Class 16 Ratio Analysis Problem Set 3 Kroger and Sprouts Solution

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Cross-Sectional Financial Statement Analysis – Kroger and Sprouts Farmers Market The Kroger Company is a major U.S. grocery retailer, second only to Wal-Mart in grocery revenue. Kroger’s supermarkets totaled 2,719 by the end of fiscal 2022, most of which included pharmacies, under the Kroger, Harris Teeter, Ralph’s and Dillon’s banners. More than 1,500 of these stores also have fuel centers. Kroger provides the following breakdown of its revenue mix for the past three years: Revenue Mix 2022 2021 2020 Non-perishable 50% 51% 54% Perishable 24% 25% 25% Fuel 13% 10% 7% Pharmacy 9% 9% 9% Other (including convenience stores) 4 % 5 % 5 % Total 100% 100% 100% Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc., is a recent entrant in this competitive industry with a different strategy, as it focuses on produce which is, literally, at the center of each store and typically occupies 20% of the store’s selling space. Sprouts also differs from other retail grocery stores in its decision to keep most shelving at waist-height so that customers can see the entire store as they enter. With 386 supermarkets as of the end of fiscal 2022, located primarily in the west and southwest regions, Sprouts is much smaller than Kroger, but it is growing quickly as it is expanding into Florida and the southeast. Sprouts provides the following breakdown of its revenue mix for the past three years: Revenue Mix 2022 2021 2020 Perishables 58% 58% 57% Non-perishables 42% 42% 43% Total 100% 100% 100% Required: a. Using the Ratio Analysis Problem Set 3 spreadsheet, calculate the ratios below the financial statements for both companies for the most recent year. See spreadsheet solution. b. Identify two differences between the two companies’ qualitative characteristics that are visible in two specific ratios. Explain the connection between the characteristic and the ratio. Differences include: Starting with the DuPont model ratios as an overview: In all three years, Sprouts achieved a higher ROE due to its much higher ROA which is caused by its much higher profit margin, despite its lower asset turnover. Also, Kroger’s much higher leverage indicates that its use of debt is a significant contributor to its ROE. Sprouts’ much higher profit margin is driven by its higher gross margin – likely reflecting its much higher proportion of perishables as well as Kroger’s higher proportion of fuel; it may also reflect different strategic choices regarding location (rural and suburban vs urban and suburban), prominence of customer service, and more subtle differences in product mix. Kroger’s lower SG&A/revenue – likely reflecting its MUCH larger size ($148 billion vs $6 billion) and economies of scale. May also reflect Sprouts’ decision to provide greater customer service. Kroger’s higher PP&E turnover (which helps to explain its higher asset turnover) – again likely reflecting economies of scale, as well as differences in the age of the company and its assets. Kroger’s PP&E is nearly 50% depreciated, while Sprouts’ PP&E is only 34% depreciated. As long as the store is clean (!), its age should not affect the revenue earned. The difference may also reflect Kroger’s more efficient use of space, given Sprouts’ strategy of lower shelving in much of the store.
Sprouts’ shorter days inventory on hand reflects its higher proportion of perishables, although its trend upward may be the result of its expansion. Kroger’s longer days payables outstanding reflects both its power with its suppliers (given its size) and the nature of its suppliers, as Sprouts purchases much more produce from local farmers who cannot wait to be paid. Kroger’s much higher interest-bearing debt / assets (and much higher leverage ratio) reflect its long-standing decision to use debt as a primary form of financing. As a much newer company, Sprouts faces considerable operating risk and cannot bear as much financial risk. Kroger’s much lower interest coverage ratio reflects its decision to borrow a lot. As interest rates rise, this ratio could decrease more, and might even approach the 3.0 yellow flag threshold. Note that the two companies are essentially the same in their DSO ratios, as they are both still grocery retail companies that do not extend their own credit to customers, and both have relatively short DIO and DPO ratios. c. Which company has performed more effectively? Cite specific ratios to support your answer. The case for Sprouts: Higher gross margin – so much higher that it compensates for the higher SG&A/Revenue and gives Sprouts the advantage on operating margin. As people continue to care about the quality and nutrition of their food (without paying premium prices), the strategy of emphasizing fresh produce is appealing. Less financial risk with its much lower debt ratios and much higher interest coverage. The case for Kroger: SO much bigger – economies of scale on both SG&A and the use of its PP&E and significant power with its suppliers which may be important in the face of inflation. Less operating risk with its much broader geographic reach and product range – so that it can manage its higher debt levels (which increase the return to shareholders). Recent trends: Even if you like Sprouts’ strategy, note that in 2021 – a good year for most grocery retailers – its revenue actually decreased by 6% (even as it increased its number of stores). The company explains that 2020 was an exceptionally high revenue year due to the onset of the pandemic, and that in 2021 some of its competitors opened stores nearby and forced selling prices down. (I know of one town where Whole Foods did exactly that.) Revenue rebounded in 2022. As mentioned above, Kroger’s times interest earned ratio is fairly low, and an increase in interest rates could push it lower. However, Kroger has carried this high level of debt for over 30 years without any financial distress. The company is enormous and steady. Overall – Sprouts is riskier in its youth and its distinctive strategy, but may work out to generate a higher return….for shareholders who can bear the risk!
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