Investment Timing Option: Option Analysis
Rework Problem 14-1 using the Black-Scholes model to estimate the value of the option. Assume that the variance of the project’s
14–1 Investment Timing Option: Decision-Tree Analysis
Kim Hotels is interested in developing a new hotel in Seoul. The company estimates that the hotel would require an initial investment of $20 million. Kim expects the hotel will produce positive cash flows of $3 million a year at the end of each of the next 20 years. The project’s cost of capital is 13%.
a. What is the project’s
b. Kim expects the cash flows to be $3 million a year, but it recognizes that the cash flows could actually be much higher or lower, depending on whether the Korean government imposes a large hotel tax. One year from now, Kim will know whether the tax will be imposed. There is a 50% chance that the tax will be imposed, in which case the yearly cash flows will be only $2.2 million. At the same time, there is a 50% chance that the tax will not be imposed, in which case the yearly cash flows will be $3.8 million. Kim is deciding whether to proceed with the hotel today or to wait a year to find out whether the tax will be imposed. If Kim waits a year, the initial investment will remain at $20 million. Assume that all cash flows are discounted at 13%. Use decision-tree analysis to determine whether Kim should proceed with the project today or wait a year before deciding.
Want to see the full answer?
Check out a sample textbook solutionChapter 14 Solutions
INTERMEDIATE FINAN.MGMT.(LL)-W/MINDTAP
- Investment Timing Option: Option Analysis Kim Hotels is interested in developing a new hotel in Seoul. The company estimates that the hotel would require an initial investment of $20 million. Kim expects the hotel will produce positive cash flows of $3 million a year at the end of each of the next 20 years. The project's cost of capital is 13%. Kim expects the cash flows to be $3 million a year, but it recognizes that the cash flows could actually be much higher or lower, depending on whether the Korean government imposes a large hotel tax. One year from now, Kim will know whether the tax will be imposed. There is a 50% chance that the tax will be imposed, in which case the yearly cash flows will be only $2.2 million. At the same time, there is a 50% chance that the tax will not be imposed, in which case the yearly cash flows will be $3.8 million. Kim is deciding whether to proceed with the hotel today or to wait a year to find out whether the tax will be imposed. If Kim waits a year,…arrow_forwardInvestment Timing Option: Option Analysis Activity Frame Kim Hotels is interested in developing a new hotel in Seoul. The company estimates that the hotel would require an initial investment of $20 million. Kim expects the hotel will produce positive cash flows of $3 million a year at the end of each of the next 20 years. The project's cost of capital is 13%. Kim expects the cash flows to be $3 million a year, but it recognizes that the cash flows could actually be much higher or lower, depending on whether the Korean government imposes a large hotel tax. One year from now, Kim will know whether the tax will be imposed. There is a 50% chance that the tax will be imposed, in which case the yearly cash flows will be only $2.2 million. At the same time, there is a 50% chance that the tax will not be imposed, in which case the yearly cash flows will be $3.8 million. Kim is deciding whether to proceed with the hotel today or to wait a year to find out whether the tax will be imposed. If Kim…arrow_forward4. Investment timing options Companies often need to choose between making an investment now or waiting until the company can gather more relevant information about the potential project. This opportunity to wait before making the decision is called the investment timing option. Consider the case: Tolbotics Inc. is considering a three-year project that will require an initial investment of $44,000. If market demand is strong, Tolbotics Inc. thinks that the project will generate cash flows of $29,000 per year. However, if market demand is weak, the company believes that the project will generate cash flows of only $2,000 per year. The company thinks that there is a 50% chance that demand will be strong and a 50% chance that demand will be weak. If the company uses a project cost of capital of 12%, what will be the expected net present value (NPV) of this project? (Note: Do not round intermediate calculations and round your answer to the nearest whole dollar.) -$7,111 O-$6,433 O-$7,788…arrow_forward
- Suppose your firm is considering investing in a project with the cash flows shown below, that the required rate of return on projects of this risk class is 12 percent, and that the maximum allowable payback and discounted payback statistic for the project are 2 and 3 years, respectively. Time 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Cash Flow -1,150 30 570 770 770 370 770 Use the NPV decision rule to evaluate this project; should it be accepted or rejected? Multiple Choice A. $968.66, accept B. $2,118.66, accept C. $-495.13, reject D. $864.87, acceptarrow_forwardSuppose your firm is considering investing in a project with the cash flows shown below, that the required rate of return on projects of this risk class is 13 percent, and that the maximum allowable payback and discounted payback statistic for the project are 2 and 3 years, respectively. Time 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Cash Flow -1,110 70 530 730 730 330 730 Use the payback decision rule to evaluate this project; should it be accepted or rejected? Multiple Choice A. 1.10 years, accept B. 4.00 years, reject C. 2.70 years, reject D. 0 years, acceptarrow_forward4. Investment timing options Companies often need to choose between making an investment now or waiting until the company can gather more relevant information about the potential project. This opportunity to wait before making the decision is called the investment timing option. Consider the case: General Forge and Foundry Co. is considering a three-year project that will require an initial investment of $42,500. If market demand is strong, General Forge and Foundry Co. thinks that the project will generate cash flows of $28,000 per year. However, if market demand is weak, the company believes that the project will generate cash flows of only $2,000 per year. The company thinks that there is a 50% chance that demand will be strong and a 50% chance that demand will be weak. If the company uses a project cost of capital of 14%, what will be the expected net present value (NPV) of this project? (Note: Do not round intermediate calculations and round your answer to the…arrow_forward
- Suppose your firm is considering investing in a project with the cash flows shown below, that the required rate of return on projects of this risk class is 12 percent, and that the maximum allowable payback and discounted payback statistic for the project are 2 and 3 years, respectively. Time 1 2 3 4 Cash Flow -1,150 30 570 770 770 370 770 Use the NPV decision rule to evaluate this project; should it be accepted or rejected?arrow_forwardSuppose your firm is considering investing in a project with the cash flows shown below, that the required rate of return on projects of this risk class is 14 percent, and that the maximum allowable payback and discounted payback statistic for the project are 2 and 3 years, respectively. Time 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Cash Flow −1,010 110 490 690 690 290 690 Use the payback decision rule to evaluate this project; should it be accepted or rejected? Multiple Choice 4.00 years, reject 0 years, accept 2.59 years, reject 1.16 years, acceptarrow_forwardQuestion 1: Salalalh Methanol company management is considering three competing investment Projects A, B & C Year Initial Investment Project A Project B 12000 4150 5260 Project C 12000 12000 1200 3100 5225 3 4 Assume a discount Rate of 5.45 % 3800 4600 7360 9460 8250 9275 9300 Use the information above and help the management in choosing the most desirable Project using Payback periodarrow_forward
- Suppose your firm is considering two mutually exclusive, required projects with the cash flows shown below. The required rate of return on projects of both of their risk class is 8 percent, and that the maximum allowable payback and discounted payback statistic for the projects are 2 and 3 years, respectively. Time Project A Cash Flow Project B Cash Flow Use the payback decision rule to evaluate these projects, which one(s) should it be accepted or rejected? Multiple Choice 0 -35,000 -45,000 1 25,000 25,000 2 45,000 5,000 3 16,000 65,000arrow_forwardTomodachi Co plans to invest in either Projects M or N which are described below. The company's cost of capital is 15%, the market return is 15% and the risk-free rate is 5%. The beta for project M is 1.20 and the beta for project N is 1.40. What is the NPV for Project M when using the risk-adjusted discount rate method of project evaluation? Initial Investment Project M $700,000 Project N $780,000 Year 1 $300,000 $220,000 2 $300,000 320,000 3 $300,000 380,000 4 $300,000 460,000 or You must decide firm which of the proposed projects should be accepted for the upcoming year since only $6 million is available. Which projects should be accepted?arrow_forwardRisk analysis Green Energy is considering expanding its investment in renewable energy generation. Two possible types, wind and solar, of energy generation are under review. After investigating the possible outcomes, the company made the estimates shown in the following table: . The pessimistic and optimistic outcomes occur with a probablity of 25%, and the most likely outcome occurs with a probability of 50%. a. Determine the range of the rates of return for each of the two projects. b. Which project is less risky? c. If you were making the investment decision, which one would you choose? What does this imply about your feelings toward risk? d. Assume that solar farm's most likely outcome is 18% per year and that all other facts remain the same. Does this change your answer to part c? is less risky because it has a range for the rate of return. c. If you were making the investment decision, which one would you choose? What does this imply about your feelings toward risk? (Select the…arrow_forward
- Intermediate Financial Management (MindTap Course...FinanceISBN:9781337395083Author:Eugene F. Brigham, Phillip R. DavesPublisher:Cengage LearningPrinciples of Accounting Volume 2AccountingISBN:9781947172609Author:OpenStaxPublisher:OpenStax College