EBK PRODUCTION AND OPERATIONS ANALYSIS
7th Edition
ISBN: 8220102480681
Author: Olsen
Publisher: WAVELAND
expand_more
expand_more
format_list_bulleted
Concept explainers
Question
Chapter 5, Problem 49AP
Summary Introduction
Interpretation:Number of handbags demanded are to be calculated.
Concept Introduction: Laplace distribution is a continuous probability distribution in which two independent exponential functions are evaluated. These exponential functions are independent of each other with different parameters
Expert Solution & Answer
Want to see the full answer?
Check out a sample textbook solutionStudents have asked these similar questions
cosmetics manufacturer's marketing department has developed a linear trend equation that can be used to predict annual sales of its popular Hand&Foot Cream.
F t = 80 + 15t
where
Ft = Annual sales (000 bottles)
t is in years
Are annual sales increasing or decreasing? By how much?
3. Quarterly sales of a car dealer exhibit an almost constant mean over time, but sales fluctuate
depending on the quarter of the year (exhibits seasonality).
Quarter
Q1 - Spring
Q2 - Summer
Q3 - Fall
Q4 - Winter
Mean
Year 1
32
74
53
22
45.25
Year 2
30
71
63
15
44.75
Year 3
35
83
45
19
45.5
(a) Using three years' worth of quarterly data that is provided, develop a set of seasonal factors that
could be used to forecast car sales
(b) Forecast car sales in each of the four quarters (Q1-Q4) of the following year (Year 4), using these
seasonal factors.
DFC Company has recorded the past years sales for the company:
Year(t)
Sales(x)
(in Million Pesos)
2011(1)
2012(2)
2013(3)
2014(4)
2015(5)
2016(6)
2017(7)
2018(8)
2019(9)
2020(10)
219
224
268
272
253
284
254
278
282
298
Use the naïve model. Compute for MAE and MSE
Use a three period moving average. Compute for the MAE and MSE
Use the simple exponential smoothing to make a forecasting table. Compute the MAE and MSE of the forecasts. Alpha = 0.1
Use the least square method to make the forecasting table. Compute the MAE and MSE
*** Use excel or r programming
Chapter 5 Solutions
EBK PRODUCTION AND OPERATIONS ANALYSIS
Ch. 5.2 - Prob. 1PCh. 5.2 - Prob. 2PCh. 5.2 - Prob. 4PCh. 5.3 - Prob. 7PCh. 5.3 - Prob. 9PCh. 5.3 - Prob. 12PCh. 5.5 - Prob. 16PCh. 5.5 - Prob. 18PCh. 5.6 - Prob. 21PCh. 5.7 - Prob. 24P
Ch. 5.7 - Prob. 25PCh. 5.7 - Prob. 26PCh. 5.7 - Prob. 27PCh. 5 - Prob. 28APCh. 5 - Prob. 31APCh. 5 - Prob. 32APCh. 5 - Prob. 33APCh. 5 - Prob. 37APCh. 5 - Prob. 38APCh. 5 - Prob. 40APCh. 5 - Prob. 41APCh. 5 - Prob. 43APCh. 5 - Prob. 44APCh. 5 - Prob. 45APCh. 5 - Prob. 46APCh. 5 - Prob. 47APCh. 5 - Prob. 48APCh. 5 - Prob. 49APCh. 5 - Prob. 50APCh. 5 - Prob. 51AP
Knowledge Booster
Learn more about
Need a deep-dive on the concept behind this application? Look no further. Learn more about this topic, operations-management and related others by exploring similar questions and additional content below.Similar questions
- Use @RISK to analyze the sweatshirt situation in Problem 14 of the previous section. Do this for the discrete distributions given in the problem. Then do it for normal distributions. For the normal case, assume that the regular demand is normally distributed with mean 9800 and standard deviation 1300 and that the demand at the reduced price is normally distributed with mean 3800 and standard deviation 1400.arrow_forwardThe following table shows the three-period moving average and five-period moving average for monthly sales of Budget Furniture's during 2019. Moving averages of Budget Furniture's Time period Months Sales Three-period moving average (rounded off to Five-period moving average four decimals) R'millions 1 Jan 7 5.0000 6.2 February 5.6667 6.6 March 5 7.0000 B 4 April 8.3333 8.2 May 7 9.3333 8.4 June 8.3333 9.6 7 July 12 8.6667 9.6 August 4 A 9.2 September 10 10.6667 10 October 13 10.6667 11 November 9 12 December 10 The seasonal index for the month of February in 2019 is: LOarrow_forwardDevelop Linear Regression Model. Forecast sales for 8, 14 and 17 years of education. Sales(1000s) Years of Education 24 10 18 9 20 11 22 6 26 13 23 16 21 18arrow_forward
- D. Given the following data on the number of CitChat brand prepaid card (in units) that has been sold in the first eight months in a telecommunication shop in Jitra, Kedah: Bulan/Month Iualan/sales 785 2 600 3 578 4 590 5 770 6 805 7 710 8 900 Compute a 3-months moving average for the period from month 5 until 8 (of the next year).arrow_forwardQuarterly sales of a local department store over a 4-year period are given below: Quarters 2016 Q1 Sales (in millions) 500 Quarters 2018 Q1 Sales (in millions) 560 2016 Q2 490 580 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2019 Q1 2019 Q2 2016 Q3 570 630 2016 Q4 2017 Q1 2017 Q2 750 720 480 540 500 590 2017 Q3 580 2019 Q3 620 2017 Q4 740 2019 Q4 790 The data shows sign of seasonality. By computing seasonal indices for each quarter, forecast the sales for each quarter in year 2020, given that the estimated sales in 2020 isarrow_forwardA newly operated company producing household items would want to forecast its sales volume for the next month. It has been in operation for ten (10) months now. For the past ten (10) months, forecast and sales data for its top selling Item A are as follow: Time Period Forecasted Value Actual Sales (Quantity) 10th month 405 345 9th month 400 380 8th month 410 400 7th month 370 375 6th month 330 360 5th month 320 325 4th month 320 315 3rd month 305 300 2nd month 290 295 1st month 300 280 The operations manager observes the fluctuations on the sales quantity over the 10-month period that the company is in operation. To forecast for the 11th month, the team decided to evaluate options on what forecasting method to use. Their options are: To use the Moving Average Method using the sales data for the past 10 months, To use the Exponential Smoothing Average assigning a smoothing constant of .6 and To use the Trend-adjusted Exponential Smoothing assigning smoothing constants α =…arrow_forward
- Following data on the demand for sewing machines manufactured by Taylor and Son Co. have been compiled for the past 10 years. Year 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 78 1976 1977 1978 1979 99 1980 106 Demand 58 65 73 76 87 88 93 in (1000 units) Please estimate the value of demand for next 3 years using trend analysis.arrow_forwardAssume that the forecasted demand for 2019 is 15. Use the following data set and exponential smoothing with a = 0.4 and determine the forecasted demand for 2021. Year Demand 2019 16 2020 20 2021 18arrow_forwardUse the below formula to calculate the CLV for the following: A manager of a cable company wants to determine if it is strategic to acquire the Brett family, by estimating their household-level CLV. The manager estimates that it will cost the company $80 (A) to get the Bretts’ to switch, and the Bretts’ will generate $150 profit each year (M), with a $30 annual marketing cost to retain them (C). The estimated retention rate (r) is 65%, and the current discount rate is 5%.(d) i) CLV= ii) Based on your calculation, are the Brett’s profitable to the cable company?arrow_forward
- 1. Favors Distribution Company purchases small imported trinkets in bulk, packages them, and sells them to retail stores. They are conducting an inventory control study of all their items. The following data for the year 2006 are for one such item, which is not seasonal. [10 Points] Month Sales Jan Feb 18 19 Mar Apr May Jun 17 21 20 19 Jul 20 Aug 23 a. Use trend projection to estimate the relationship between time and sales (state the trend line equation in this problem). b. Calculate forecasts for February 2007, April 2007, and February 2008arrow_forwardThe following table gives the number of pints of type A blood used at Damascus Hospital in the past 6 weeks: a) The forecasted demand for the week of October 12 using a 3-week moving average = Week Of August 31 September 7 September 14 September 21 September 28 October 5 pints (round your response to two decimal places). Pints Used 345 389 408 381 371 374arrow_forwardHow can we find the Leaving Basic Variable?arrow_forward
arrow_back_ios
SEE MORE QUESTIONS
arrow_forward_ios
Recommended textbooks for you
- Practical Management ScienceOperations ManagementISBN:9781337406659Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.Publisher:Cengage,
Practical Management Science
Operations Management
ISBN:9781337406659
Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher:Cengage,
Single Exponential Smoothing & Weighted Moving Average Time Series Forecasting; Author: Matt Macarty;https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IjETktmL4Kg;License: Standard YouTube License, CC-BY
Introduction to Forecasting - with Examples; Author: Dr. Bharatendra Rai;https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=98K7AG32qv8;License: Standard Youtube License