The manager of a travel agency has been using a seasonally adjusted forecast to predict demand for packaged tours. The actual and predicted values are as follows:Period, Demand, Predicted1 129 1242 194 2003 156 1504 91 945 85 806 132 1407 126 1288 126 1249 95 10010 149 15011 98 9412 85 8013 137 14014 134 128a. Compute MAD for the fifth period, then update it period by period using exponential smoothing with α = .3.b. Compute a tracking signal for periods 5 through 14 using the initial and updated MADs. If limits of ± 4 are used, what can you conclude?
The manager of a travel agency has been using a seasonally adjusted forecast to predict demand for packaged tours. The actual and predicted values are as follows:Period, Demand, Predicted1 129 1242 194 2003 156 1504 91 945 85 806 132 1407 126 1288 126 1249 95 10010 149 15011 98 9412 85 8013 137 14014 134 128a. Compute MAD for the fifth period, then update it period by period using exponential smoothing with α = .3.b. Compute a tracking signal for periods 5 through 14 using the initial and updated MADs. If limits of ± 4 are used, what can you conclude?
Practical Management Science
6th Edition
ISBN:9781337406659
Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Chapter13: Regression And Forecasting Models
Section13.7: Exponential Smoothing Models
Problem 29P: The file P13_29.xlsx contains monthly time series data for total U.S. retail sales of building...
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The manager of a travel agency has been using a seasonally adjusted
Period, Demand, Predicted
1 129 124
2 194 200
3 156 150
4 91 94
5 85 80
6 132 140
7 126 128
8 126 124
9 95 100
10 149 150
11 98 94
12 85 80
13 137 140
14 134 128
a. Compute MAD for the fifth period, then update it period by period using exponential smoothing with α = .3.
b. Compute a tracking signal for periods 5 through 14 using the initial and updated MADs. If limits of ± 4 are used, what can you conclude?
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