A group is planning to back the production of a new musical at Lusaka Playhouse. It would cost K100 000 to stage for the first month. If well received by critics, it will be kept on for a further six months earning a profit of K350 000. If critics dislike it, it will close at the end of the first month. There is a 50: 50 chance of a favourable review. Should the group invest in the musical?

A group is planning to back the production of a new musical at Lusaka Playhouse. It would cost K100 000 to stage for the first month. If well received by critics, it will be kept on for a further six months earning a profit of K350 000. If critics dislike it, it will close at the end of the first month. There is a 50: 50 chance of a favourable review. Should the group invest in the musical?

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Description: A group is planning to back the production of a new musical atLusaka Playhouse. It would cost K100 000 to stage for the firstmonth. If well received by critics, it will be kept on for a further sixmonths earning a profit of K350 000. If critics disli

Practical Management Science

6th Edition

ISBN:9781337406659

Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Chapter9: Decision Making Under Uncertainty

Section9.3: Single-stage Decision Problems

Problem 5P

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A group is planning to back the production of a new musical at Lusaka Playhouse. It would cost K100 000 to stage for the first month. If well received by critics, it will be kept on for a further six months earning a profit of K350 000. If critics dislike it, it will close at the end of the first month. There is a 50: 50 chance of a favourable review. Should the group invest in the musical? A business wants to decide whether to launch a new product. If the product is launched there are two elements of uncertainty: 0.70 probability that sales that sales will be 8000 units per month and 0.30 that sales will be 5000 units per month. If sales are 8000 units per month, there is a 0.5 probability that the contribution per unit will be K2 and a 05 probability that it will be negative –K1. With sales of 5000 units there is a 0.6 probability that the contribution per unit will be K3 and a 04 probability that it will be K3 and a 0.4 probability that it will be K1. Advise…
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