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Consider the following time series data: Week 1     2    3   4    5    6 Value 18  13  16  11 17 14 i)Construct a time series plot. What type of pattern exist in the data? ii)Develop a three – week moving average for the time series. Compute MSE and a forecast cast for week 7. Use alpha = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing value for the time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 7. IV)Compare the three -week moving average forecast with exponential smoothing forecast using alpha = 0.2. Which appears to provide the better forecast based on MSE? Explain V)Use trial and error to find a value of the exponential smoothing. Coefficient Alpha that result in a smaller MSE than what you calculated for alpha = 0.2.

Consider the following time series data: Week 1     2    3   4    5    6 Value 18  13  16  11 17 14 i)Construct a time series plot. What type of pattern exist in the data? ii)Develop a three – week moving average for the time series. Compute MSE and a forecast cast for week 7. Use alpha = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing value for the time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 7. IV)Compare the three -week moving average forecast with exponential smoothing forecast using alpha = 0.2. Which appears to provide the better forecast based on MSE? Explain V)Use trial and error to find a value of the exponential smoothing. Coefficient Alpha that result in a smaller MSE than what you calculated for alpha = 0.2.

Practical Management Science
Practical Management Science
6th Edition
ISBN:9781337406659
Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Chapter13: Regression And Forecasting Models
Section13.7: Exponential Smoothing Models
Problem 26P: The file P13_26.xlsx contains the monthly number of airline tickets sold by the CareFree Travel...
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) Consider the following time series data:

Week 1     2    3   4    5    6

Value 18  13  16  11 17 14

i)Construct a time series plot. What type of pattern exist in the data?

ii)Develop a three – week moving average for the time series. Compute MSE and a forecast cast for week 7.

  • Use alpha = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing value for the time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 7.

IV)Compare the three -week moving average forecast with exponential smoothing forecast using alpha = 0.2. Which appears to provide the better forecast based on MSE? Explain

V)Use trial and error to find a value of the exponential smoothing. Coefficient Alpha that result in a smaller MSE than what you calculated for alpha = 0.2.

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