Practical Management Science, Loose-leaf Version
5th Edition
ISBN: 9781305631540
Author: WINSTON, Wayne L.; Albright, S. Christian
Publisher: Cengage Learning
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Chapter 14.4, Problem 15P
Summary Introduction
To interpret: The standard error and R-square value.
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The following table shows the number of televisions sold over the last ten years at a local electronic store.
YEAR
TV SALES
1
150
2
300
3
480
4
600
5
630
6
640
7
700
8
825
9
900
10
980
Using trend projection, develop a formula to predict sales for years 11 and 12. You have to show all working. You will need to develop a table to calculate the slope and the intercept.
Use that formula to forecast television sales for years 11 and 12.
A pharmacist has been monitoring sales of a certain over-the-counter pain reliever. Daily sales duringthe last 15 days wereDay: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9Number sold: 36 38 42 44 48 49 50 49 52Day: 10 11 12 13 14 15Number sold: 48 52 55 54 56 57a. Which method would you suggest using to predict future sales—a linear trend equation or trendadjustedexponential smoothing? Why?b. If you learn that on some days the store ran out of the specific pain reliever, would that knowledgecause you any concern? Explain.c. Assume that the data refer to demand rather than sales. Using trend-adjusted smoothing with aninitial forecast of 50 for week 8, an initial trend estimate of 2, and .3, develop forecastsfor days 9 through 16. What is the MSE for the eight forecasts for which there are actual data?
A company that supplies gasoline to a city has recorded the weeklyusage (tons/week) for the past 3 years. The file BA3653GasolineRecord.xlsxcontains this record.(a) Propose a method for predicting the demand for gasoline. Use thatmethod to forecast demand for next year (weeks 157 to 208).(b) Improve your prediction in part (a) by including a statement about demand variability. (Hint: Look at or the range of the data.)
week
demand (tons)
1
1174.5
2
1316.2
3
1197
4
1127.3
5
1193.1
6
1260.7
7
1378.2
8
1273.7
9
1366.4
10
1113
11
1177.7
12
1056
13
1291.2
14
1269.1
15
1289.6
16
1181
17
1249
18
1212
19
1286.2
20
1204.8
21
1266.2
22
1332.4
23
1236.3
24
1266.1
25
1415.3
26
1100.1
27
1208.1
28
1505.1
29
1282.7
30
1190.5
31
1152.8
32
1089.7
33
1404.7
34
1308.6
35
1255.4
36
1106.7
37
1484.6
38
1317.4
39
1294.7
40
1154
41
1449.9
42
1174.9
43
1466.9
44
1282.4
45
1228
46
1174
47
1196.2
48
1443.8
49…
Chapter 14 Solutions
Practical Management Science, Loose-leaf Version
Ch. 14.3 - Prob. 1PCh. 14.3 - Prob. 2PCh. 14.3 - Prob. 3PCh. 14.3 - Prob. 4PCh. 14.3 - Prob. 5PCh. 14.3 - Prob. 6PCh. 14.3 - Prob. 7PCh. 14.3 - Prob. 8PCh. 14.3 - Prob. 9PCh. 14.3 - Prob. 10P
Ch. 14.4 - Prob. 12PCh. 14.4 - Prob. 13PCh. 14.4 - Prob. 14PCh. 14.4 - Prob. 15PCh. 14.4 - Prob. 16PCh. 14.4 - Prob. 17PCh. 14.6 - Prob. 19PCh. 14.6 - Prob. 20PCh. 14.6 - The file P14_21.xlsx contains the weekly sales of...Ch. 14.6 - Prob. 22PCh. 14.7 - Prob. 23PCh. 14.7 - Prob. 24PCh. 14.7 - Prob. 25PCh. 14.7 - Prob. 26PCh. 14.7 - Prob. 27PCh. 14.7 - Prob. 28PCh. 14.7 - Prob. 29PCh. 14.7 - Prob. 30PCh. 14 - Prob. 31PCh. 14 - Prob. 32PCh. 14 - Prob. 33PCh. 14 - Prob. 34PCh. 14 - Prob. 35PCh. 14 - Prob. 36PCh. 14 - Prob. 37PCh. 14 - Prob. 39PCh. 14 - Prob. 40PCh. 14 - Prob. 41PCh. 14 - Prob. 42PCh. 14 - Prob. 43PCh. 14 - Prob. 44PCh. 14 - Prob. 45PCh. 14 - Prob. 46PCh. 14 - Prob. 49P
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