PRIN.OF CORPORATE FINANCE
PRIN.OF CORPORATE FINANCE
13th Edition
ISBN: 9781260013900
Author: BREALEY
Publisher: RENT MCG
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Chapter 23, Problem 14PS
Summary Introduction

To determine: The probability that the company default.

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9(b) You may assume the Merton model for credit risk holds true for this question. A companyhas fixed debt of £45 million with term two years, the current value of the company’sassets is £52 million. The risk-free rate of return is 4.5% per annum continuouslycompounded, the assets of the company follow geometric Brownian motion with volatility25% per annum and there are no other dividends or interest payments. Calculate the riskneutral probability of default.
Suppose the estimated linear probability model  used by an FI to predict business loan applicant  default probabilities is PD = .03X1+ .02X2 - .05X3+ error, where X1 is the borrower's debt/equity ratio, X2is the volatility of borrower earnings, and X3= 0.10 is the borrower’s profit ratio. For a particular loan applicant, X1= 0.75, X2= 0.25, and X3= 0.10. Required: What is the projected probability of default for the borrower? What is the projected probability of repayment if the debt/equity ratio is 2.5?
Show the  monthly return of the company and  S&P 500 in the same graph.  What is  your  interruption interpretation  of  the  change  of  return  of  the  company  comparing  with the  market index?   Calculate  the  monthly  standard  deviation  and  return  for  both  the  company  and  S&P 500.  What  is your  interruption  of  the  risk  and  return  of  the  company  comparing  with the  market index?   S&P 500 last 6 months :       Date Open High Low Close* Adj. close** Volume       01 Apr 2022 4,540.32 4,593.45 4,381.34 4,392.59 4,392.59 37,024,560,000       01 Mar 2022 4,363.14 4,637.30 4,157.87 4,530.41 4,530.41 100,978,320,000       01 Feb 2022 4,519.57 4,595.31 4,114.65 4,373.94 4,373.94 73,167,790,000       01 Jan 2022 4,778.14 4,818.62 4,222.62 4,515.55 4,515.55 73,279,440,000       01 Dec 2021 4,602.82 4,808.93 4,495.12 4,766.18 4,766.18 68,699,830,000…
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