Continuation of question.. Based on the picture below, explain each briefly like you are teaching this to your students or give a summary explanation about how scenario planning works. Also, give an example for each. Early Warning Signals Strengths Limitations Role of Management Accountant

Practical Management Science
6th Edition
ISBN:9781337406659
Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Chapter9: Decision Making Under Uncertainty
Section9.2: Elements Of Decision Analysis
Problem 2P
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Continuation of question..

Based on the picture below, explain each briefly like you are teaching this to your students or give a summary explanation about how scenario planning works. Also, give an example for each.

  1. Early Warning Signals
  2. Strengths
  3. Limitations
  4. Role of Management Accountant

 

 

on rankings. Focusing on two could miss other
critical potential forces. There will be differing
opinions about the implications of uncertainties,
sometimes motivated by individuals' incentives
and personal biases. Further, there is usually more
corrections as needed earlier than if they had no
early warning signals.
Strengths: Instead of assuming there is one best
answer to a strategic question, scenario planning
considers different possibilities for different futures. than just one key focal issue. The analysis can
It considers multiple uncertainties simultaneously.
Unlike simulation modeling, it requires subjective
thinking as well as quantitative analysis. It is
especially helpful when: uncertainty is high, there
have been costly surprises in the past, current
strategic thinking is weak, and there seem to be
few opportunities to pursue. Further, identifying
early warning signals is a good practice no matter
which strategic planning tool is used.
Limitations: Scenario planning is based on just
also be difficult to do well. It generally requires a
number of participants from different areas of the
company and can take a long time to complete
the exercise.
Role of the management accountant: As with
other strategic planning tools, management
accountants can lead or facilitate the process.
More specifically, they help identify key focal
issues, driving forces, and early warning indicators.
They can also represent different stakeholders'
views and assess the logic of the narratives. .
two critical uncertainties that are chosen based
Transcribed Image Text:on rankings. Focusing on two could miss other critical potential forces. There will be differing opinions about the implications of uncertainties, sometimes motivated by individuals' incentives and personal biases. Further, there is usually more corrections as needed earlier than if they had no early warning signals. Strengths: Instead of assuming there is one best answer to a strategic question, scenario planning considers different possibilities for different futures. than just one key focal issue. The analysis can It considers multiple uncertainties simultaneously. Unlike simulation modeling, it requires subjective thinking as well as quantitative analysis. It is especially helpful when: uncertainty is high, there have been costly surprises in the past, current strategic thinking is weak, and there seem to be few opportunities to pursue. Further, identifying early warning signals is a good practice no matter which strategic planning tool is used. Limitations: Scenario planning is based on just also be difficult to do well. It generally requires a number of participants from different areas of the company and can take a long time to complete the exercise. Role of the management accountant: As with other strategic planning tools, management accountants can lead or facilitate the process. More specifically, they help identify key focal issues, driving forces, and early warning indicators. They can also represent different stakeholders' views and assess the logic of the narratives. . two critical uncertainties that are chosen based
A SCENARIO FRAMEWORK is a 2x2 matrix
made up of the two critical uncertainties with
high vs. low spectrums. The two axes create four
different scenarios to be addressed, such as high
regulatory environment/low brand image and low
regulatory environment/low brand image.
53
SCENARIOS are based on the four quadrants
and represent plausible visions of the
potential future. There are no "right" or "wrong"
scenarios. Instead, they are viable outcomes meant
to force participants to think about factors that
could change the future of the company.
6 NARRATIVES are written descriptions or stories
about each scenario. They should be logical,
consistent with the scenario, and be persuasive to
stretch people's thinking. Each narrative should also
link the scenario back to the present time and how
the world got there. The narrative basically tells the
story as if it had already happened.
IMPLICATIONS are ways to deal with each of
the scenarios. Participants go back to the key
focal issue to identify the company's strengths,
weaknesses, and options to address gaps in
capabilities for the different scenarios.
EARLY WARNING SIGNALS are leading
O indicators suggesting which scenario(s) is (are)
most likely. Good early warning indicators help
companies assess their readiness and make course
Transcribed Image Text:A SCENARIO FRAMEWORK is a 2x2 matrix made up of the two critical uncertainties with high vs. low spectrums. The two axes create four different scenarios to be addressed, such as high regulatory environment/low brand image and low regulatory environment/low brand image. 53 SCENARIOS are based on the four quadrants and represent plausible visions of the potential future. There are no "right" or "wrong" scenarios. Instead, they are viable outcomes meant to force participants to think about factors that could change the future of the company. 6 NARRATIVES are written descriptions or stories about each scenario. They should be logical, consistent with the scenario, and be persuasive to stretch people's thinking. Each narrative should also link the scenario back to the present time and how the world got there. The narrative basically tells the story as if it had already happened. IMPLICATIONS are ways to deal with each of the scenarios. Participants go back to the key focal issue to identify the company's strengths, weaknesses, and options to address gaps in capabilities for the different scenarios. EARLY WARNING SIGNALS are leading O indicators suggesting which scenario(s) is (are) most likely. Good early warning indicators help companies assess their readiness and make course
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