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Based on the picture below, explain each briefly like you are teaching this to your students or give a summary explanation about how scenario planning works.  Implications Early Warning Signals

Based on the picture below, explain each briefly like you are teaching this to your students or give a summary explanation about how scenario planning works.  Implications Early Warning Signals

Practical Management Science
Practical Management Science
6th Edition
ISBN:9781337406659
Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Chapter9: Decision Making Under Uncertainty
Section9.2: Elements Of Decision Analysis
Problem 2P
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Based on the picture below, explain each briefly like you are teaching this to your students or give a summary explanation about how scenario planning works. 

  1. Implications
  2. Early Warning Signals

 

A SCENARIO FRAMEWORK is a 2x2 matrix made up of the two critical uncertainties with high vs. low spectrums. The two axes create four different scenarios to be addressed, such as high regulatory environment/low brand image and low regulatory environment/low brand image. 53 SCENARIOS are based on the four quadrants and represent plausible visions of the potential future. There are no "right" or "wrong" scenarios. Instead, they are viable outcomes meant to force participants to think about factors that could change the future of the company. 6 NARRATIVES are written descriptions or stories about each scenario. They should be logical, consistent with the scenario, and be persuasive to stretch people's thinking. Each narrative should also link the scenario back to the present time and how the world got there. The narrative basically tells the story as if it had already happened. IMPLICATIONS are ways to deal with each of the scenarios. Participants go back to the key focal issue to identify the company's strengths, weaknesses, and options to address gaps in capabilities for the different scenarios. EARLY WARNING SIGNALS are leading O indicators suggesting which scenario(s) is (are) most likely. Good early warning indicators help companies assess their readiness and make course
Transcribed Image Text:A SCENARIO FRAMEWORK is a 2x2 matrix made up of the two critical uncertainties with high vs. low spectrums. The two axes create four different scenarios to be addressed, such as high regulatory environment/low brand image and low regulatory environment/low brand image. 53 SCENARIOS are based on the four quadrants and represent plausible visions of the potential future. There are no "right" or "wrong" scenarios. Instead, they are viable outcomes meant to force participants to think about factors that could change the future of the company. 6 NARRATIVES are written descriptions or stories about each scenario. They should be logical, consistent with the scenario, and be persuasive to stretch people's thinking. Each narrative should also link the scenario back to the present time and how the world got there. The narrative basically tells the story as if it had already happened. IMPLICATIONS are ways to deal with each of the scenarios. Participants go back to the key focal issue to identify the company's strengths, weaknesses, and options to address gaps in capabilities for the different scenarios. EARLY WARNING SIGNALS are leading O indicators suggesting which scenario(s) is (are) most likely. Good early warning indicators help companies assess their readiness and make course
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