Minor Project

Sales for the past 12 months at computer success are given here: January 3,000      July 6,300 february 3,400      August 7,200 March 3,700         Sept 6,400 April 4,100            Oct 4,600 May 4,700            Nov 4,200 June 5,700           December 3,900 a. Use a 3-month moving average to forecast the sales for the months May through December b. Use a 4-month moving average to forecast the sales for the months May through December C. Compare the performance of the two methods by using the mean absolute deviation as the performance criterion. Which method would you recommend? d. Compare the performance of the two methods by using the mean absolute percent error as the performance criterion. Which method would you recommend? e. Compare the performance of the two methods by using the mean squared error as the performance criterion. Which method would you recommend?

show the complete solution for a, b and c

1. A forecaster must decide on the value of this factor before he can use the simple moving average model. *   a. Actual demand for each period b. Averaging period c. Exponential smoothing constant d.Weights   2. A forecaster must decide on the value of this factor before he can use the exponential smoothing model. *   a. Actual demand for each period b. Averaging period c. Exponential smoothing constant d. Weights   3. A forecaster must calculate this value to assess the accuracy of a time series forecasting model. * a. Averaging period b. Correlation coefficient c. Exponential smoothing constant d. Mean absolute deviation

What are some of the common Business Statistics used in Excell for Hospitality Management?

Does operations with different forecasting conditions have different types of decisions? What are these? What are they?

Movieflix, an online movie streaming service that offers a wide variety of award-winning TV shows, movies, animes, and documentaries, would like to determine the mathematical trend of memberships in order to project future needs. Year                              2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021Membership (000s)   17      16      16     21     20      20     23      25      24    1. Provide an example of qualitative forecasting and explain the shortcomings.

Use quantitative methods for the data shown below: Period 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Observation 24 34 36 37 41 44 45  i) Naïve method:  ii) Three period moving average  iii) Three period Weighted moving average iiii)Four-period Moving Average iiiii)Four-period Weighted Moving Average b. Plot the original time series and comment on the appropriateness of a linear trend.

Based on these tables, Can you calculate the Profit and Revenue and explain how you got these calculations. Also please explain how these tables are important when finding profit and revenue.

Naïve method versus three period Moving Average The number of major plumbing repair jobs performed by Augur’s Plumbing Service in each of the last six months is listed below.   Month                                Jobs      October                                92 November                            94 December                            98 January                                 95 February                               99 March                                  104        Use the ‘textbook’ naïve method to forecast April jobs (Ft+1 = Xt + (Xt – Xt-1). Use the three- period moving average to forecast jobs in April Based upon the MAD (mean absolute deviation), determine whether the three-period moving average or textbook naïve method is more accurate, based upon forecasts for January through March.

Data on 10 mid-level managers in insurance industry is given below, in the box. Employees refer to number of employees supervised and salary refer to annual salary in 1000$. Employees 28 31 38 38 43 47 48 49 53 56Salary 99 102 136 127 157 121 173 197 200 176 a. Create the regression equation.b. Forecast the salary of a manager who supervises 90 employees by using the regression equation you created.

Compute the seasonal relatives for this data using the SA method.  Please show the work, not just the answer.  See the screen shot for details.

4.29 The number of disk drives (in millions) made at a plant in Taiwan during the past 5 years follows: YEAR DISK DRIVES 1 140 160 3 190 4 200 5 210 a) Forecast the number of disk drives to be made next year, using linear regression. b) Compute the mean squared error (MSE) when using linear regression. c) Compute the mean absolute percent error (MAPE). PX

Movieflix, an online movie streaming service that offers a wide variety of award-winning TV shows, movies, animes, and documentaries, would like to determine the mathematical trend of memberships in order to project future needs. Year                              2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021Membership (000s)    17     16      16     21      20     20      23     25      24   1. Forecast 2023 membership.

What are the key considerations when modeling time-dependent data, such as temporal databases or event sourcing systems?