2. According to the classical definition of probability a. All the events are equally likely. b. The probability is based on hunches. c. Divide the number of successes by the number of failures. d. One outcome is exactly twice the other.
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__ 2. According to the classical definition of probability
a. All the events are equally likely.
b. The probability is based on hunches.
c. Divide the number of successes by the number of failures.
d. One outcome is exactly twice the other.
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- Probability is the likelihood or chance of an event occurring. Discuss its significance in real life. Develop a hypothesis about any real life occurring phenomena and calculate probability by using hypothetical values.Suppose that Winnie the Pooh and Eeyore have the same value function: v(x) = x1/2 for gains and v(x) = -2(|x|)1/2 for losses. The two are also facing the same choice, between (S) $1 for sure and (G) a gamble with a 25% chance of winning $4 and a 75% chance of winning nothing. Winnie the Pooh and Eeyore both subjectively weight probabilities correctly. Winnie the Pooh codes all outcomes as gains; that is, he takes as his reference point winning nothing. For Pooh: What is the value of S? What is the value of G? Which would he choose? Eeyore codes all outcomes as losses; that is, he takes as his reference point winning $4. For Eeyore: What is the value of S? What is the value of G? Which would he choose?Fare F ($/trip) and travel time T (hr/trip) for Bus and Rails are given Bus: F= 40, T = 3 Rail: F = 56, T=2.5 We have a utility function u = -0.005 F -0.1 t * Use the logit model to find the probability of choosing bus * What change in rain rare would achieve the probability of choosing rail to be 55%? * What value use time is implied by the utility function? Start to think about the utility of one-hour a. it will be #% b. #$ c. $20$/hr
- Question 2 A potential criminal enjoys a gain of g > 0 from committing an illegal act. If the potential criminal does not commit the act, he gets a gain equal to g = 0. The expected punishment upon conviction is p (e.g. number of years in prison), but there is the possibility of legal error. In particular, if the criminal commits the act, there is a probability r that he will not be punished, and if the criminal did not commit the act, there is a probability q that he will be punished regardless. a. Derive the net gain (i.e. gain minus expected punishment) for the criminal from not committing the illegal act. b. Use your answer in a. to derive the condition for the criminal to commit the illegal act. Show and explain every step of your calculations. c. Lawmakers decided to further increase the standard of proof for a criminal conviction. How will this change a ect the criminal’s decision to commit the illegal act in your answer in b.?ASAP Consider an individual for whom utility is U = ln(I) There are two states of the world (G,B): Outcome G = 2000 with probability .4 Outcome B = 1000 with probability .6 W1 = 2000 L = 1000 π = .6 Option = invest $50 to lower π to .2 An insurance company is willing to offer a contract in which the individual pays a premium and gets full compensation for the loss (1000) in the bad state. a) With no insurance but the option of investing the $50, what is the utility of the individual? b) What is the first-best outcome for utility of the individual, insurance premium, and profits of the insurance company?Wanda works as a waitress and consequently has the opportunity to earn cash tips that are not reported by her employer to the Internal Revenue Service. Her tip income is rather variable. In a good year (G), she earns a high income, so her tax liability to the IRS is $5000. In a bad year (B), she earns a low income, and her tax liability to the IRS is $0. The IRS knows that the probability of her having a good year is 0.6, and the probability of her having a bad year is 0.4, but it doesn’t know for sure which outcome has resulted for her this tax year. In this game, first Wanda decides how much income to report to the IRS. If she reports high income (H), she pays the IRS $5000. If she reports low income (L), she pays the IRS $0. Then the IRS has to decide whether to audit Wanda. If she reports high income, they do not audit, because they automatically know they’re already receiving the tax payment Wanda owes. If she reports low income, then the IRS can either audit (A) or not audit…
- Consider Bob's decision problem: Sunny Cloudy Rainy Beach 2 3 2 Park 3 3 2 Mall -1 1 x Suppose the probability of Sunny is 0.25, the probability of Cloudy is 0.25, and the probability of Rainy is 0.5. What is the smallest value of x for which Mall is an expected utility maximiser? Round your answer to one decimal place (e.g. 0.5).Government provided social insurance is most beneficial in the cases where the probability of adverse events is _____ to calculate and the costs of the adverse events are _____. a.hard/low b.easy/high c.easy/low d.hard/highFirst Fiddler's Bank has foreclosed on a home mortgage and is selling the house at auction. There are three bidders for the house, Ernie, Teresa, and Marilyn. First Fiddler's does not know the willingness to pay of these three bidders for the house, but on the basis of its previous experience, the bank believes that each of these bidders has a probability of 1/3 of valuing it at $600,000, a probability of 1/3 of valuing at $500,000, and a probability of 1/3 of valuing it at $200,000. First Fiddler's believes that these probabilities are in de pendent among buyers. If First Fiddler's sells the house by means of a second- bidder, sealed- bid auction (Vickrey auction), what will be the bank's expected revenue from the sale? (Choose the closest option.) The closest option is 448, 148. Please explain in details thank you.
- a. Consider the Oakdale Furniture Company described in the given problem. Under what circumstances might the major portion of the usage of the glue be predictable?b. If the demand were predictable, would you want to use a probability law todescribe it? Under what circumstances might the use of a probability model of demand be justified even if the demand could be predicted exactly?An individual is off ered a choice of either $50 or a lottery which may result in $0 or $100, each with equal probability 1/2. If the individual has a utility function u(w) = w, which one would they choose? If the individual has a utility function u(w) =sqr(w)?In the final round of a TV game show, contestants have a chance to increase their current winnings of $1 million dollars to $2 million dollars. If they are wrong, their prize is decreased to $500,000. The contestant thinks his guess will be right 50% of the time. Should he play? What is the lowest probability of a correct guess that would make playing profitable?