d. Follow part (b) above but using an alpha of 0.8 this time. Discuss the forecasting errors produced by using the two different exponential smoothing constants.
Q: hat are the benefits of exponential smoothing as a forecasting method over running averages
A: The advantages of the exponential smoothing over moving averages with respect to the forecasting…
Q: Week Passengers 440 11 446 12 451 13 455 14 464 15 996 474 17 476 18 482 a. Explain why an averaging…
A: After observing the data, we can see that there is an upward increasing trend. In case the average…
Q: Series forecasting for Business| The F-test used in testing the significance of a regression model…
A: The correct answer is
Q: Choose the type of forecasting technique (survey, Delphi, averaging, seasonal, naive, trend,…
A: Forecasting techniques are used to predict the future on the basis of past and present data.…
Q: Week Actual Forecast Demand 1 52 48 2 42 46 3 56 52 4 45 47 true or false Assume that the actual…
A: The table shows the calculation of forecast of demand using the simple moving average method with 3…
Q: which of the following is a technique used to determine forecasting accuracy A. Mean Absolute…
A: There is a difference between forecasting and finding the accuracy of the forecast and one might…
Q: Discuss the basic assumptions made when using time series forecasting techniques as opposed to…
A: Several assumptions are made during the Time Series Initial Phase.
Q: a. Construct a time series plot. What type of pattern exists in the data? b. Compare a two-week…
A: Forecasting is predicting in advance the values through various methods like moving averages,…
Q: Sales for the past 6 months at Computer Success are given here. Month Sales $ January 150 February…
A: Given data is
Q: b. Use the least-squares regression method to derive a forecasting equation. c. What is your…
A: Since you have posted a question with multiple sub-parts, we will solve the first three subparts for…
Q: (4-b). Use simple exponential smoothing with α = 0.6 to forecast the tire sales for September…
A: Forecasting sales refers to the prediction of future sales using previous data to estimate the…
Q: Using the data set below, what would be the forecast for period 5 using the exponential smoothing…
A: Forecasting is the process of estimating future sales or demand using previous data and information.…
Q: An analyst must decide between two different forecasting techniques for weekly sales of roller…
A: Given data-
Q: Determine the Running Sum of Forecast Errors (RSFE), the Mean Absolute Deviation, MADt-1,and the…
A: Forecasting is the process of predicting future demand based on previous or historic information and…
Q: Exponential smoothing is used to forecast automobile battery sales. Two value of a are examined, a =…
A: Given information:
Q: d) Calculate the trend projection with regression forecast for periods 7 through 10. The regression…
A: Forecasting is the ability to predict future happenings using different forecasting methods.
Q: 1. Consider the total production (and sales) of ice cream in Canada (in millions of liters) for the…
A: We are authorized to answer three subparts at a time since you have not mentioned which part you are…
Q: What does the word "biassed" mean when applied to a specific forecasting technique?
A: Forecasting is a common and widely used methodology in almost every area of endeavor, including…
Q: Use exponential smoothing with a=0.2 and a=0.5 to generate forecasts for periods 2 through 6. Use…
A:
Q: What does the term biased mean in reference to a particular forecasting technique?
A: The forecasting techniques are used for predicting the future demand and sales of the product. The…
Q: What is an Advantage of the MAPE? a. It can be compared across different forecast items. b. It…
A: The mean absolute percentage blunder, otherwise called mean absolute percentage deviation, is a…
Q: Consider the following time series data: Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 Value 18 13 16 11 17…
A: Hi, We are supposed to answer 3 sub-parts at a time. Since you have not mentioned which subpart to…
Q: Explain the trade-off between responsiveness and stability in a forecasting system that uses…
A: Forecasting is the process of making assumptions of the future on the basis of past and present data…
Q: What method would you choose of forecasting technique, which requires subjective inputs obtained…
A: Forecasting is technique which uses past data in order to predict future trends. It is mainly used…
Q: Accuracy of forecasts. The manager of a large manufacturer of industrial pumps must choose…
A: Given data, Assume that each forecast has an average error of zero. Forecast Month…
Q: An analyst must decide between two different forecasting techniques for weekly sales of roller…
A: Linear trend equation: Ft = 124 + 2.1t. When t = 11, forecast for the 11th period will be 124 + 2.1…
Q: Given the following data, use exponential smoothing with a = 0.1 and a = 0.6 to generate forecasts…
A: Given data a=0.1 and 0.6 as smoothing constants MAD AND MSE which is better Exponential smoothing…
Q: What is the definition of a forecast error?a. The average difference between the forecast and the…
A: Forecasting is a tool that uses historical data as inputs that are predictive in deciding the path…
Q: A manager wants to choose one of two forecasting alternatives: moving average and exponential…
A: Given data is
Q: c. Using simple exponential smoothing, what would your forecast be for this month if the…
A:
Q: All the following are techniques used in quantitative forecasting except. A. Regression analysis B.…
A: Forecasting refers to the approach of making predictions on the basis of present and past…
Q: All forecasts are subject to error. Do you think topmanagers would be concerned about the effectson…
A: Forecasting is described as a tool that will allow the businesses in the budgeting process and also…
Q: Briefly mention the five characteristics of data patterns in time series method of forecasting.
A: Time series forecasting happens when making a scientific projection based on documented or…
Q: Use the data below to solve for the following: Naïve method Unweighted 3 month moving average…
A: Note: - Since we can answer up to three subparts only, we will answer the first three subparts(first…
Q: Air travel on Mountain Airlines for the past 18 weeks was:Week Passengers1 4052 4103 4204 4155 4126…
A: a) The moving average technique would not be appropriate for the given data because the data is…
Q: Your manager is trying to determine what forecasting method to use. Based upon the following…
A: In exponential smoothing, the smoothing constant is used to forecast the demand for the next period…
Q: How would you choose the appropriate number of factors to use in a forecasting model and how would…
A: Note: "Since you have asked multiple questions, we will solve the first question for you. If you…
Q: a. Forecast April through September using a three-month moving average. b. Use simple exponential…
A: Below is the solution:-
Q: sing data in columns A-C create a forecast using the Simple Moving Average method based on 10 weeks…
A: Forecasting means predicting in advance the values of future sales/demand by using different methods…
Q: 13. Two forecasting methods have been used to evaluate the same economic time series. The results…
A: Formula:
Q: ontrast the reactive and proactive approaches to forecasting. Give several examples of types of…
A: Forecasting: Forecasting is a technique and a method which takes into consideration a set of…
Q: Forecasts are generally wrong.a. Why are forecasts generally wrong?b. Explain the term “wrong” as it…
A: Forecasting generally means predicting or estimating something for future events. It is also about…
Q: None of the options are correct.
A: What is Stationarity? A time collection has stationarity if a shift in time doesn’t purpose an…
Q: Discuss the basic assumptions made when using time series forecasting techniques as apposed to…
A: Time series forecasting fundamental assumptions:
Q: Distinguish between Historical Analogy and the Delphi Method forecasting and discuss a business…
A: Historical analogy - Forecast in light of examining the item life cycle and the requests of…
Q: b) Use a 3-week weighted moving average, with weights of.1, .3, and .6, using.6 for the most recent…
A: Forecasting is the process of determining the estimated future demand using historical information…
Q: a. Compare a three-month moving average forecast with an exponential smoothing forecast. Use a =…
A: Below is the solution:-
answer part d only
Step by step
Solved in 2 steps with 5 images
- The file P13_42.xlsx contains monthly data on consumer revolving credit (in millions of dollars) through credit unions. a. Use these data to forecast consumer revolving credit through credit unions for the next 12 months. Do it in two ways. First, fit an exponential trend to the series. Second, use Holts method with optimized smoothing constants. b. Which of these two methods appears to provide the best forecasts? Answer by comparing their MAPE values.The Baker Company wants to develop a budget to predict how overhead costs vary with activity levels. Management is trying to decide whether direct labor hours (DLH) or units produced is the better measure of activity for the firm. Monthly data for the preceding 24 months appear in the file P13_40.xlsx. Use regression analysis to determine which measure, DLH or Units (or both), should be used for the budget. How would the regression equation be used to obtain the budget for the firms overhead costs?Under what conditions might a firm use multiple forecasting methods?
- The file P13_26.xlsx contains the monthly number of airline tickets sold by the CareFree Travel Agency. a. Create a time series chart of the data. Based on what you see, which of the exponential smoothing models do you think will provide the best forecasting model? Why? b. Use simple exponential smoothing to forecast these data, using a smoothing constant of 0.1. c. Repeat part b, but search for the smoothing constant that makes RMSE as small as possible. Does it make much of an improvement over the model in part b?The file P13_29.xlsx contains monthly time series data for total U.S. retail sales of building materials (which includes retail sales of building materials, hardware and garden supply stores, and mobile home dealers). a. Is seasonality present in these data? If so, characterize the seasonality pattern. b. Use Winters method to forecast this series with smoothing constants = = 0.1 and = 0.3. Does the forecast series seem to track the seasonal pattern well? What are your forecasts for the next 12 months?The file P13_02.xlsx contains five years of monthly data on sales (number of units sold) for a particular company. The company suspects that except for random noise, its sales are growing by a constant percentage each month and will continue to do so for at least the near future. a. Explain briefly whether the plot of the series visually supports the companys suspicion. b. By what percentage are sales increasing each month? c. What is the MAPE for the forecast model in part b? In words, what does it measure? Considering its magnitude, does the model seem to be doing a good job? d. In words, how does the model make forecasts for future months? Specifically, given the forecast value for the last month in the data set, what simple arithmetic could you use to obtain forecasts for the next few months?
- The owner of a restaurant in Bloomington, Indiana, has recorded sales data for the past 19 years. He has also recorded data on potentially relevant variables. The data are listed in the file P13_17.xlsx. a. Estimate a simple regression equation involving annual sales (the dependent variable) and the size of the population residing within 10 miles of the restaurant (the explanatory variable). Interpret R-square for this regression. b. Add another explanatory variableannual advertising expendituresto the regression equation in part a. Estimate and interpret this expanded equation. How does the R-square value for this multiple regression equation compare to that of the simple regression equation estimated in part a? Explain any difference between the two R-square values. How can you use the adjusted R-squares for a comparison of the two equations? c. Add one more explanatory variable to the multiple regression equation estimated in part b. In particular, estimate and interpret the coefficients of a multiple regression equation that includes the previous years advertising expenditure. How does the inclusion of this third explanatory variable affect the R-square, compared to the corresponding values for the equation of part b? Explain any changes in this value. What does the adjusted R-square for the new equation tell you?Suppose that a regional express delivery service company wants to estimate the cost of shipping a package (Y) as a function of cargo type, where cargo type includes the following possibilities: fragile, semifragile, and durable. Costs for 15 randomly chosen packages of approximately the same weight and same distance shipped, but of different cargo types, are provided in the file P13_16.xlsx. a. Estimate a regression equation using the given sample data, and interpret the estimated regression coefficients. b. According to the estimated regression equation, which cargo type is the most costly to ship? Which cargo type is the least costly to ship? c. How well does the estimated equation fit the given sample data? How might the fit be improved? d. Given the estimated regression equation, predict the cost of shipping a package with semifragile cargo.The file P13_25.xlsx contains the quarterly numbers of applications for home mortgage loans at a branch office of Northern Central Bank. a. Create a time series chart of the data. Based on what you see, which of the exponential smoothing models do you think will provide the best forecasting model? Why? b. Use simple exponential smoothing to forecast these data, using a smoothing constant of 0.1. c. Repeat part b, but search for the smoothing constant that makes RMSE as small as possible. Does it make much of an improvement over the model in part b? Is it guaranteed to produce better forecasts for the future?
- The file P13_27.xlsx contains yearly data on the proportion of Americans under the age of 18 living below the poverty level. a. Create a time series chart of the data. Based on what you see, which of the exponential smoothing models do you think will provide the best forecasting model? Why? b. Use simple exponential smoothing to forecast these data, using a smoothing constant of 0.1. c. Repeat part b, but search for the smoothing constant that makes RMSE as small as possible. Create a chart of the series with the forecasts superimposed from this optimal smoothing constant. Does it make much of an improvement over the model in part b? d. Write a short report to summarize your results. Considering the chart in part c, would you say the forecasts are good?A small computer chip manufacturer wants to forecast monthly ozperating costs as a function of the number of units produced during a month. The company has collected the 16 months of data in the file P13_34.xlsx. a. Determine an equation that can be used to predict monthly production costs from units produced. Are there any outliers? b. How could the regression line obtained in part a be used to determine whether the company was efficient or inefficient during any particular month?Stock market analysts are continually looking for reliable predictors of stock prices. Consider the problem of modeling the price per share of electric utility stocks (Y). Two variables thought to influence this stock price are return on average equity (X1) and annual dividend rate (X2). The stock price, returns on equity, and dividend rates on a randomly selected day for 16 electric utility stocks are provided in the file P13_15.xlsx. Estimate a multiple regression equation using the given data. Interpret each of the estimated regression coefficients. Also, interpret the standard error of estimate and the R-square value for these data.