Develop a forecast for the fourth quarter using a three-quarter, weighted moving average. Weight the most recent quarter 0.50, the second most recent 0.25, and the third 0.25. Do the problem using quarters, as opposed to forecasting separate months.
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Here are the data for the past 21 months for actual sales of a particular product:
| LAST YEAR | THIS YEAR | |
| January | 345 | 290 |
| February | 395 | 375 |
| March | 470 | 365 |
| April | 460 | 475 |
| May | 400 | 440 |
| June | 470 | 325 |
| July | 430 | 365 |
| August | 325 | 280 |
| September | 375 | 375 |
| October | 535 | |
| November | 570 | |
| December | 550 | |
Develop a forecast for the fourth quarter using a three-quarter, weighted moving average. Weight the most recent quarter 0.50, the second most recent 0.25, and the third 0.25. Do the problem using quarters, as opposed to
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- Under what conditions might a firm use multiple forecasting methods?The sales of Bluetooth Headphones at the Dubai Electronics Enterprises in Jebel Ali, UAE, over the past 4 months have been 100, 110, 120, and 130 units (with 130 being the most recent sales). Develop a moving-average forecast for next month, using the following techniques: 5B. If next month's sales turn out to be 140 units, forecast the following month's sales (months) using a 4-month moving average.The following monthly sales (in thousands of AUS dollars) of chocolate boxes have been recorded for January, February, March, and April, respectively: 8, 8, 5, 9. Focusing on sales forecast accuracy for the month of April only, explain which of the following forecasting method would you recommend: the Naïve method, the Average method, or the Simple exponential smoothing method (assuming alpha=0.8 and initial state of 7)?
- Following table shows the weekly sales of smart phones at electronic retail store: Week Number of smart phones Sold Forecast using 3 period moving average Error Forecast using exponential smoothing (with α =0.4) Error 1 48 2 41 3 55 4 64 5 62 6 55 7 8 Answer the following questions based on the data given above. Show all your calculations. What is the expected sales for the 7th week based on 3 period moving average. What is the forecast for the 8th week using the same method if the actual sales for week 7 happens to be 70? What is the expected sales for the 7th week based on exponential smoothing with α = 0.3? Which of the above two forecasting method is better based on MSE? Explain why?Following table shows the monthly sales of X-box consoles at a retail store in Kuwait: Answer the following questions based on the data given above. Show your calculations. a. What is the expected sales for the 8th month based on 3 period moving average? b. What is the expected sales for the 8th month based on exponential smoothing with α =0.2? c. Which of the above two forecasting method is better based on MSE?Calculate the forecast for Week 16 using - a 2-period moving average - a 3-period moving average Compute MSE for the two models and compare the results and which model provides the best forecast?
- Prepare a forecast for period 6 using each of the following approaches: Period 1 2 3 4 5 Demand 60 65 55 58 64 A three-period moving average. A weighted average using weights of .50 (most recent), .20 and .30. Exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant of .40.Choose the type of forecasting technique (survey, Delphi, averaging, seasonal, naive, trend, orassociative) that would be most appropriate for predicting:a. Demand for Mother’s Day greeting cards.Assume that you have three forecasting models. For the first, MAD = 2.5, for the second, the MSE =10.5 and for the thirds, MAPE = 2.7. On the basis of this information, which model is best? The second model.The third model.The first model.One cannot conclude.
- Describe when to use of a time series forecasting techniques and what assumption are made?Explain the difference between qualitative and quantitative approaches to forecasting. Describe three (3) qualitative methods used in forecasting. Given the following data of demand for shopping carts at a leading supermarket. Prepare a forecast for period 6 using each of the following approaches: Period 1 2 3 4 5 Demand 60 65 55 58 64 A three-period moving average. A weighted average using weights of .50 (most recent), .20 and .30. Exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant of .40. The manager of a large cement production factory in Road Town, Tortola has to choose between two alternative forecasting techniques. His production staff used both techniques in order to prepare forecasts for a six-month period (See table below). Using MAD as a criterion, which technique has the better performance record? FORECAST MONTH DEMAND TECHNIQUE 1 TECHNIQUE 2 1 492 488 495 2 470 484 482 3 485…Week CheeseburgerSales 1 354 2 344 3 368 4 317 5 361 Based on historical observations over the past five weeks, make a forecast for the next period using the following methods: simple average, three-period moving average, and exponential smoothing with α = 0.4, given a forecast of 326 cheeseburgers for the first week. (Round your answers to 2 decimal places,e.g. 250.25) Simple average: F6 = enter forecast using a simple average 3-Period moving average: F6 = enter forecast using 3-Period moving average Exponential smoothing: F6 = enter forecast using exponential smoothing If actual sales for week 6 turn out to be 365, compare the three forecasts using MAD. Which method performed best?(Calculate your answers using the error only in period 6.) MAD (simple average) = enter forecast using a simple average of MAD MAD (3-period moving average) = enter forecast using 3-period moving average of MAD MAD (exponential smoothing) = enter forecast using exponential…
