Loose Leaf for Operations Management in the Supply Chain: Decisions and Cases 7e
7th Edition
ISBN: 9781260151954
Author: SCHROEDER, Roger G
Publisher: McGraw-Hill Education
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Chapter 10.S, Problem 4P
eXcel Management believes there is a seasonal pattern in the above data for the Donut-Hole Shop (see problem 2), with the first two days of a week representing one level; the third and fourth days representing a second level; and the fifth, sixth, and seventh days a third level. Thus, three seasonal factors have been suggested: R0 = .9, R-t = 1.3, and R-2 = .8.
- a. Simulate a
forecast of demand for days 1 to 7 using = 85, T0 = O, and α = β = y = .1. - b. Comment on the appropriateness of the forecasts developed.
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Students have asked these similar questions
Herman Hahn is attempting to set up an integrated forecasting and inventory controlsystem for his hardware store, Hahn’s Hardware. When Herman indicates that outdoorlights are a seasonal item on the computer, he is prompted by the program to input theseasonal factors by quarter.Unfortunately, Herman has not kept any historical data, but he estimates that firstquarter demand for the lights is about 30 percent below average, the second-quarterdemand about 20 percent below average, third-quarter demand about average, andfourth-quarter demand about 50 percent above average. What should he input for theseasonal factors?
A manager of a store that sells and installs spas wants to prepare a forecast for January, February, and March of next year. Her forecasts are a combination of trend and seasonality. She uses the following equation to estimate the trend component of monthly demand: Ft = 70 + 5t, where t = 0 in June of last year. Seasonal relatives are 1.10 for January, 1.02 for February, and .95 for March. What demands should she predict?
2.
The actual number of patients at Providence Emergency Medical Clinic for the first six weeks of this year follows:
Week
Actual No. of Patients
1
85
2
88
3
96
4
80
5
84
6
93
Clinic administrator Dana Schniederjans wants you to forecast patient numbers at the clinic for week 7 by using this data. You decide to use a weighted moving average method to find this forecast. Your method uses four actual demand levels, with weights of
0.500
on the present period,
0.250
one period ago,
0.125
two periods ago, and
0.125
three periods ago.
Part 2
a) What is the value of your forecast?
The value of the forecast is _________patients (round your response to two decimal places).
c) The mean absolute deviation based on a 2-day moving average = _______ degrees (round your response to one decimal place).
d)The mean squared error based on a 2-day moving average of…
Chapter 10 Solutions
Loose Leaf for Operations Management in the Supply Chain: Decisions and Cases 7e
Ch. 10.S - Ace Hardware sells spare parts for lawn mowers....Ch. 10.S - eXcel The daily demand for chocolate donuts from...Ch. 10.S - The SureGrip Tire Company produces tires of...Ch. 10.S - eXcelManagement believes there is a seasonal...Ch. 10.S - Management of the ABC Floral Shop believes that...Ch. 10 - Prob. 1DQCh. 10 - What is the distinction between forecasting and...Ch. 10 - Qualitative forecasting methods should be used...Ch. 10 - Describe the uses of qualitative, time-series, and...Ch. 10 - Qualitative forecasts and causal forecasts are not...
Ch. 10 - Prob. 6DQCh. 10 - What are the advantages of exponential smoothing...Ch. 10 - How should the choice of be made for exponential...Ch. 10 - Prob. 9DQCh. 10 - Prob. 10DQCh. 10 - Explain how CPFR can be used to reduce forecasting...Ch. 10 - Under what circumstances might CPFR be useful, and...Ch. 10 - Daily demand for marigold flowers at a large...Ch. 10 - The number of daily calls for the repair of Speedy...Ch. 10 - 3-The ABC Floral Shop sold the following number of...Ch. 10 - The Handy Dandy Department Store had forecast...Ch. 10 - 5-The Yummy Ice Cream Company uses the exponential...Ch. 10 - Using the data in problem 2, prepare exponentially...Ch. 10 - Compute the errors of bias and absolute deviation...Ch. 10 - eXcel At the ABC Floral Shop, an argument...Ch. 10 - Only a portion of the following table for...Ch. 10 - A candy store has sold the following number of...Ch. 10 - eXcel A grocery store sells the following number...Ch. 10 - Prob. 12PCh. 10 - The Easyfit tire store had demand for tires shown...Ch. 10 - Prob. 14P
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