $1.92 per 100 pounds. (a) Find a 90% confidence interval for the population mean price (per 100 pounds) that farmers in this region get for their watermelon crop (in dollars). What is the margin of error (in dollars)? (For each answer, enter a number. Round your answers to two decimal places.)lower limit $ upper limit $ margin of error $ (b) Find the sample size necessary for a 90% confidence level with maximal error of estimate E = 0.27 for the mean price per 100 pounds of watermelon. (Enter a number. Round up to the nearest whole number.) farming regions (c) A farm brings 15 tons of watermelon to market. Find a 90% confidence interval for the population mean cash value of this crop (in dollars). What is the margin of error (in dollars)? Hint: 1 ton is 2000…arrow_forwardNew York City is the most expensive city in the United States for lodging. The mean hotel room rate is $204 per night (USA Today, April 30, 2012). Assume that room rates are normally distributed with a standard deviation of $55. Use Table 1 in Appendix B. a. What is the probability that a hotel room costs $225 or more per night (to 4 decimals)? b. What is the probability that a hotel room costs less than $140 per night (to 4 decimals)? c. What is the probability that a hotel room costs between $200 and $300 per night (to 4 decimals)? d. What is the cost of the 20% most expensive hotel rooms in New York City? Round up to the next dollar. or - Select your answer - ♥arrow_forward
- Suppose you were preparing two-way tables of percentages for the following pairs of variables. How would you run the percentages? Crime rate and unemployment ratearrow_forwardA borrower takes out a 30-year adjustable rate mortgage loan for $200,000 with monthly payments. The first two years of the loan have a "teaser" rate of 4 percent, after that the rate can reset with a 5 percent annual payment cap. On the reset date, the composite rate is 6 percent. Assume that the loan allows for negative amortization. What would be the outstanding balance on the loan at the end of Year 3? Multiple Choice $192,926 $190,074 $192,812 $192,337arrow_forwardUsing the data in the following table, calculate the return for investing in Boeing stock (BA) from January 2, 2008, to January 2, 2009, and also from January 3, 2011, to January 3, 2012, assuming all dividends are reinvested in the stock immediately. Historical Stock and Dividend Data for Boeing Date Price Dividend Date Price Dividend 1/2/2008 86.62 1/3/2011 66.40 2/6/2008 79.91 0.40 2/9/2011 72.63 0.42 5/7/2008 84.55 0.40 5/11/2011 79.08 0.42 8/6/2008 65.40 0.40 8/10/2011 57.41 0.42 11/5/2008 49.55 0.40 11/8/2011 66.65 0.42 1/2/2009 45.25 1/3/2012 74.22 Return from January 2, 2008, to January 2, 2009 is how much? (Round to two decimal places.)arrow_forward
- Practical Management ScienceOperations ManagementISBN:9781337406659Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.Publisher:Cengage,