Concept explainers
Fudge factors An oil company executive is considering investing $10 million in one or both of two wells: Well 1 is expected to produce oil worth $3 million a year for 10 years; well 2 is expected to produce $2 million for 15 years. These are real (inflation-adjusted) cash flows.
The beta for producing wells is .9. The market risk premium is 8%, the nominal risk-free interest rate is 6%, and expected inflation is 4%.
The two wells are intended to develop a previously discovered oil field. Unfortunately there is still a 20% chance of a dry hole in each case. A dry hole means zero cash flows and a complete loss of the $10 million investment.
Ignore taxes and make further assumptions as necessary.
- a. What is the correct real discount rate for cash flows from developed wells?
- b. The oil company executive proposes to add 20 percentage points to the real discount rate to offset the risk of a dry hole. Calculate the
NPV of each well with this adjusted discount rate. - c. What do you say the NPYs of the two wells are?
- d. Is there any single fudge factor that could be added to the discount rate for developed wells that would yield the correct NPY for both wells? Explain.
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Principles of Corporate Finance (Mcgraw-hill/Irwin Series in Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate)
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