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Economics

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Jan 9, 2024

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1. Suppose that satisfies the independence axiom and there are three lotteries available: p, q and r. Write down one implication of p>q. 1.Indeed, the independence axiom in Expected Utility Theory implies that the preference ordering between lotteries is preserved even when they are mixed or compounded with a third lottery. Given p ≻ q and then we get αp + (1-α)r ≻ αq + (1-α)x. This result means that if an individual prefers lottery p over q, they will still prefer a mixture of lottery p and r over a mixture of lottery q and the risk-free payoff x, regardless of the value of α. 2. Consider the following four assets whose payoffs are as follows, with 0<X<Y, Py<Px, YPy>XPx and a (0,1). Asset A: X with probability Px, with probability 1-Px; Asset B: Y with probability Py, 0 with probability 1-Py; Asset C: X with probability aPx, 0 with probability 1- aPx; Asset D: Y with probability aPy, 0 with probability 1-aPy. An agent chooses A over B. When given the choice between C and D, the same agent chooses D over C. Could this individual’s preference be consistent with vNM expected utility theory? 2.Such preferences are not consistent with vNM expected utility theory. They violate the independence axiom. Consider the set of payoffs {0, X, Y}. Asset C can be a compound lottery that with probability a returns asset A and with probability (1-a) returns 0. 3. You are a basketball player. There are two time periods t ∈ {1, 2}. When you take a shot at time t one of two events can be realized: hitt and misst. Let P(hitt) be the unconditional probability that you make a basket in period t and let P(hitt , hits) be the joint probability if making baskets in periods t and s. Suppose P(hit1)=0.5 and P(hit1, hit2)=0.3: Based on the stated probabilities above, do you have a hot hand? Why or why not? 3.P{Hit2∩Hit1} =P{Hit2|Hit1} *P{Hit1}; Since P {Hit2, Hit1} =0.3, P{Hit1} =0.5, get P{Hit2|Hit1} =0.6. By using Bayes’ rule, P{Hit2∩Miss1} =P{Hit2| Miss1} *P{Miss1}; P {Hit2, Miss1} =P{Hit2}-P {Hit2, Hit1} =0.5-0.3=0.2; P{Hit2|Miss1} =P {Hit2, Miss1}/P{Miss1} =0.2/0.5=0.4. Since P{Hit2| Hit1}>P{Hit2|Miss1}, it is likely to have a hot hand. 4.Risk aversion. Gamble A: A certain payoff of 500; Gamble B: win 1000(50%) or 0(50%). Jaime prefers gamble A over B. Show that Jaime is risk-averse regarding the attitude towards risk. 4. U[E(W)]>E[U(W)]. Jaime prefers A over B, therefore, U(500) =0.5*U(1000)+0.5*U(0) 5.Describe a self-control problem that an economic agent might face.
Sophisticated agents are aware of future self-control problems. How does this awareness result in behaviors that are different from those of naïve agent who are ignorant of future self-control problems? 5. Gym attendance. Individuals typically believe that going to the gym is a good thing but may fail to go regularly due to failures of self-control. Sophisticated agents can only have long-term gym contracts when they are aware of an increased likelihood of going. 6. Iyengar and Kamenica (2010) study simplicity-seeking using evidence from allocation to funds in 401(k) plans. What is their null hypothesis for the relationship between the proportion that individuals invest in equities and the number of funds offered in their 401(k) plan? What do they find? Is this evidence of simplicity-seeking by 401(k) investors? 6.Their null hypothesis is not relationship between equity share and the number of funds offered in a 401(k) plan. They found a negative relationship between equity share and the number of funds offered. This is not simplicity- seeking. They find that allocations and the number of funds is related: more funds lead to lower allocation to equity and higher allocations to bond and money market funds. However, they don’t provide any reasons why funds are simpler than equity funds, they cannot conclude their evidence supports simplicity-seeking. 7. Benartzi and Thaler (2001) study naïve diversification in retirement plans. Under their null hypothesis, what should be the relationship between the number of equity funds in a retirement plan and the average proportion of assets allocated to equity? What do they find? Are their findings consistent with naïve diversification? 7.Under their null hypothesis, there should be no relationship between the number of equity funds offered in a plan and the average proportion of assets allocated to equity in the same plan. They reject the null and their finding suggests that investors may practice naïve diversification. 8. A mutual fund manager claims that the superior performance of her fund is due to in-depth research of firms and economic fundamentals. Does she believe that markets are efficient (in which form of market efficiency)? Does she believe that markets are strong- form efficient? Why or why not? 8. Market efficiency can be classified into three forms: Weak-form efficiency, Semi-strong form efficiency, Strong-form efficiency. She may believe that markets are weak-form efficient, so that historical price information in impounded in price. She doesn’t believe that markets are semi-strong form efficient. If there’s value to research, then prices cannot contain all public information. She certainly doesn’t believe in strong-form efficiency. If she did,
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