Concept explainers
a)
To determine: The sensitivity to the problem in terms of the probability estimate of 0.35.
Introduction: Decision making is the procedure of selecting choices by identifying a decision, obtaining information and evaluating alternative resolutions. Always, step-by-step decision making process can help to make more deliberate, and thoughtful decisions in the organization.
b)
To determine: The sensitivity to the problem in terms of the probability estimate of 0.45.
Introduction: Decision-making is the process that helps to make decision. It is the process of choosing a best alternative by evaluating many alternatives.
c)
To determine: The range of payoff for renew reject for the selected alternative.
Introduction: Decision-making is the process that helps to make decision. It is the process of choosing a best alternative by evaluating many alternatives.
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Chapter 5 Solutions
Operations Management
- In November 2023, a certified investment property appraiser was hired to appraise the value of a 72,000 square foot Safeway anchored neighborhood shopping center in Fremont, California that was last sold in 2014 to a foreign investment company based in the Cayman Islands for $26 million. The November 2023 appraised value represents the: a. Actual market value of that property b. Actual purchase price of that property c. Actual replacement cost of that property d. Actual opinion of value by that appraiserarrow_forward4. "Family Man," a construction company, is considering whether to bid on a contract for a new housing complex. The cost of preparing a bid USD 200,000. “Family Man" has a 0.8 probability of winning the contract, if it submits the bid. If "Family Man" wins the bid, it has to pay USD 2000,000 to be a project partner of the project. As per the usual practice, "Family Man" will then consider consulting a market research firm "Marquess" to conduct a market survey to forecast the demand of housing complex before beginning the construction. "Marquess" charges a fee of USD 150,000. Now, the demand scenario can be either "High demand" or "Low demand." "Family Man" gets a revenue of USD 5000,000 and USD 3000,000 in case of "High demand" and "Low demand" scenario, respectively. On the other hand, instead of construction, "Family Man" has a provision of selling its project rights to another project partner construction company at the price USD 3500,000. As per the historical data, "Marquess"…arrow_forwardH2.arrow_forward
- Option 2: Raise prices by 50%. If this occurs, there is a 75% chance that an Entrepreneur will set up in competition this year. The board’s estimate of its annual profit in this situation would be as follows: 2A: With new competitor 2B: Without new competitor Probability Profit (Sh.) Probability Profit (Sh.) 0.25 150,000 0.5 200,000 0.5 120,000 0.3 150,000 0.25 80,000 0.2 100,000 Option 3: Expand the car park quickly at a cost of Sh. 50,000 keeping prices theSame. The profits are then estimated to be like 2B above, except that the probabilities would be 0.6, 0.3 and 0.1 respectively. Required: Draw a decision tree for the above problem, including all the relevant data. Using expected values analyze the decision tree and recommend the best option to the owners of the car park.arrow_forwardCapital Budgeting with Taxes (Non-MACRS Depreciation); Sensitivity Analysis GravinaCompany is planning to spend $6,000 for a machine that it will depreciate on a straight-line basisover 10 years with no salvage value. The machine will generate additional cash revenues of $1,200 ayear. Gravina will incur no additional costs except for depreciation. Its income tax rate is 35%. Thepresent value annuity factor for 15%, 10 years (from Appendix C, Table 2) is 5.019.Required1. What is the payback period of the proposed investment (in years, and rounded to 1 decimal place) underthe assumption that the cash inflows occur evenly throughout the year?2. What is the accounting (book) rate of return (ARR) based on the initial investment outlay? Round youranswer to 1 decimal place (e.g., 13.571% = 13.6%).arrow_forwardPls help ASAP on botharrow_forward
- Management Decision Systems (MDS) is a consulting company that specializes in the development of decision support systems. MDS has a four-person team working on a current project with a s company to set up a system that scrapes data from a collection of websites and then automatically generates a report for management on a daily basis. Time (Weeks) Activity A B с с Description Report generation Web scraping Testing Immediate Predecessor This answer has not been graded yet. A, B Optimistic 2 5 1 Most Probable (a) Construct the project network. (Submit a file with a maximum size of 1 MB.) Choose File No file chosen 9 10 1 O The probability estimate from (c) based on both paths is more accurate. O The probability estimates from (b) and (c) are equal. Pessimistic (d) Should you use the estimate in (b) or (c)? O The probability estimate from (b) based on the critical path is more accurate. 13 12 (b) Based solely on the critical path, estimate the probability that the project will be…arrow_forwardMNGT 21 – Management Science Decision Tree 1. A manager has to decide whether to prepare a bid or not. It costs P5,000 to prepare the bid. If the bid is submitted, the probability that the contract will be awarded is 50%. If the company is awarded the contract, it may earn an income of P100,000 if it succeeds, or pay a fine of P8,000 if it fails. The probability of success is estimated to be 80%. Should the manager prepare a bid? Mr. del Mundo, the president of RFC Corporation is faced with deciding whether to purchase a patent to develop a new product or not. If the company purchases the patent, it should develop the product. The selling price of the patent if P50,000. There are two ways of developing the product: the Modern Method and the Traditional Method. It costs P20,000 to use the Modern Method, and P15,000 for the traditional Method. The proby, of success in the Modern Method is 60%, while it is 70% for the Traditional Method. If the product is successfully developed, it will…arrow_forwardThe sensitivity of two parameters (P and n) for one project is evaluated by graphing the AW values versus percentage variation from the most likelyestimates. The curve for n has a slope very close to zero, while the P curve has a significant negative slope. One good conclusion from the graph is that:a. both PW and AW values are more sensitive to variations in P than n.b. the project should be rejected, since AW values vary with P and n.c. a better estimate of P needs to be made.d. the ROR is equally sensitive for both parameters.arrow_forward
- DECISION THEORY. A man has to decide wheter to resign or not from his present position and apply for a job offering him 2x his present salary, that is if he passes the qualifying test. At present, he receives $3000 monthly compensation. The offer from another company has a condition that he will not be allowed to take the qualifying test, he will immediately be taken in and have a monthly pay of $6000. If he fails, he will remain jobless, he feels that his chance of passing the test is 35%. Suppose he decides to base his decision on expected value, should he resign from his post or not?arrow_forwardYour manager is quite concerned about the recent deterioration of a section of the roof on a building that houses your firm's computer operations. According to your assistant there are three options which merit consideration: A, B, and C. Moreover, there are three possible future conditions that must be included in the analysis: I, which has a probability of occurrence of .5; II, which has a probability of .3; and III, which has a probability of .2. If condition I materializes, A will cost $12,000, B will cost $20,000, and C will cost $16,000. If condition II materializes, the costs will be $15,000 for A, $18,000 for B, and $14,000 for C. If condition III materializes, the costs will be $10,000 for A, $15,000 for B, and $19,000 for C. (A) Draw a decision tree for this problem (B) Using expected monetary value, which alternative should be chosen? Explain your Answer.arrow_forward2. Consider a bidding problem similar to that presented in class. You can still either bid high or low on either the dam or highway project, or you can not prepare a bid. However, the probabilities and outcomes are given in Tables 2.1 and 2.2. Table 2.1 Probabilities and profits of bid results Project Probability Conditional Profit [$] Bid Type of Result Upon Bid of Bid of Result High Win 0.20 Table 2.2 Lose 0.80 -50,000 Dam Low Win 0.40 Table 2.2 Lose 0.60 -50,000 High Win 0.10 Table 2.2 Lose 0.90 -100,000 Highway Low Win 0.20 Table 2.2 Lose 0.80 -100,000 Table 2.2 Outcome and probabilities, conditional on winning the bid Probability Possible of Outcome Project Bid Profit [$], if Bid is Type of Bid Upon Outcome Won High 600,000 0.60 High -100,000 0.40 Dam Low 300,000 0.70 Low -200,000 0.30 1,200,000 0.60 High High -200,000 0.40 Highway Low 600,000 0.70 Low -300,000 0.30 a(i) Consider that you want to maximize the Expected Value (EV) of profit. Draw the decision tree and "work the…arrow_forward
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