Decision-Making Models Essay

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Decision-Making Models

General assumptions create the foundation of a person's reasoning. Imperfections with a supposition can create the opportunity for a skewed perspective in a person's reasoning process (Paul & Elder, 2002). The process of choosing one course of action over another is commonly known as decision making. Consciously or unconsciously, people make decisions on a daily basis founded on one or more of the various decision-making models (Sullivan, n.d.). This paper examines how I apply various decision-making models in the workplace to generate accurate workload estimations in my career.

The Qualitative Choice Theory also known as analogous reasoning uses past experience to help an individual make decisions. A
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I normally make use of the parametric model when estimating a large project. I look at one piece of the project and create an estimate of the level of effort needed to complete the piece, and multiply the estimate by the number of pieces that comprise the project. When I bid the creation of the initial website for the aforementioned client, I determined there would be only two Web pages requiring Active Server Pages (ASP) programming due to database interaction; the remaining 20 pages could be coded using static Hypertext Markup Language (HTML) and JavaScript. Drawing on parametric model I estimated the time needed to code a single HTML page and multiplied that estimate by 20. I created individual time estimates for the 2 ASP pages due to the unique nature of the pages. The total estimate delivered was approximately 30 hours.

As of late, my supervisor has encouraged me to begin using the PERT technique to provide a more accurate time estimate. The formula used to calculate the PERT is: ((realistic * 4) + pessimistic + optimistic) / 6. Using the 30-hour estimate issued to the aforementioned client and accounting for every situation that could create difficulties, I created a pessimistic estimate of 47 hours. Assuming flawless execution with no complications, I have created an optimistic estimate of 25 hours. The PERT formula calculates the estimated level of effort at 32 hours.

The Monte Carlo

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