Lab11 Crim320

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Simon Fraser University *

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Course

320

Subject

Economics

Date

Jan 9, 2024

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pdf

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4

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Question 1: Research question: Does unemployment rate predict the residential burglary rate? Question 2: Null hypothesis: The unemployment rate does not predict the residential burglary rate. Alternative hypothesis: The unemployment rate predict the residential burglary rate. Question 3: Unemployment rate is the independent variable and residential burglary rate is the dependent variable. This is because it is more likely that unemployment rate will be influencing the residential burglary rate and we might believe that the increase of unemployed people who needs money will put them in the situation to obtain money in an illegal manner. Additionally, social disorganization theory suggest that areas with high unemployment have greater
di culty establishing social organization and the collective behaviour to repel crime. So it is reasonable for us to assume unemployment rate will increase the residential burglary rate. Question 4: Considering the coe cient of determination, is this a good model? Use the e ff ect size ratios we used for correlation analyses in the previous lab (2 marks) The value of R-squared is 0.000. It measures how good the regression is fitted to the data. Since the R-square value is 0, it shows a weak linear relationship, and the model does not fits to the data. With a such low R-square, we are not able explaining a lot of variation in Y (residential burglary rate) with variation X (unemployment rate) . Hence, it is not a good model. The coe cient of correlation is 0.01. The e ff ect size of this study is 0.01, since it is between 0.00-0.35, it is characterized as low magnitude e ff ect. Question 5: The regression of coe cient: Bunemprate = -0.044, so the relationship between the unemployment rate and the residential burglary rate is negative and low magnitude. With a p- value of 0.92, which is bigger than 0.05, it is not statistically significant and we failed to reject the null hypothesis. The independent variable is not a significant predictor of the dependent variable. In the coe cient table, the constant is 29.852, it is the y intercept which is the value of y when x is zero The slop(b)=-0.044, it is negative, indicating the direction of the correlation that is when the unemployment rate increase, the residential burglary rate decrease. Question 6: y=28.852-0.044x Question 7: Bunemprat = -0.044 The b coe cient is negative and low magnitude, so the relationship between the unemployment rate and the residential burglary rate is negative and low magnitud. So as X in creases, Y decrease. The b coe cient has a p-value of 0.92, shows that the independent variable is not statistically significant. Thus, we failed to reject our null hypothesis. As a result, the unemployment rate does not predict the residential burglary rate. -There is only one independent variable, so the p-value in ANOVA analysis is the same as the regression coe cient Question 8: Mischief rate and government assistance: Q1&Q2: Research question: Does government assistance predict mischief rate? Null hypothesis: Government assistance does not predict mischief rate.
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