Total marketing effort is a term used to describe the critical decision factors that affect demand: price, advertising, distribution, and product quality. Let the variable
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EBK BUSINESS ANALYTICS
- Sometimes curvature in a scatterplot can be fit adequately (especially to the naked eye) by several trend lines. We discussed the exponential trend line, and the power trend line is discussed in the previous problem. Still another fairly simple trend line is the parabola, a polynomial of order 2 (also called a quadratic). For the demand-price data in the file P13_10.xlsx, fit all three of these types of trend lines to the data, and calculate the MAPE for each. Which provides the best fit? (Hint: Note that a polynomial of order 2 is still another of Excels Trend line options.)arrow_forwardAn automobile manufacturer is considering whether to introduce a new model called the Racer. The profitability of the Racer depends on the following factors: The fixed cost of developing the Racer is triangularly distributed with parameters 3, 4, and 5, all in billions. Year 1 sales are normally distributed with mean 200,000 and standard deviation 50,000. Year 2 sales are normally distributed with mean equal to actual year 1 sales and standard deviation 50,000. Year 3 sales are normally distributed with mean equal to actual year 2 sales and standard deviation 50,000. The selling price in year 1 is 25,000. The year 2 selling price will be 1.05[year 1 price + 50 (% diff1)] where % diff1 is the number of percentage points by which actual year 1 sales differ from expected year 1 sales. The 1.05 factor accounts for inflation. For example, if the year 1 sales figure is 180,000, which is 10 percentage points below the expected year 1 sales, then the year 2 price will be 1.05[25,000 + 50( 10)] = 25,725. Similarly, the year 3 price will be 1.05[year 2 price + 50(% diff2)] where % diff2 is the percentage by which actual year 2 sales differ from expected year 2 sales. The variable cost in year 1 is triangularly distributed with parameters 10,000, 12,000, and 15,000, and it is assumed to increase by 5% each year. Your goal is to estimate the NPV of the new car during its first three years. Assume that the company is able to produce exactly as many cars as it can sell. Also, assume that cash flows are discounted at 10%. Simulate 1000 trials to estimate the mean and standard deviation of the NPV for the first three years of sales. Also, determine an interval such that you are 95% certain that the NPV of the Racer during its first three years of operation will be within this interval.arrow_forwardWhen you use a RISKSIMTABLE function for a decision variable, such as the order quantity in the Walton model, explain how this provides a fair comparison across the different values tested.arrow_forward
- The annual demand for Prizdol, a prescription drug manufactured and marketed by the NuFeel Company, is normally distributed with mean 50,000 and standard deviation 12,000. Assume that demand during each of the next 10 years is an independent random number from this distribution. NuFeel needs to determine how large a Prizdol plant to build to maximize its expected profit over the next 10 years. If the company builds a plant that can produce x units of Prizdol per year, it will cost 16 for each of these x units. NuFeel will produce only the amount demanded each year, and each unit of Prizdol produced will sell for 3.70. Each unit of Prizdol produced incurs a variable production cost of 0.20. It costs 0.40 per year to operate a unit of capacity. a. Among the capacity levels of 30,000, 35,000, 40,000, 45,000, 50,000, 55,000, and 60,000 units per year, which level maximizes expected profit? Use simulation to answer this question. b. Using the capacity from your answer to part a, NuFeel can be 95% certain that actual profit for the 10-year period will be between what two values?arrow_forwardContinuing the previous problem, assume, as in Problem 11, that the damage amount is normally distributed with mean 3000 and standard deviation 750. Run @RISK with 5000 iterations to simulate the amount you pay for damage. Compare your results with those in the previous problem. Does it appear to matter whether you assume a triangular distribution or a normal distribution for damage amounts? Why isnt this a totally fair comparison? (Hint: Use @RISKs Define Distributions tool to find the standard deviation for the triangular distribution.)arrow_forwardThe model in Example 9.3 has only two market outcomes, good and bad, and two corresponding predictions, good and bad. Modify the decision tree by allowing three outcomes and three predictions: good, fair, and bad. You can change the inputs to the model (monetary values and probabilities) in any reasonable way you like. Then you will also have to modify the Bayes rule calculations. You can decide whether it is easier to modify the existing tree or start from scratch with a new tree.arrow_forward
- Porter five forces model, developed by Michael E. Porter of Harvard University in 1979, holds the purpose to analyse theindustry in order to determine the level of intensity regarding the competition and attractiveness of the industry. Theattractiveness of an industry is measured in terms of profit; more profitability means a more attractive industry and lowprofitability means a low attractive industry. Porter’s Five Forces model is a powerful management tool for analysing thecurrent industry profitability and attractiveness by using the outside-in perspective. Within the last decades, the model hasattracted some criticism because of the developing Internet economy. Due to an increasing significance of Digitalization,Globalization and Deregulation, the industry structure of the ‘Old Economy’ changed fundamentally. The ‘New Economy’ isnot comparable with the ‘Old Economy’, which is the basis of the Five Forces model. Moreover, the last decades haveshown that Information Technology…arrow_forwardSandy James thinks that housing prices have stabilized in the past few months. To convince her boss, she intends to compare current prices with last year's prices. She collects 12 housing prices from the want ads: 125,900 253,000 207,500 146,950 121.450 135,450 175,000 200,000 210,950 166,700 185,000 191,950 She then calculates the mean and standard deviation of the prices she has found. What are these two summary values?arrow_forwardA careful analysis of the cost of operating an automobile was conducted by accounting manager Dia Bandaly. The following model was developed: y = 3,600+ 0.16x, where y is the annual cost and x is the miles driven. a) If the car is driven 15,000 miles this year, the forecasted cost of operating this automobile = $ b) If the car is driven 26,000 miles this year, the forecasted cost of operating this automobile = $ (enter your response as a whole number). (enter your response as a whole number).arrow_forward
- To better plan for future growth of the restaurant, Karen needs to develop a system that will enable her to forecast food and beverage sales by month for up to one year in advance. Table shows the value of food and beverage sales ($1000s) for the first three years of operation. Food and Beverage Sales for the Vintage Restaurant ($1000s) Month First Year Second Year Third Year January 242 263 282 February 235 238 255 March 232 247 265 April 178 193 205 May 184 193 210 June 140 149 160 July 145 157 166 August 152 161 174 September 110 122 126 October 130 130 148 November 152 167 173 December 206 230 235 Managerial Report Perform an analysis of the sales data for the Vintage Restaurant. Prepare a report for Karen that summarizes your findings, forecasts, and recommendations. Include the following: A time series plot. Comment on the underlying pattern in the time series.…arrow_forwardFresh Food has recently carried out a survey of the demand for their seasonal fruits. They observed the followingoutcomes over the last seven months:QuantitySold Price Advertising8500 $ 2 $ 2,8004700 $ 5 $ 2005800 $ 3 $ 4007400 $ 2 $ 5006200 $ 5 $ 3,2007300 $ 3 $ 1,8005600 $ 4 $ 900Regression (Equation)QSold = 8536.213882 - 835.7223514 Price + 0.592228496 AdvertisingA. Estimate sales when the price is $50 and advertising is $100,000, stating any assumption that you need to make.B. If the firm charges $50 and cost per unit is $30 but increases advertising to $110,000, what conclusions can you derivein terms of revenues and profits?arrow_forwardUSING EXCEL SOLVER Check the image for clarification Q&H Company advertises during soap operas and football games. Each soap opera ad costs $75,000, and each football game ad costs $130,000. If S soap opera ads are purchased, they will be seen by 4S^1/2 million men and 22S^1/2 million women. If F football ads are purchased, they will be seen by 28F^1/2 million men and 10F^1/2 million women. The company wants at least 60 million men and at least 50 million women to see its ads. Determine how to minimize Q&H’s cost of reaching the required number of viewers. *Please show the equations in the cellsarrow_forward
- Practical Management ScienceOperations ManagementISBN:9781337406659Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.Publisher:Cengage,