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MindTap Business Statistics for Ragsdale's Spreadsheet Modeling & Decision Analysis, 8th Edition, [Instant Access], 2 terms (12 months)
8th Edition
ISBN: 9781337274876
Author: Cliff Ragsdale
Publisher: Cengage Learning US
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Chapter 3, Problem 8QP
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To develop: A spreadsheet model for the problem and solve it using solver.
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MindTap Business Statistics for Ragsdale's Spreadsheet Modeling & Decision Analysis, 8th Edition, [Instant Access], 2 terms (12 months)
Ch. 3 - Prob. 1QPCh. 3 - Prob. 2QPCh. 3 - Prob. 3QPCh. 3 - Prob. 4QPCh. 3 - Prob. 5QPCh. 3 - Prob. 6QPCh. 3 - Refer to question 19 at the end of Chapter 2....Ch. 3 - Prob. 8QPCh. 3 - Prob. 9QPCh. 3 - Prob. 10QP
Ch. 3 - Prob. 11QPCh. 3 - Prob. 12QPCh. 3 - Prob. 13QPCh. 3 - Prob. 14QPCh. 3 - Prob. 15QPCh. 3 - Prob. 16QPCh. 3 - Prob. 17QPCh. 3 - Tuckered Outfitters plans to market a custom brand...Ch. 3 - Prob. 19QPCh. 3 - Prob. 20QPCh. 3 - Prob. 21QPCh. 3 - Prob. 22QPCh. 3 - Prob. 23QPCh. 3 - Prob. 24QPCh. 3 - Prob. 25QPCh. 3 - Prob. 26QPCh. 3 - A manufacturer of prefabricated homes has decided...Ch. 3 - Prob. 28QPCh. 3 - Prob. 29QPCh. 3 - Prob. 30QPCh. 3 - Prob. 31QPCh. 3 - Prob. 32QPCh. 3 - Prob. 33QPCh. 3 - Prob. 34QPCh. 3 - Prob. 35QPCh. 3 - Prob. 36QPCh. 3 - Prob. 37QPCh. 3 - Prob. 38QPCh. 3 - Prob. 39QPCh. 3 - Prob. 40QPCh. 3 - Prob. 41QPCh. 3 - Prob. 42QPCh. 3 - Prob. 43QPCh. 3 - Prob. 44QPCh. 3 - A natural gas trading company wants to develop an...Ch. 3 - Prob. 46QPCh. 3 - The CFO for Eagle Beach Wear and Gift Shop is in...Ch. 3 - Prob. 48QPCh. 3 - Prob. 1.1CCh. 3 - Prob. 1.2CCh. 3 - Prob. 1.3CCh. 3 - Prob. 1.4CCh. 3 - Prob. 2.1CCh. 3 - Prob. 2.2CCh. 3 - Prob. 2.3CCh. 3 - Prob. 2.4CCh. 3 - Prob. 2.5CCh. 3 - Kelly Jones is a financial analyst for Wolverine...
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- Suppose you begin year 1 with 5000. At the beginning of each year, you put half of your money under a mattress and invest the other half in Whitewater stock. During each year, there is a 40% chance that the Whitewater stock will double, and there is a 60% chance that you will lose half of your investment. To illustrate, if the stock doubles during the first year, you will have 3750 under the mattress and 3750 invested in Whitewater during year 2. You want to estimate your annual return over a 30-year period. If you end with F dollars, your annual return is (F/5000)1/30 1. For example, if you end with 100,000, your annual return is 201/30 1 = 0.105, or 10.5%. Run 1000 replications of an appropriate simulation. Based on the results, you can be 95% certain that your annual return will be between which two values?arrow_forwardYou want to take out a 450,000 loan on a 20-year mortgage with end-of-month payments. The annual rate of interest is 3%. Twenty years from now, you will need to make a 50,000 ending balloon payment. Because you expect your income to increase, you want to structure the loan so at the beginning of each year, your monthly payments increase by 2%. a. Determine the amount of each years monthly payment. You should use a lookup table to look up each years monthly payment and to look up the year based on the month (e.g., month 13 is year 2, etc.). b. Suppose payment each month is to be the same, and there is no balloon payment. Show that the monthly payment you can calculate from your spreadsheet matches the value given by the Excel PMT function PMT(0.03/12,240, 450000,0,0).arrow_forwardThe annual demand for Prizdol, a prescription drug manufactured and marketed by the NuFeel Company, is normally distributed with mean 50,000 and standard deviation 12,000. Assume that demand during each of the next 10 years is an independent random number from this distribution. NuFeel needs to determine how large a Prizdol plant to build to maximize its expected profit over the next 10 years. If the company builds a plant that can produce x units of Prizdol per year, it will cost 16 for each of these x units. NuFeel will produce only the amount demanded each year, and each unit of Prizdol produced will sell for 3.70. Each unit of Prizdol produced incurs a variable production cost of 0.20. It costs 0.40 per year to operate a unit of capacity. a. Among the capacity levels of 30,000, 35,000, 40,000, 45,000, 50,000, 55,000, and 60,000 units per year, which level maximizes expected profit? Use simulation to answer this question. b. Using the capacity from your answer to part a, NuFeel can be 95% certain that actual profit for the 10-year period will be between what two values?arrow_forward
- An automobile manufacturer is considering whether to introduce a new model called the Racer. The profitability of the Racer depends on the following factors: The fixed cost of developing the Racer is triangularly distributed with parameters 3, 4, and 5, all in billions. Year 1 sales are normally distributed with mean 200,000 and standard deviation 50,000. Year 2 sales are normally distributed with mean equal to actual year 1 sales and standard deviation 50,000. Year 3 sales are normally distributed with mean equal to actual year 2 sales and standard deviation 50,000. The selling price in year 1 is 25,000. The year 2 selling price will be 1.05[year 1 price + 50 (% diff1)] where % diff1 is the number of percentage points by which actual year 1 sales differ from expected year 1 sales. The 1.05 factor accounts for inflation. For example, if the year 1 sales figure is 180,000, which is 10 percentage points below the expected year 1 sales, then the year 2 price will be 1.05[25,000 + 50( 10)] = 25,725. Similarly, the year 3 price will be 1.05[year 2 price + 50(% diff2)] where % diff2 is the percentage by which actual year 2 sales differ from expected year 2 sales. The variable cost in year 1 is triangularly distributed with parameters 10,000, 12,000, and 15,000, and it is assumed to increase by 5% each year. Your goal is to estimate the NPV of the new car during its first three years. Assume that the company is able to produce exactly as many cars as it can sell. Also, assume that cash flows are discounted at 10%. Simulate 1000 trials to estimate the mean and standard deviation of the NPV for the first three years of sales. 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Jim and Catherine agree that the ePlayerX, which will feature a sleeker design and more memory, is necessary to compete successfully with the big boys, but they are also worried that the ePlayerX could cannibalize sales of their existing productsand that it could even detract from their bottom line. They must eventually decide how much to spend to develop and manufacture the ePlayerX and how aggressively to market it. Depending on these decisions, they must forecast demand for the ePlayerX, as well as sales for their existing products. They also realize that Apple. Samsung, and the other big players are not standing still. These competitors could introduce their own new products, which could have very negative effects on demand for the ePlayerX. The expected timeline for the ePlayerX is that development will take no more than a year to complete and that the product will be introduced in the market a year from now. Jim and Catherine are aware that there are lots of decisions to make and lots of uncertainties involved, but they need to start somewhere. To this end. Jim and Catherine have decided to base their decisions on a planning horizon of four years, including the development year. They realize that the personal handheld device market is very fluid, with updates to existing products occurring almost continuously. However, they believe they can include such considerations into their cost, revenue, and demand estimates, and that a four-year planning horizon makes sense. In addition, they have identified the following problem parameters. (In this first pass, all distinctions are binary: low-end or high-end, small-effect or large-effect, and so on.) In the absence of cannibalization, the sales of existing eTech products are expected to produce year I net revenues of 10 million, and the forecast of the annual increase in net revenues is 2%. The ePIayerX will be developed as either a low-end or a high-end product, with corresponding fixed development costs (1.5 million or 2.5 million), variable manufacturing costs ( 100 or 200). and selling prices (150 or 300). The fixed development cost is incurred now, at the beginning of year I, and the variable cost and selling price are assumed to remain constant throughout the planning horizon. The new product will be marketed either mildly aggressively or very aggressively, with corresponding costs. The costs of a mildly aggressive marketing campaign are 1.5 million in year 1 and 0.5 million annually in years 2 to 4. For a very aggressive campaign, these costs increase to 3.5 million and 1.5 million, respectively. (These marketing costs are not part of the variable cost mentioned in the previous bullet; they are separate.) Depending on whether the ePlayerX is a low-end or high-end produce the level of the ePlayerXs cannibalization rate of existing eTech products will be either low (10%) or high (20%). Each cannibalization rate affects only sales of existing products in years 2 to 4, not year I sales. For example, if the cannibalization rate is 10%, then sales of existing products in each of years 2 to 4 will be 10% below their projected values without cannibalization. A base case forecast of demand for the ePlayerX is that in its first year on the market, year 2, demand will be for 100,000 units, and then demand will increase by 5% annually in years 3 and 4. This base forecast is based on a low-end version of the ePlayerX and mildly aggressive marketing. It will be adjusted for a high-end will product, aggressive marketing, and competitor behavior. The adjustments with no competing product appear in Table 2.3. The adjustments with a competing product appear in Table 2.4. Each adjustment is to demand for the ePlayerX in each of years 2 to 4. For example, if the adjustment is 10%, then demand in each of years 2 to 4 will be 10% lower than it would have been in the base case. Demand and units sold are the samethat is, eTech will produce exactly what its customers demand so that no inventory or backorders will occur. Table 2.3 Demand Adjustments When No Competing Product Is Introduced Table 2.4 Demand Adjustments When a Competing Product Is Introduced Because Jim and Catherine are approaching the day when they will be sharing their plans with other company executives, they have asked you to prepare an Excel spreadsheet model that will answer the many what-if questions they expect to be asked. Specifically, they have asked you to do the following: You should enter all of the given data in an inputs section with clear labeling and appropriate number formatting. If you believe that any explanations are required, you can enter them in text boxes or cell comments. In this section and in the rest of the model, all monetary values (other than the variable cost and the selling price) should be expressed in millions of dollars, and all demands for the ePlayerX should be expressed in thousands of units. You should have a scenario section that contains a 0/1 variable for each of the binary options discussed here. For example, one of these should be 0 if the low-end product is chosen and it should be 1 if the high-end product is chosen. You should have a parameters section that contains the values of the various parameters listed in the case, depending on the values of the 0/1 variables in the previous bullet For example, the fixed development cost will be 1.5 million or 2.5 million depending on whether the 0/1 variable in the previous bullet is 0 or 1, and this can be calculated with a simple IF formula. You can decide how to implement the IF logic for the various parameters. You should have a cash flows section that calculates the annual cash flows for the four-year period. These cash flows include the net revenues from existing products, the marketing costs for ePlayerX, and the net revenues for sales of ePlayerX (To calculate these latter values, it will help to have a row for annual units sold of ePlayerX.) The cash flows should also include depreciation on the fixed development cost, calculated on a straight-line four-year basis (that is. 25% of the cost in each of the four years). Then, these annual revenues/costs should be summed for each year to get net cash flow before taxes, taxes should be calculated using a 32% tax rate, and taxes should be subtracted and depreciation should be added back in to get net cash flows after taxes. (The point is that depreciation is first subtracted, because it is not taxed, but then it is added back in after taxes have been calculated.) You should calculate the company's NPV for the four-year horizon using a discount rate of 10%. You can assume that the fixed development cost is incurred now. so that it is not discounted, and that all other costs and revenues are incurred at the ends of the respective years. You should accompany all of this with a line chart with three series: annual net revenues from existing products; annual marketing costs for ePlayerX; and annual net revenues from sales of ePlayerX. Once all of this is completed. Jim and Catherine will have a powerful tool for presentation purposes. By adjusting the 0/1 scenario variables, their audience will be able to see immediately, both numerically and graphically, the financial consequences of various scenarios.arrow_forward
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