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1.
Suppose that satisfies the independence axiom and there are
three lotteries available: p, q and r. Write down one implication
of p>q.
1.Indeed, the independence axiom in Expected Utility Theory implies that the
preference ordering between lotteries is preserved even when they are mixed
or compounded with a third lottery. Given p ≻ q and then we get αp + (1-α)r
≻ αq + (1-α)x. This result means that if an individual prefers lottery p over q,
they will still prefer a mixture of lottery p and r over a mixture of lottery q and
the risk-free payoff x, regardless of the value of α.
2.
Consider the following four assets whose payoffs are as follows,
with 0<X<Y, Py<Px, YPy>XPx and a (0,1). Asset A: X with probability
Px, with probability 1-Px; Asset B: Y with probability Py, 0 with
probability 1-Py; Asset C: X with probability aPx, 0 with probability 1-
aPx; Asset D: Y with probability aPy, 0 with probability 1-aPy. An
agent chooses A over B. When given the choice between C and D, the
same agent chooses D over C. Could this individual’s preference be
consistent with vNM expected utility theory?
2.Such preferences are not consistent with vNM expected utility theory. They
violate the independence axiom. Consider the set of payoffs {0, X, Y}. Asset C
can be a compound lottery that with probability a returns asset A and with
probability (1-a) returns 0.
3.
You are a basketball player. There are two time periods t ∈ {1, 2}.
When you take a shot at time t one of two events can be realized:
hitt and misst. Let P(hitt) be the unconditional probability that you
make a basket in period t and let P(hitt , hits) be the joint probability
if making baskets in periods t and s. Suppose P(hit1)=0.5 and P(hit1,
hit2)=0.3: Based on the stated probabilities above, do you have a hot
hand? Why or why not?
3.P{Hit2∩Hit1} =P{Hit2|Hit1} *P{Hit1}; Since P {Hit2, Hit1} =0.3, P{Hit1}
=0.5, get P{Hit2|Hit1} =0.6. By using Bayes’ rule, P{Hit2∩Miss1} =P{Hit2|
Miss1} *P{Miss1}; P {Hit2, Miss1} =P{Hit2}-P {Hit2, Hit1} =0.5-0.3=0.2;
P{Hit2|Miss1} =P {Hit2, Miss1}/P{Miss1} =0.2/0.5=0.4. Since P{Hit2|
Hit1}>P{Hit2|Miss1}, it is likely to have a hot hand.
4.Risk aversion. Gamble A: A certain payoff of 500; Gamble B: win
1000(50%) or 0(50%). Jaime prefers gamble A over B. Show that
Jaime is risk-averse regarding the attitude towards risk.
4.
U[E(W)]>E[U(W)]. Jaime prefers A over B, therefore, U(500)
=0.5*U(1000)+0.5*U(0)
5.Describe a self-control problem that an economic agent might face.
Sophisticated agents are aware of future self-control problems. How
does this awareness result in behaviors that are different from those
of naïve agent who are ignorant of future self-control problems?
5.
Gym attendance. Individuals typically believe that going to the gym is a
good thing but may fail to go regularly due to failures of self-control.
Sophisticated agents can only have long-term gym contracts when they are
aware of an increased likelihood of going.
6.
Iyengar and Kamenica (2010) study simplicity-seeking using
evidence from allocation to funds in 401(k) plans. What is their
null hypothesis for the relationship between the proportion
that individuals invest in equities and the number of funds
offered in their 401(k) plan? What do they find? Is this
evidence of simplicity-seeking by 401(k) investors?
6.Their null hypothesis is not relationship between equity share and the
number of funds offered in a 401(k) plan. They found a negative relationship
between equity share and the number of funds offered. This is not simplicity-
seeking. They find that allocations and the number of funds is related: more
funds lead to lower allocation to equity and higher allocations to bond and
money market funds. However, they don’t provide any reasons why funds are
simpler than equity funds, they cannot conclude their evidence supports
simplicity-seeking.
7.
Benartzi and Thaler (2001) study naïve diversification in
retirement plans. Under their null hypothesis, what should be the
relationship between the number of equity funds in a retirement plan
and the average proportion of assets allocated to equity? What do
they find? Are their findings consistent with naïve diversification?
7.Under their null hypothesis, there should be no relationship between the
number of equity funds offered in a plan and the average proportion of assets
allocated to equity in the same plan. They reject the null and their finding
suggests that investors may practice naïve diversification.
8.
A mutual fund manager claims that the superior performance of
her fund is due to in-depth research of firms and economic
fundamentals. Does she believe that markets are efficient (in which
form of market efficiency)? Does she believe that markets are strong-
form efficient? Why or why not?
8. Market efficiency can be classified into three forms: Weak-form efficiency,
Semi-strong form efficiency, Strong-form efficiency. She may believe that
markets are weak-form efficient, so that historical price information in
impounded in price. She doesn’t believe that markets are semi-strong form
efficient. If there’s value to research, then prices cannot contain all public
information. She certainly doesn’t believe in strong-form efficiency. If she did,
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Related Questions
Suppose Jessica has two choices: receive $12000 and 30 utils or take a gamble that has a 55% chance of a $20000 and 45 utils, and a 45% chance of a $0 payoff and zero utility.
Assuming Jessica is a utility maximizer, what will she likely choose?
a) Jessica will not take the gamble
b) Jessica will take the gamble
c) It cannot be determined
d) Jessica is indifferent
arrow_forward
1b
arrow_forward
Utility functions incorporate a decision maker’s attitude towards risk. Let’s assume that the following utilities were assessed for Danica Wary.
x
u(x)
-$2,000
0
-$500
62
$0
75
$400
80
$5,000
100
Would a risk neutral decision maker be willing to take the following deal: 30% chance of winning $5,000, 40% chance of winning $400 and a 30% chance of losing $2,000?
Using the utilities given in the table above, determine whether Danica would be willing to take the deal described in part a?
Is Danica risk averse or is she a risk taker? What is her risk premium for this deal?
arrow_forward
A Bank has foreclosed on a home mortgage and is selling the house at auction. There are two bidders for the house, Zeke and Heidi. The bank does not know the willingness to pay of these three bidders for the house, but on the basis of its previous experience, the bank believes that each of these bidders has a probability of 1/3 of valuing it at $800,000, a probability of 1/3 of valuing at $600,000, and a probability of 1/3 of valuing it at $300,000. The bank believes that these probabilities are independent among buyers. If the bank sells the house by means of a second- bidder, sealed-bid auction, what will be the bank’s expected revenue from the sale? The answer is 455, 556. Please show the steps in details thank you!
arrow_forward
To go from Location 1 to Location 2, you can either take a car or take transit. Your utility function is:
U= -1Xminutes -5Xdollars +0.13Xcar (i.e. 0.13 is the car constant)
Car= 15 minutes and $8
Transit= 40 minutes and $4
What is your probability of taking transit given the conditions above?
What is your probability of taking transit if the number of buses on the route were doubled, meaning
the headways are halved?
Remember to include units.
arrow_forward
Suppose your classmate Yakov offers you a wager: He will choose a playing card at random from a deck and pay you $1,000 if it is red, but you have
to pay him $1,000 if it is black. Assume your wealth is currently $3,000. The graph shown below plots your utility as a function of wealth. Use the
graph to answer the questions that follow.
UTILITY (Units of utility)
100
90
8
8
70
288
50
40
30
20
10
0
WEALTH (Thousands of dollars)
arrow_forward
Consider the two Nash equilibria found above. Is any one of them a Perfect Bayesian Equilibrium (PBE)? Explain. In particular, consider each NE and argue why they are or are not part of a PBE. [Note: A complete description of PBE must specify beliefs as a part of description of the equilibrium.]
arrow_forward
Here is my question!
arrow_forward
You are attempting to establish the utility that your boss assigns to a payoff of $1,100. You have established that the utility for a payoff
of $0 is zero and the utility for a payoff of $10,000 is one. Your boss has just told you that they would be indifferent between a payoff
of $1,100 and a lottery which has a payoff of $10,000 where the probability of losing is 0.4. What is your boss' utility for $1,100?
(Round your answer to 1 decimal place.)
Utility of $1,100
arrow_forward
Suppose that there is a risky bet that promises a 50-50 chance of winning or losing $1000 for someone with a starting income of
$59000. The certainty equivalence of this risky bet refers to the certain income that provides the same utility as does this risky
bet (in expectation). Calculate the certainty equivalence of this risky bet respectively for the following utility functions:
a. U (D)= √I
1
b. U (D)=-I
c. U (I) = In(1)
Round all answers to 3 decimal places.
arrow_forward
a) Consider a set of monetary outcomes X = {x1,... , Xk} where the outcomes are arranged
in increasing order x, g(x;) for all i = 1,... K,
j=i
j=i
with at least one of the inequalities being strict. Explain the intuition of first-order stochas-
tic dominance. Show that, for expected utility preferences with vNM utility u that is strictly
increasing in money, if p first-order stochastically dominates q then p > q.
arrow_forward
Suppose Jimi has reference dependent preferences over guitars and money as in Tversky and Kahneman (1991). His utility
functions are given below.
Gains
Gains
400
-2
-2
2 Guitars
2$
Losses
Losses
i-600
-2
What is the least amount of money Jimi is willing to accept to sell one of his guitars? (just enter a dollar amount, i.e., "10o0", not
"$1000"
arrow_forward
Show all steps, please and thank you.
arrow_forward
a) Consider a set of monetary outcomes X
{x1,... , xK} where the outcomes are arranged
in increasing order x E q(x;)
Σα) for all i = 1 . Κ ,
for all i = 1, ... K,
%3D
j=i
j=i
with at least one of the inequalities being strict. Explain the intuition of first-order stochas-
tic dominance. Show that, for expected utility preferences with vNM utility u that is strictly
increasing in money, if p first-order stochastically dominates q then p > q.
b) Consider the following decision problems:
Decision 1: Choose between
A. A sure gain of £240.
B. A 25% chance to gain £1000, and a 75% chance to gain nothing.
Decision 2: Choose between
C. A sure loss of £750.
D. A 75% chance to lose £1000, and a 25% chance to lose nothing.
The lotteries in each decision are independent. When people are offered both decisions,
and it is explained they will receive both of their choices, it has been found that most people
choose A and D, so receive A + D. Discuss why such preferences might occur. Compare
this pair…
arrow_forward
1) Expected Utility formulation was initially proposed as a solution to the St.
Petersburg paradox (or, its predecessor). However, does it really solve all such
paradoxes? More specific, consider an individual whose "little Bernoulli" utility
functions is, a la Cremer, given by u(x) = x^. Construct a lottery similar to St.
Petersburg lottery in that your lottlery, too, gives a finite prize with probability one,
but not only the expected value, but also the expected utility of your lottery
(calculated using the u(.) above) is not finite. Discuss how that violates EU as a
solution for the St. Petersburg paradox.
arrow_forward
Consider two individuals, Dani and Tom.
Dani's utility function is given by U(c)=In(c),
where c is the amount of consumption in a
given period. Tom's utility is U(c)=c^2
a) In two separate graphs, draw Dani and
Tom's utility function (U in y-axis, c in x-axis).
b) Both Dani and Tom can purchase a lottery
that pays 5 with 75% probability, and 15 with
25% probability. Calculate and mark on the
graphs the utility evaluated at the expected
level of consumption for the lottery. Then
calculate and mark on the graphs the
expected utility for Dani and Tom.
c) How do utilities at the expected level of
consumption compare to the expected utility?
What explains the difference between Dani
and Tom? What implication does this
difference have for their risk preferences?
arrow_forward
How would this exercise be solved step by step?
arrow_forward
What would be the solution?
arrow_forward
Behavioral evidence suggests that the likelihood of both fifirms choosing high prices can be increased if
their executives can
(A) engage in informal communications and signal their intention to keep high prices;
(B) play mixed strategies;
(C) use the K-level thinking;
(D) none of the above.
arrow_forward
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- Suppose Jessica has two choices: receive $12000 and 30 utils or take a gamble that has a 55% chance of a $20000 and 45 utils, and a 45% chance of a $0 payoff and zero utility. Assuming Jessica is a utility maximizer, what will she likely choose? a) Jessica will not take the gamble b) Jessica will take the gamble c) It cannot be determined d) Jessica is indifferentarrow_forward1barrow_forwardUtility functions incorporate a decision maker’s attitude towards risk. Let’s assume that the following utilities were assessed for Danica Wary. x u(x) -$2,000 0 -$500 62 $0 75 $400 80 $5,000 100 Would a risk neutral decision maker be willing to take the following deal: 30% chance of winning $5,000, 40% chance of winning $400 and a 30% chance of losing $2,000? Using the utilities given in the table above, determine whether Danica would be willing to take the deal described in part a? Is Danica risk averse or is she a risk taker? What is her risk premium for this deal?arrow_forward
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